Could LeBron James and the Lakers really blow this?

The specific shape of the first-round playoff matchup between the Los Angeles Lakers and Houston Rockets has changed quite a bit from how we initially expected it to look, for a number of reasons — chief among them, Kevin Durant’s ongoing injury woes and a brutal Game 3 collapse that pushed Ime Udoka’s club to the brink of elimination. The fundamental underpinnings of the matchup, though, remain largely the same: The Rockets are a big, athletic, physical, very good defensive team that should be able to impose its collective point-preventing will on a Lakers squad that, without Luka Dončić and (until Game 5) Austin Reaves, struggles to consistently generate and cash in on good looks.

It didn’t seem that way in the early stages of this series, when the Lakers were getting just enough LeBron James low-post playmaking, just enough complementary-piece shot-making, and just enough help from a defense that was holding the Rockets nearly 12 points per 100 possessions below their regular-season offensive efficiency mark. But if you scratched the surface on that 3-0 lead, it didn’t look quite as commanding as it seemed — and the Lakers don’t look quite as formidable, now that the Rockets have returned serve with a pair of wins that have extended their season, and this series, to Game 6 back in Houston on Friday.

“As much as we got to defend, you also got to score in this game, too,” James told reporters after Game 5. “I don’t think we did that at a good rate.”

That’s the thing, though: They weren’t scoring at a particularly good rate in the first three games, either.

Entering Game 4, the Lakers were scoring 112.4 points per 100 non-garbage-time possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass — a rate that would’ve had them rubbing elbows with the Chicago Bulls and Sacramento Kings in the offensive rankings during the regular season. Over the past two games, that already-bottom-five-caliber output has plunged even deeper into the offensive basement, with L.A. producing just 102.3 points-per-100 in Games 4 and 5.

That 10-point offensive rating gap is massive — the difference between a garden-variety bad offense and some real mid-Process Sixers-level stuff. Some of it stems from Udoka electing to more frequently downshift, leaning into more small-ball, switch-heavy lineups that can deploy Houston’s collective length and quickness to close up driving gaps and prevent the Lakers from prying open and expanding an advantage.

ASSOCIATED PRESS

“This is a top-10 defense the entire season,” Lakers head coach JJ Redick told reporters after Game 4. “It’s obviously very challenging without your two leading scorers to generate offense. We’ll take a look at the process again on that end, as well.”

Some of it can be attributed to L.A.’s series-long struggles to hold on to the ball. The Lakers committed 39 turnovers in Games 4 and 5 — including 10 by James, who took the blame for L.A. so frequently coming up empty by kicking away possessions. Twenty-seven of those 39 cough-ups — nearly 70% — were live-ball turnovers, according to PBP Stats. The Rockets made the most of those opportunities, scoring 24 points per game off Laker giveaways — a rate that would’ve led the league during the regular season.

A lot of it, though, comes down to just converting the chances they get.

“We just got to make shots,” Marcus Smart told reporters. 

After shooting 46.1% from 3-point range through the first three games of the series, the Lakers have made just 12 of their 49 triple tries (24.5%) in the last two. And while the 49 is arguably just as big a problem as the 12, it’s also not out of the ordinary for a team that finished tied for 22nd in the NBA in the share of its shots that came from beyond the arc during the regular season, and that is still missing its highest-volume long-ball generator with Dončić on the mend.

So: If the Lakers aren’t going to suddenly start jacking up a Mazzulla-ball level of long-range shots, they have to cash out on the ones they can create. In the first three games, they did just that. They were still taking a bunch of tough shots, generating the lowest shot quality of any team in the playoff field; they were just making them more frequently and efficiently than you’d expect, with Smart, Luke Kennard and Rui Hachimura all making at least half of their 3-pointers.

Over the last two, though, the Lakers’ long-range luck has evened out:

The Rockets have sold out to limit the looks for the formerly hot-shooting Lakers. All-Defensive Teamer Amen Thompson has cranked up the pressure on Kennard, holding the early-series hero to just one point on two shot attempts with one assist and two turnovers across nearly 60 possessions when they were matched up in Games 4 and 5, according to NBA Advanced Stats. (The just-returned Reaves took Kennard’s place in the starting lineup to begin the second half of Game 5; while Kennard did close the game, he went without a shot attempt in the fourth quarter.)

Shifting the length of Jabari Smith Jr. — 6-foot-11 with a 7-1 wingspan — onto Smart has helped vaporize his clean looks, too. The veteran guard is 6-for-15 from the field and 3-for-9 from 3-point range over the past two games, with 10 turnovers mitigating his seven assists.

“We’ve always been a good defensive team,” Smith Jr. told reporters after Game 5. “It’s just the mental side and where to be, who to close out on and tendencies, follow the game plan. We’ve just been locking in on that the last few games, and I think it’s been working.”

That much is clear. Games 4 and 5 were two of the Lakers’ dozen-worst half-court offensive performances of the campaign, and also represent the first time L.A. has been held under 100 points in consecutive games all season.

What’s less clear: Whether the Lakers can turn the tide back in their favor with their complementary pieces misfiring, with LeBron missing two-thirds of his shots outside the restricted area (and all nine of his 3s) since playing 45 minutes to pull out Game 3, with Reaves going 4-for-16 from the floor in his return as he shakes the rust off, with only one day off between Games 5, 6 and, if necessary, 7, and with Dončić not coming back any time soon.

The Lakers have reason for optimism: the prospect of Reaves finding his footing to provide a jolt to the offense, the continued verve shown in the middle by Deandre Ayton, and the vast libraries of big-game experience that LeBron can bring to bear in finishing off a cornered opponent that’s threatening to push him to the brink. But they’ve also got reasons to be concerned — the same ones they had two weeks ago, just arrived at in a circuitous fashion.

“We knew this was going to be a tough series, and it’s turned out to be exactly what we expected,” Smart said after Game 5. “Now the fun begins.”