The conference semifinal matchups are set. Cavs-Pistons and Sixers-Knicks in the East. Lakers-Thunder and Timberwolves-Spurs in the West. Which teams will advance to the NBA’s final four? And what has been the biggest takeaway of the playoffs so far? Let’s break it down.
Sixers-Knicks: Who wins?
Tom Haberstroh: Knicks in 7. I can’t wait to see the Joel Embiid and Karl-Anthony Towns matchup. I think Embiid gets the best of KAT in their minutes. But when projecting the Sixers, I just don’t know how much Embiid we’ll see. The Sixers big man has missed games in four out of the last five playoffs series his team has played, which doesn’t give me much hope that he can go the distance.
Kelly Iko: Knicks in 7. Something clicked for the Knicks in the first round with Towns serving as a high-functioning offensive hub. Turns out, involving one of the most versatile bigs in basketball works — the Knicks are 13-2 since Feb. 1 when Towns logs a usage rate of at least 25%, according to Cleaning the Glass. The 76ers can go in a few directions with the Towns assignment, but expect them to cycle through Paul George, Kelly Oubre and Embiid. What the Knicks ultimately do to slow down Embiid is, of course, the most critical part of this series. A healthy Embiid is the most dominant player in the East, but New York’s depth and physicality should push them over the top.
Ben Rohrbach: Knicks in 6. The matchups will be fascinating — Embiid overpowering Towns; Towns spacing out Embiid; New York going double big at times; a whole lot of mixing and matching — but the 76ers trusted only six players at the end of their upset series against the Celtics, and one of them was Embiid. Tyrese Maxey and Jalen Brunson may match each other shot for shot, but so much falls on Embiid’s shoulders, and I’m just not sure how long he can carry that load in the playoffs.
Dan Titus: Knicks in 7. Philly’s win over Boston was massive, but Embiid’s health is still up in the air and New York’s depth gives them the advantage. The Embiid-KAT and Brunson-Maxey matchups will be must-see, but the Sixers lack a true interior presence to control the glass and limit second-chance opportunities. Paul George and VJ Edgecombe could swing things, yet the Knicks’ superior defense and versatility should be the difference — especially if Embiid isn’t 100%.
Wolves-Spurs: Who wins?
Titus: Spurs in 5. The Wolves showed grit beating Denver without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo, but with Ayo Dosunmu likely out to start the series, they’re simply running out of bodies. Who’s checking Wemby? More importantly, who keeps pace with the Spurs’ second unit led by Dylan Harper? If Minnesota wasn’t missing three key offensive pieces, this would be closer, but they just don’t have the horses.
Rohrbach: Spurs in 6. The Timberwolves are tough, and they will be even tougher if they can work a healthy Edwards into the fold, but it appears their primary offensive creator will miss at least the start of the series with a hyperextended knee. Fall behind early in any best-of-seven set, and I’m afraid the Wolves could get swallowed whole by Victor Wembanyama. Meanwhile, San Antonio has so many ways to attack a Minnesota defense that is wearing thin.
Iko: Spurs in 6. I’m fascinated by the battle on the boards. The Wolves are the No. 1 rebounding team in the playoffs, and overwhelmed the Nuggets in the closeout game in ways that could be replicated against the Spurs, even with the very large Frenchman on the floor. Jaden McDaniels, Terrence Shannon Jr. and Naz Reid have enough collective crashing ability to give Minnesota more bites at the apple, although I worry about the composure of Shannon and Bones Hyland against a stout, aggressive Spurs unit. Portland, despite losing in five, was able to build big leads in segments, a sign of the youth that still exists in San Antonio, but the Spurs have enough to get it done.
Haberstroh: Spurs in 5. Rudy Gobert will need another Superman performance against Wemby in order to make this a real series, though I suspect Julius Randle will get the first stab at Alien duties. The Spurs’ guards and Wembanyama present a much tougher challenge for Minny than the gimpy Denver Nuggets.
Cavaliers-Pistons: Who wins?
Iko: Cavs in 5. I’ve yet to come down from my Cleveland-is-coming-out-of-the-East ledge and I won’t do so today. The Pistons’ defense is aggressive, brilliant and will do its absolute best to cause chaos whenever Donovan Mitchell or James Harden touch the basketball. I just don’t think it’ll be enough to mask Detroit’s lack of secondary scoring (outside another epic Tobias Harris breakout series), bench production relative to Cleveland’s, or collective postseason experience.
Titus: Cavs in 7. Detroit’s defense will grind this out and Mitchell’s struggles getting downhill against Toronto probably repeat here. Expect Detroit to pack the paint. But the Pistons’ challenge will be on offense. They are far too dependent on Cade Cunningham, and Harris acting as their secondary scoring option is troubling. Cleveland’s depth and perimeter shooting — something Orlando lacked — should swing this series in the Cavs’ favor. Evan Mobley and Allen must be aggressive to win this bruiser of a matchup.
Haberstroh: Pistons in 7. I think Jalen Duren breaks out. After a huge letdown against Orlando, Duren won’t have much trouble asserting himself in a matchup against Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. The Cavs’ frontline isn’t nearly as physical as Orlando’s big bodies, which gives Detroit a significant advantage inside.
Rohrbach: Pistons in 6. On one hand, can the Pistons keep pace with the Cavaliers’ offense? Their lack of secondary shot creation looked to be an issue against the Magic, until Harris found another gear. How long they can rely on that is anyone’s guess. On the other hand, Cleveland struggled, for the most part, to score against the Raptors’ defense. Wait until the Cavs get a load of Detroit, a team that found its 60-win form in the direst of circumstances.
Lakers-Thunder: Who wins?
Rohrbach: Thunder in 5. LeBron James works miracles. Winning a game against this Oklahoma City team, without Luka Dončić, would qualify as one. Dominating against the Rockets the way he did was nothing short of remarkable. Doing it against OKC’s ferocious defense is a different story. Never mind what Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will do to the Lakers. Even without Jalen Williams, who may return sooner than Dončić in this series, the Thunder should run away with it.
Haberstroh: Thunder in 5. The reports about Dončić’s availability, or lack thereof, is deeply concerning. I just don’t see how LeBron at 41 years old, with Dončić out for the foreseeable future, can withstand the physical track meet that will be this OKC series.
Titus: Thunder in 4. The Lakers’ defense looked great against a Houston team that couldn’t shoot, but OKC is a whole different challenge. Marcus Smart will likely draw SGA, but that won’t be enough, and Chet Holmgren is set to shine in this matchup. Even if Luka returns, it’s tough to see LA keeping up. OKC just put up 126 points per 100 possessions in the first round without even tightening the screws defensively.
Iko: Thunder in 5. This series will go one of two ways; either the Lakers do the proverbial “steal Game 1 on the road and momentarily shock the world” or “the emotional Game 3 on their return home.” James’ brilliance is enough to keep these games closer than expected, but the Lakers have no answer for SGA, Oklahoma City’s stable of two-way threats and one of the most prolific transition defenses, especially sans Dončić. The basketball world is patiently awaiting the eventual Thunder-Spurs heavyweight bout.
What’s your biggest takeaway from the playoffs so far?
Rohrbach: Defense is king. The teams that have looked the best — the Thunder and Spurs, specifically — are the league’s top defenses. I’ll even throw the Pistons and the Knicks in there. When they have looked their best, it has been the defense that has carried them to dominant stretches. Meanwhile, the Nuggets and Celtics — the NBA’s top two offenses during the regular season — struggled to score against the smothering defenses of the Timberwolves and 76ers, respectively. Offense comes and goes, but defense is the constant, or however the saying goes.
Titus: Anyone can win the East. I’ve got the Knicks making the Finals, but with three of the first four series going seven games, it’s clear there’s no truly dominant team. The margin for error is razor-thin — whoever emerges will have to find a combination of making in-series adjustments, executing and surviving the war of attrition.
Iko: Your biggest strength can ultimately become your undoing. Teams that put extra emphasis on creating extra chances via offensive rebounds — that had underlying shot-creation issues outside of heliocentric figures — learned the hard way about the perils of playoff basketball. Five of the top seven teams in offensive rebounding rate are now eliminated from the postseason altogether. The real-time tradeoff between sending more bodies to the boards as opposed to getting back in transition and setting up a defensive shell has been fascinating to see unfold.
Haberstroh: No lead is safe. In-game or in-series. It’s been an incredible postseason full of surprises, drama and physicality, but the player health variable still looms large unfortunately. Injuries and 3-point variance are creating such chaos that it’s hard to get a handle of each team’s true strength. That makes it hard to predict, but enthralling to watch.