It’s been a season of hills and valleys for the Oregon Ducks on the diamond, but the program still finds itself in a position to fight for the ability to host a regional in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
Oregon began the season red-hot, winning its first nine games and emerging victorious in its first eight series. However, the Ducks fell into a slump at the plate in late March and early April, dropping a pair of games to Portland and losing a series on the road to Michigan.
The Ducks have looked unstoppable at the dish at different times this season, and other times have shut down opposing offenses with a starting rotation able to go deep into games and a bullpen that could battle in tough situations. Now, as the Ducks approach the home stretch of the regular season schedule, the hope is that everything can align to finish strong and secure a regional at PK Park.
D1Baseball released its latest batch of projections for the NCAA Tournament field. Oregon earned the 16th and final top seed to host a regional round in the projected field. That provides some assurance that the Ducks are headed in the right direction, but there is still some work to do.
Oregon’s projected regional includes Boston College as the No. 2 seed, Kentucky as the No. 3 seed and Saint Joseph’s as the No. 4 seed. The Ducks hosted a regional last season as the No. 12 overall seed, but they were stunningly upset by Utah Valley and Cal Poly, going winless in the postseason on their own field.
What’s at stake this weekend?
Redemption is on the mind of the Ducks and coach Mark Wasikowski, and it’s all on the line starting this weekend in Los Angeles. Oregon will take on UCLA, which is ranked No. 1 in the polls and projected to land the top overall seed by D1Baseball.
The Bruins have already secured the Big Ten regular-season championship and are a perfect 24-0 this season in conference play. Oregon is No. 27 in the RPI rankings with the No. 99 strength of schedule, placing the Ducks on the outside looking in at a regional hosting bid.
Taking down UCLA, ranked No. 1 in the RPI rankings, would provide a huge boost to Oregon’s chances at hosting. Winning the series, or even winning one game, would greatly benefit the Ducks.
However, if the Ducks get swept, the odds of securing a regional at home will be bleak. The Ducks will host USC at home for their final series of the regular season, which would also provide a decent boost to Oregon’s RPI ranking if they can claim the series, but if the Ducks fail to get the job done in Los Angeles, they will be playing more for their Big Ten tournament positioning rather than worrying about a regional.
In D1Baseball’s projected field, USC is a No. 2 seed. Oregon has wins over Oregon State, the projected No. 15 overall seed, and Nebraska, a projected No. 2 seed in the regional in Corvallis.
The Big Ten isn’t as strong a conference in baseball as the SEC and ACC, both of which are much deeper in talent. Instead, the Big Ten is top-heavy with power programs out west like Oregon and UCLA, meaning there is less margin for error during the season. For as great a season as the Ducks have had, they don’t have much wiggle room left if they want to host.
That makes this trip to Los Angeles the turning point in the season. Staying home for the regional round and securing one of the top seeds in the conference tournament is a season-long goal for the Ducks. Hosting a regional rather than facing the idea of traveling into SEC territory to start the NCAA Tournament could completely change Oregon’s postseason outlook.
Will Sanford will likely get the ball to start the series on the mound for the Ducks this Friday. UCLA could hand the ball to right-hander Wylan Moss for a third consecutive Friday start, or the Bruins could see projected first-round pick Logan Reddemann return to the fold after missing a pair of starts with arm fatigue.
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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Oregon baseball projects to host regional ahead of series vs. UCLA
