The regular season is done and conference tournaments are now under way in NCAA baseball as selection day quickly approaches.
One automatic bid has already been awarded, with Yale taking the Ivy League crown.
While UCLA remains the projected No. 1 overall seed with the top RPI, Georgia Tech is hot on its heels having taken over the top spot in KPI and DSR, the two metrics the committee uses.
This season, the selection committee is seeding all of the 2-seeds and assigning them to regionals in groups of four. That was done here, while the 3- and 4-seeds were assigned based on geography and other factors.
NCAA baseball hosting battle
The race for the final few hosts has gotten intriguing. Here, the final two spots went to Oregon and Kansas over Wake Forest, Southern Cal and Oregon State.
The battle will come down to what the committee values most. Oregon and Kansas have the cleanest resumes, with strong Quadrant 1 records and few bad losses, and Kansas is also helped by winning the Big 12.
Oregon State and Wake Forest rate out well in metrics like RPI, KPI and DSR but have not performed as well against top competition. Wake Forest is 6-14 in Quadrant 1, while Oregon State has four Quadrant 4 losses.
NCAA baseball tournament bubble watch
NC State, Troy and East Carolina were chosen as the final three teams in the field over the First 4 Out of Southeast Missouri, Texas State, Michigan and Kent State.
East Carolina and NC State rate out significantly better than the others in metrics: East Carolina is 45 in RPI, 32 in KPI and 36 in DSR, while NC State is 42 in RPI, 37 in KPI and 33 in DSR.
One interesting head-to-head comparison will be between conference foes Texas State and Troy. Troy put up a better conference record and beat the Bobcats head-to-head, and the Trojans also fare better in Quadrant 1 at 7-9.
Texas State has slightly better metrics than Troy but went 2-9 in Quadrant 1. The Sun Belt tournament could help sort out these teams, and Troy, which is just two games above .500 overall, cannot afford to go two-and-done.
Michigan took the biggest fall after going 0-4 on the week. With an RPI of 51 and a Quadrant 1 record of 4-10, there’s little argument for the Wolverines to be in the field right now and they need to win games in the Big Ten Tournament.
NCAA baseball bracket projections
An asterisk * denotes projected automatic bids. Automatic bids were given to the highest remaining seed in each conference tournament.
Teams in bold have already clinched an automatic bid.
Last 4 In: Arizona State, NC State, East Carolina, Troy
First 4 Out: Texas State, Southeast Missouri, Michigan, Kent State
Los Angeles Regional
- UCLA (1)
- Boston College (31)
- UC Santa Barbara*
- San Diego State*
Lawrence Regional
- Kansas* (16)
- Wake Forest (17)
- Kentucky
- SIU-Edwardsville*
Tallahassee Regional
- Florida State (8)
- Oklahoma (25)
- Campbell*
- Bethune-Cookman*
College Station Regional
- Texas A&M (9)
- Coastal Carolina (24)
- TCU
- Tarleton State*
Auburn Regional
- Auburn (4)
- Miami-FL (30)
- Miami-Ohio*
- Binghamton*
Starkville Regional
- Mississippi State (13)
- Southern Cal (19)
- Louisiana
- Bucknell*
Austin Regional
- Texas (5)
- Oklahoma State (26)
- UT-San Antonio*
- Lamar*
Morgantown Regional
- West Virginia (12)
- Virginia (23)
- Liberty
- Wright State*
Atlanta Regional
- Georgia Tech (2)
- Mercer* (32)
- High Point*
- St. John’s*
Eugene Regional
- Oregon (15)
- Oregon State (18)
- Gonzaga*
- Illinois-Chicago*
Tuscaloosa Regional
- Alabama (7)
- Jacksonville State* (27)
- Virginia Tech
- Rider*
Gainesville Regional
- Florida (10)
- Cincinnati (22)
- Troy
- North Florida*
Athens Regional
- Georgia (3)*
- UCF (29)
- NC State
- Yale*
Hattiesburg Regional
- Southern Miss (14)
- Ole Miss (20)
- Arizona State
- Long Island*
Chapel Hill Regional
- North Carolina (6)
- Tennessee (28)
- East Carolina
- Saint Joseph’s*
Lincoln Regional
- Nebraska (11)
- Arkansas (21)
- Missouri State
- Oral Roberts*
Aria Gerson covers Vanderbilt athletics for The Tennessean. Contact her at agerson@gannett.com or on X @aria_gerson.
This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: NCAA baseball bracket projections for conference tournament week
