The Dallas Cowboys double dipped in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft, selecting defense at the No. 11 and No. 23 spots. Originally set to draft at No. 12 and No. 20, the team grabbed their preferred targets while upgrading two fifth-round selections to fourth rounders via a couple of trades with the Miami Dolphins and Philadelphia Eagles.
They did so to acquire the services of the class’ top safety, Ohio State’s Caleb Downs, as well as their preferred back-half-of-the-round edge rusher in Malachi Lawrence. Recently, ESPN took on the task of predicting how the rookie class would fare statistically across 10 offensive and defensive categories, and they see significant impact from both of the team’s first-round picks.
Caleb Downs: 82 Tackles
In predicting Downs to notch 84 tackles, ESPN’s Mike Clay sees that as being tied for the fourth-best total among the class’ rooks, sharing the leading safety total with the Bears‘ Dillon Thieneman. NFC East linebackers Sonny Styles (123) and Arvel Reese (116) for the Commanders and Giants sit atop, while the Colts‘ CJ Allen lands at No. 3 (94).
The most tackles by a rookie safety over the past decade is 147 by Jalen Pitre in 2022. Only 12 others reached 80 during that span, with three hitting 100. First-rounders Downs and Thieneman are positioned as every-down starters in Dallas and Chicago, respectively. Both should put up solid tackle numbers in Year 1.
Malachi Lawrence: 5.7 sacks
No, Lawrence won’t end up with 7/10th of a sack, but this is the second-highest projection for rookies behind the New York Jets’ David Bailey, who was taken at No. 2 overall. What’s interesting is that Lawrence has two players seemingly on the depth chart ahead of him, in veteran Rashan Gary (acquired via trade with Green Bay) and second-year pro Donovan Ezeiruaku.
Lawrence also was just the fourth edge rusher taken in the first round behind Bailey, Rueben Bain (No. 15), and Akheem Mesidor (No. 22). The UCF product will slide into the team’s new 3-4 front as an outside linebacker, and has Dallas fans hoping he can come close to what DeMarcus Ware was for the org in a similar role two decades ago.
Bailey’s 7.6 sack projection sets the pace, with Bain right behind Lawrence at 5.6.
Caleb Downs: 2 Interceptions
Downs’ projection of two picks ties him with two others for the pole position. Cornerbacks Treydan Stukes (Raiders) and Mansoor Delane (Chiefs) share the honor. Thieneman and the Dolphins’ Chris Johnson round out the top five.
This article originally appeared on Cowboys Wire: ESPN predicts Cowboys rookies Downs, Lawrence to lead class in stats