The latest version of the NBA’s Draft Lottery reform proposal has been sent to owners ahead of their May 28 vote, according to multiple league sources. The “3-2-1” proposal is largely the same as originally reported, and details have emerged on a rule that had previously lacked clarity. First, here’s what’s the same:
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There will be 37 lottery balls allocated to 16 teams. The bottom three teams receive two (5.4% odds), teams four to 10 receive three (8.1%), the ninth and 10th play-in seeds in each conference would receive two (5.4%), and the loser of the seven vs. eight play-in game would receive one (2.7%).
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All 16 picks would be drawn in the lottery. The three teams with the worst records can pick no lower than 12th. Every other team can land first to 16th.
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Teams that trade picks are not allowed to protect slots 12, 13, 14, or 15.
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Adam Silver will have more power to punish tanking by altering lottery odds or changing where a team is picking.
The above proposed rules remain exactly as they were written when the NBA first made this 3-2-1 pitch in early May. But there is also a rule stating that no team can land first in two consecutive drafts, or in the top five in three consecutive drafts.
Front offices have been wondering: Does the streak attach to the team holding the pick on lottery night or to the original team whose record is attached to the pick?
The streak attaches to the original team, according to league sources. In other words, if Team A has Team B’s pick in the 2027 draft as a result of a trade and that Team B pick lands first, then Team B’s own pick in 2028 would not be eligible to land first, whether it’s retained by Team B or owned by a different team. But Team A, by virtue of selecting first using Team B’s pick in 2027, would still be eligible to pick first in 2028 with its own pick or any other team’s pick.
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“In the event a team’s pick is drawn in the lottery in a position where it is not permitted to be, then such team’s pick would be moved down to the first permissible position,” the league wrote in its proposal sent to teams. Continuing the above example, this would mean that if Team B popped up first in the 2028 draft, that pick would automatically be moved to the second pick instead.
Additionally, the NBA has decided to start the clock on these two-year and three-year streaks by looking back to the 2025 and 2026 drafts, according to league sources. In practice, this would mean if Washington wins the lottery again in 2027, it moves to second.
Let’s look at what this proposed rule change actually means for teams right now and in the future:
Teams can’t land first in two consecutive years
The first-pick rule is retroactive to the 2026 draft, meaning the Washington Wizards can’t land the top pick again in 2027 if the rule passes next Thursday as currently written. Even if the Wizards trade their unprotected 2027 first-round pick to another team that pick can still not land first. The league’s case for the lookback is strong. Without it, the rule starts at zero. The Wizards just tanked and won the lottery. With a clean slate, the team whose behavior most justifies the rule’s existence would face no consequences for it. That’s the league’s argument for reaching back, and it isn’t a bad one.
The league made this choice to close a loophole. Otherwise, any team approaching a streak could just trade that pick to a team that hadn’t been at the top of the draft. The new team has no streak of its own, so the cap disappears in the trade. Attaching the streak to the original team means the cap stays with the pick no matter who ends up making the selection. This approach also doubles as a tanking deterrent: trade for a future pick from a bad team and you’re buying the risk that team stays bad enough to trigger a cap. Picks from bad teams will be riskier to trade for and have less value, which is the point.
That makes sense. But there are 40-plus unprotected picks that have already been dealt over the next seven years. All of those trades were made under a completely different set of rules, which could hurt teams across the league.
Imagine if the Milwaukee Bucks miss the playoffs again next year. The swap rights to their 2027 first is owned by the New Orleans Pelicans and the swap rights to the Bucks’ 2028 first is owned by the Portland Trail Blazers. On 2027 lottery night, if that pick lands first, that means the Pelicans are awarded that pick. Under the current proposal, that would mean in 2028, the Blazers can’t receive the first pick — despite making that trade in 2023 when Damian Lillard was sent to Milwaukee.
If the league’s priority is to eliminate tanking, adding this rule on top of existing trades penalizes teams for deals made under rules that no longer apply.
Teams can’t land top five in three consecutive years
The top-five pick rule will date back to 2025. The Utah Jazz picked fifth in 2025 and second in 2026. Under the new rule, they can’t land in the top five in 2027.
But the Jazz traded that pick to the Memphis Grizzlies in February for Jaren Jackson Jr., which means Memphis won’t be able to receive it since streaks will be triggered by the original team, not the team holding the pick. Two issues here.
First, the framework. The NBA explains this rule under a section titled “Pick Restrictions For Repeat Lottery Winners.” Is landing the fifth pick really a winner? One year ago, the Jazz were distraught when their pick landed fifth, because the true franchise-changers that teams want to win are commonly landed with the first or second pick. In the future, if a team ends up fifth one year, then fourth the next, should they really be punished for landing first in the third year? Or even fifth again? I would argue no, that the top-five rule reaches too far.
I am understanding of wanting to prevent a team from picking first in consecutive years. But anything beyond that feels like a massive overreach that could cause more problems than intended when the goal is supposed to be to eliminate tanking.
Second, there’s the reality that the Jazz did trade that pick. Now the Grizzlies have it — through the rights of a pick-swap structure. But if this rule passes, Memphis wouldn’t be able to receive an unprotected pick. Grizzlies fans would obviously be crushed by the news. This pick was the most valuable of the assets Memphis got back for one of its stars, and it happened under a set of rules that didn’t include a three-year streak cap. That Jazz-to-Grizzlies pick is being retroactively devalued because of a league’s arbitrary decision to start the clock in 2025, but it also gives us an example of what could happen in future years to any team.
For example, in 2029 the Houston Rockets own the swap rights to an unprotected first-round pick via the Phoenix Suns that was acquired in return for Kevin Durant. The Suns were a play-in team this year, and they realistically could be again — or miss the playoffs entirely — in each of the next two seasons. If their 2027 first ends up landing fifth, and then their 2028 first lands third, that would mean the pick Houston traded for can’t end up in the top five in 2029. A trade that Houston made in July 2025 just got worse in May 2026.
Are we sure this rule makes any sense?
What the NBA should do
Exempting every traded unprotected first already in circulation gets too complicated, but the harm to Memphis is guaranteed for 2027 and serves as an example for what could happen in 2028 or 2029 involving picks that were traded under a previous set of rules. Even if Utah still had the pick, it doesn’t seem quite right the team would be disallowed from landing fifth in 2027 given the fifth pick isn’t exactly a prize that teams are intentionally losing games for.
I am more understanding of disallowing Washington from landing the first pick again in 2027. However, the NBA should strongly consider the way this rule is being presented and how it will be received by the masses.
Starting the clock retroactively means the flattened odds the league is selling aren’t the odds the lottery will actually run. With the Wizards barred from the top pick and the Jazz-to-Grizzlies pick barred from the top five, every other lottery team’s odds redistribute upward — a team with 8.1% odds would walk in with closer to 9.7% odds.
The 3-2-1 system would debut in a form more complicated than the one it was voted in to have. It doesn’t make much sense to me to launch a brand new system with a set of rules that don’t even apply in its launch year. So many of the league’s rules are complicated enough. This 3-2-1 lottery proposal is only a three-year trial anyway. It applies through the 2029 NBA Draft, at which point the league will reconsider alternatives. We don’t need to overcomplicate things for three years in a way that could unfairly punish some teams, confuse things for fans and quietly devalue picks traded under different terms. The fix is simple: Start the clock in 2027 for the rule that prevents a team from landing first in consecutive drafts. Remove the top-five streak rule but keep it on the table for 2029 when the lottery inevitably gets tweaked again.
I’m all-in on the 3-2-1 reform. Flattened odds, draft relegation and hard caps on consecutive top picks are rules that give the NBA a real shot of finally putting an end to tanking. But the proposal hasn’t been approved yet. Owners don’t vote until Thursday. There’s still time to iron out the wrinkles.