While a simple World Cup bracket isn’t easy, given the various permutations with third-place teams advancing, picking groups is straightforward — whether you’re a soccer junkie or a casual fan.
December’s draw was seeded, meaning that each group has one of the top teams in the world according to FIFA’s rankings. The exceptions are the three groups with one of the host nations, which were also seeded. That makes the groups with Mexico, Canada and the United States more balanced, since none of those three teams would have been among the top dozen teams. The favorites to win the host nations’ groups are around a coin flip, compared to most of the other nine groups with favorites projected to win 60% to 80% of the time.
It’s easy to follow the odds and pick favorites, and doing so probably means your entry in Yahoo’s Soccer Pick ‘em with FOX One game will do well, but not extremely well. To reach the highest echelon of pools like this, you have to hit picks that few people make.
To help you, I’ve picked the winners and runners-up for all 12 World Cup groups, with a few upsets along the way:
Group A: Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, Czechia
Right off the bat, here’s a group ripe for taking a chance. Host Mexico is the favorite but is rife with injuries that open up this group for South Korea or Czechia, with South Africa likely to bring up the rear. Czechia has a proven striker in Patrik Schick, who co-led EURO 2020 with five goals, and a good mix of veterans and youth behind him. The Czechs hadn’t made a World Cup since 2006, but they’ve been at eight straight EUROs, so the big-tournament experience is there. I don’t hate a shot on South Korea either, but I’ll go with Czechia to win Group A ahead of second-place Mexico.
Group A winner: Czechia
Group A runner-up: Mexico
Group B: Canada, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Qatar, Switzerland
If you ask someone which nations have reached the knockout stage at each of the last three World Cups, three of the four answers would likely be guessed quickly: Argentina, Brazil and France. The unlikely fourth is Switzerland, which finished group runner-up at all three tournaments, behind Brazil (twice) and France.
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With no traditional power in this group, Switzerland is a quiet favorite and my easy pick to finish first. Eighteen Swiss players return from previous World Cups, and the other three teams in the group have combined for a single World Cup win ever (Bosnia & Herzegovina in 2014). Host Canada should be able to ride the home wave and talented striker Jonathan David to the runner-up spot.
Group B winner: Switzerland
Group B runner-up: Canada
Group C: Brazil, Morocco, Haiti, Scotland
This is not the group with which to take a major chance. Brazil and Morocco are far better than Haiti and Scotland, so the only question is which of the two to slot in first. Brazil is the obvious favorite, but I lean Morocco here.
Four years ago, the Atlas Lions became the first African team to reach the World Cup semifinals, and they haven’t slowed down since then, losing once on the field over the last two years — and that loss to Senegal in the Cup of Nations final was later overturned. Brazil’s aging midfield does not inspire confidence, and I don’t think head coach Carlo Ancelotti will have the lineup figured out by the group opener versus Morocco.
With a win in that game, Morocco should cruise to first place in the group, and Brazil should be a comfortable second.
Group C winner: Morocco
Group C runner-up: Brazil
Group D: United States, Paraguay, Australia, Türkiye
Your Group D pick may come down to head versus heart.
As the home team, the United States is the group favorite and the personal favorite of many. I can’t go against my heart, and the U.S. does have a case as the actual best team in the group top to bottom. This hasn’t been the best season for Americans abroad, but with a legitimate striker in Folarin Balogun, dangerous wingers in Christian Pulisic and Tim Weah and Chris Richards marshaling the backline, the Stars and Stripes have the pieces to win this group. They’ve beaten Paraguay and Australia in the last year, though they did lose 2-1 to Türkiye, which has arguably the group’s two best players (Real Madrid’s Arda Guler and Juventus’ Kenan Yildiz) and should be the runner-up.
Group D winner: United States
Group D runner-up: Türkiye
Group E: Germany, Curacao, Ivory Coast, Ecuador
Here’s another group in which I like a major upset.
Germany is, of course, the favorite but doesn’t have the high-end talent typical for a German squad. I don’t think Germany will miss the knockout stage as in the previous two tournaments, but Ecuador is poised to play spoiler behind a stout defense. In 18 World Cup qualifiers, Ecuador conceded only five goals, tying a record low for CONMEBOL qualifying. Ecuador may be overly reliant on 36-year-old Enner Valencia for goals, but with most people likely to pick Germany, this is a good opportunity to zag and take the South American side.
Group E winner: Ecuador
Group E runner-up: Germany
Group F: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia
Deciding which teams to pick to advance is easy for me here, but settling on an order between Netherlands and Japan is difficult.
Both are clearly more complete teams than Sweden and Tunisia. The Dutch took eventual champion Argentina to penalties four years ago, and they’re just as good or better now. Japan has a pleasing style and a strong Europe-strewn squad despite losing two starters to injury. Japan topped a group that included Germany and Spain at the 2022 World Cup, and I don’t hate picking Samurai Blue to repeat the first-place feat, but I’m going with the favored Dutch here, with Japan right behind them.
Group F winner: Netherlands
Group F runner-up: Japan
Group G: Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand
Four years ago, Belgium surprisingly went out in the group stage, but it’s hard to see the Red Devils repeating that feat. I’ll stick with the favored Belgians to win this group, and then it’s a coin flip between Egypt and Iran (sorry, New Zealand). Egypt has the star power of Mo Salah and Omar Marmoush on the wings. Iran excelled in AFC qualifying with a veteran squad that has a lower ceiling but a higher floor, and I’ll take Mehdi Taremi and Co. to go through in second place.
Group G winner: Belgium
Group G runner-up: Iran
Group H: Spain, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay
This is the most top-heavy group of them all, and the simplest to pick. Spain is one of the two tournament favorites and an easy choice as group winner. With a fierce midfield and back line, Uruguay is far better than debutant Cape Verde and low-ceiling Saudi Arabia. I’m not overthinking this one, and there’s no reason to zag. Give me Spain to win the group ahead of second-place Uruguay.
Group H winner: Spain
Group H runner-up: Uruguay
Group I: France, Senegal, Iraq, Norway
France is the other tournament co-favorite for good reason. The 2022 runner-up has as much attacking firepower as any team, maybe any two teams, in the tournament. France also has an ultra-pragmatic coach in Didier Deschamps, whose conservative style is as frustrating as it is effective.
Behind France, Norway will be the most popular pick, powered by the Premier League duo of Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard., but I’ll take Senegal to be group runner-up. The Lions of Teranga won Cup of Nations on the field this year, and they’re at a third straight World Cup. After a round-of-16 exit in 2022, they’re back with a veteran squad across the field, headlined by Sadio Mane up top and built on Kalidou Koulibaly and Edouard Mendy at the back.
Group I winner: France
Group I runner-up: Senegal
Group J: Argentina, Algeria, Austria, Jordan
Defending champion Argentina is still filled with talent as usual, but shouldn’t be as reliant on Lionel Messi as in 2022. Attackers are plentiful, though the defense is batting injuries. Either way, Argentina should win a relatively weak Group J with ease.
I want to take Algeria’s wing-centric attack to finish second, but I think Austria’s Red Bull style will overrun the Desert Warriors midfield, as Ralf Rangnick’s side makes its first World Cup knockout stage since 1954.
Group J winner: Argentina
Group J runner-up: Austria
Group K: Portugal, Congo DR, Uzbekistan, Colombia
This is another severely top-heavy group, with Portugal and Colombia far superior to Uzbekistan and potential surprise squad Congo DR. I’m not getting too saucy here, but I am taking Colombia to win the group ahead of second-place Portugal.
Those two will meet in Miami for the group finale, which promises to be one of the best games and best atmospheres in the group stage. I like this Luis Diaz-led Colombia team a lot, and I’m not convinced Portugal has yet figured out the best way to use (or not use) Cristiano Ronaldo, so I’ll take Los Cafeteros to win the group in an upset.
Group K winner: Colombia
Group K runner-up: Portugal
Group L: England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama
The final group is the most difficult to pick in some ways.
England and Croatia seem like the obvious choices, and I will go with England, trusting Thomas Tuchel to infuse offense into a team that has relied on defense to reach consecutive EURO finals. Half of Croatia’s lineup could be over 30, led by 40-year-old Luka Modric, and while it’s hard to doubt them after consecutive World Cup semifinals, this feels like the tournament that the wheels finally come off.
Ghana has a veteran head coach in Carlos Queiroz and Premier League wingers Antoine Semenyo and Mohammed Kudus, but I’ll take long-shot Panama to finish second playing in its home region. Head coach Thomas Christiansen knows how to handle better teams, and box-to-box midfielder Coco Carrasquilla could break out on the global stage.
Group L winner: England
Group L runner-up: Panama
