The Atlanta Falcons have high hopes for their offense in 2026, but even with an elite arsenal of weapons, including Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson, their quarterback competition has tempered expectations for the upcoming season.
The team replaced Kirk Cousins with a considerably cheaper veteran, signing former Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to a one-year, $1.2 million deal in free agency. Tagovailoa will battle Michael Penix Jr. for the starting job in 2026.
At wide receiver, Darnell Mooney is out while Jahan Dotson, Olamide Zaccheaus and Zachariah Branch are in. Kyle Pitts returns at tight end following his breakout season. The team also brought back veteran Austin Hooper for more tight end depth.
ESPN’s Mike Clay put out complete 2026 NFL season projections for all 32 teams. Here’s a look at the Falcons’ projected offensive stats in 2026.
ESPN projection: Falcons passing stats
Based on the numbers below, it appears Clay has Tagovailoa as the team’s projected starter. The veteran QB has both the health and experience advantage, however, Tagovailoa’s projected numbers — 2,169 passing yards, 10 TD and 8 INT — indicate a midseason QB change. Penix is projected to throw a more favorable 1,884 passing yards, 9 touchdowns and five interceptions.
- Tua Tagovailoa: 2,169 yards, 10 TD, 8 INT
- Michael Penix: 1,884 yards, 9 TD, 5 INT
ESPN projection: Falcons rushing stats
Bijan Robinson will lead the way again in 2026. Clay has the former top-10 pick projected for over 2,000 all-purpose yards again (1,371 rushing and 711 receiving yards). As for newcomer Brian Robinson, he’s projected for 560 rushing yards and four touchdowns. This would be solid production in place of former Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier.
- Bijan Robinson: 1,371 yards, 8 TD
- Brian Robinson: 560 yards, 4 TD
- Michael Penix: 77 yards, 1 TD
ESPN projection: Falcons receiving stats
Drake London is projected to bounce back with a 102-catch, 1,257-yard season to lead the Falcons in 2026. This would be beneficial for London, who is looking for a long-term extension. As you can see below, Jahan Dotson is projected for an underwhelming 403 yards and two touchdowns. Third-round pick Zachariah Branch was projected for just 21 catches for 252 receiving yards and one touchdown.
- Drake London: 102 catches, 1,257 yards, 7 TD
- Kyle Pitts: 80 catches, 862 yards, 3 TD
- Bijan Robinson: 76 catches, 711 yards, 3 TD
- Jahan Dotson: 32 catches, 403 yards, 2 TD
- Olamide Zaccheaus: 28 catches, 294 yards, 1 TD
- Zachariah Branch: 21 catches, 252 yards, 1 TD
- Austin Hooper: 21 catches, 182 yards, 1 TD
- Brian Robinson: 9 catches, 59 yards,
- Charlier Woerner: 4 catches, 33 yards
ESPN projection: Falcons team offense
Overall, the Falcons are projected to score 19.9 points per game next season. Clay has Atlanta passing for 4,053 total yards, and rushing for over 2,000 yards in Year 1 of Kevin Stefanski’s offense. The Falcons are projected for 20 passing touchdowns, 13 rushing scores and 339 total points.
- Points scored: 339 (19.9 PPG)
- Passing yards: 4,053 (238.4 YPG)
- Rushing yards: 2,052 (113.5 YPG)
- Passing TD: 20 (13 INT)
- Rushing TD: 13
The Falcons will be getting back to work at OTAs this week. Make sure to check back for updates this afternoon.
This article originally appeared on Falcons Wire: Atlanta Falcons: ESPN projects offensive stats in 2026