The moment Jannik Sinner walked off the court at Roland Garros on Thursday, having been defeated by the unseasonable European heat wave as much as Juan Manuel Cerundolo, the French Open became a tournament that will be determined only in part by who plays the best tennis.
The next week and a half in Paris is going to be mostly about the mind.
Without Sinner or the injured Carlos Alcaraz in the draw, one of two things will happen:
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Either 39-year old Novak Djokovic, who is essentially a part-time player on the ATP Tour these days and struggles physically in best-of-five set matches, will win his 25th Grand Slam and prove definitively that the second tier of contenders on the men’s side is as weak as it’s ever been.
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Or, conversely, somebody who’s never won a major title will step up and take advantage of an opportunity that may only happen once in their career.
So who’s it going to be?
Alexander Zverev, arguably the best player in the history of men’s tennis without a Slam, has turned into a basket case every time he’s gotten close to the big prize. The pressure on him now is going to be unlike anything he’s ever experienced.
Casper Ruud, tennis’ quintessential nice guy and a two-time French Open finalist, might finally have his big shot. But are you really going to trust someone who has never shown any killer instinct to grab this moment by the throat?
Are any of the 19-year old hot shots like Joao Fonseca or Rafael Jodar truly ready for something this big?
After more than 20 years where a small handful of players have dominated most of the majors, a fascinating situation is unfolding at Roland Garros.
But also a situation that could make the current crop of contenders a generational laughingstock.
If the 39-year-old Djokovic wins this tournament for the fourth time, it will rightly be celebrated as the monumental achievement it is. Whatever Djokovic’s legend already is, winning a Slam title this close to age 40 would amplify his claim as the greatest of all time by a level or two.
On the other hand, what would it say about the collective makeup of the 20-somethings not named Alcaraz or Sinner that if they let a physically declining old guy who barely plays on the tour wrestle away the best chance they will ever have to snag a major?
It would be borderline unforgivable. An indictment of a mentally soft generation of tennis players that can’t make it happen when it matters. A disgrace.
With all due respect to Djokovic — and he deserves mountains of it — this should not be happening.
Look, the guy is still an amazing athlete just for still being in the fight and wanting it as much as he does after winning his gold medal at the 2024 Olympics and completing any goal he ever had in tennis.
It is not easy to have that discipline to train, to stay in amazing physical shape, to keep trying to find ways to improve and adjust your game when there’s no obvious motivating goal. An aging body only makes it more of a challenge — and Djokovic quite often comes onto the court these days and looks like he’s on the verge of physically falling apart.
There is absolutely no reason for him to still be doing this other than this reality: Outside of Sinner and Alcaraz, he smells weakness. And with good reason.
Just go back to the 2020 U.S. Open — the last time a men’s major was this wide open. If you remember, Roger Federer was injured. Rafael Nadal decided not to make the trip because of COVID concerns and his preparation for the French Open, which had been moved to the fall. Djokovic was there but got defaulted when he smacked a ball in anger and hit a linesperson in the throat.
Suddenly, someone was going to win a Slam who wasn’t really supposed to. And the tennis that took place as a result was … well, let’s just say it reflected the enormity of the moment for pretty much everyone. That final — won in a fifth-set tiebreaker by Dominic Thiem over Zverev, who led two sets to none early on — produced some of the nerviest, most pressure-impacted, tentative tennis you will ever see on such a big stage.
It was not pretty.
But it was also a lesson — perhaps for Djokovic most of all. Even as he conceded at the 2025 U.S. Open that holding up in best-of-five matches against both Alcaraz and Sinner in the same tournament was unlikely, he knew that it would only take one injury or a bad day for this kind of opportunity to land in his lap.
Now here comes a Roland Garros where everyone remaining in the draw will think they have a shot to win it. That may be more of a curse than a blessing for most of them.
If all these young contenders don’t have what it takes to step up to the moment or push through their mental scar tissue at the business end of Slams, Djokovic will be more than happy to pick up the pieces.
And the crazy part is that Djokovic often just looks like another guy when he plays these days — except when the pressure’s on. Since his surprise Australian Open final, Djokovic has played two tournaments, going 2-2 with losses to Jack Draper and Dino Prizmic.
Even in his second round match Wednesday, Djokovic needed nearly four grueling hours to dispose of 74th-ranked Valentin Royer.
But for the rest of the field, beating him at a Slam these last couple years is as much of a mental challenge as a physical one — and guess who’s got the best mind in the history of tennis? Even at 39, that doesn’t go away.
If this turns into a test of who’s got the fearlessness to meet the biggest opportunity of their career, history says they will all crumble and Djokovic will go home with one more big trophy.
If the Zverevs and Ruuds of the world let that happen when they’re in their physical prime, they deserve to be mocked — and Slam-less — for the rest of their careers.