Knicks vs. Spurs.
Name an X-factor in this series.
Jones: Josh Hart. The Knicks will need his defense and ability to defend multiple positions because the Spurs guards will attack. They will also need him to handle the moments when the Spurs deploy Victor Wembanyama to guard him. The shot making (or taking) may draw the attention, but keep an eye on what Hart does off-ball. His ability to keep things flowing, working to get to dribble handoffs or setting off-ball screens could get the Knicks some openings. I will note a (healthier) De’Aaron Fox could flip all the math we are calculating in the build-up.
Devine: Mitchell Robinson’s broken-and-surgically-repaired right pinky. If he’s more or less good to go, able to grab offensive rebounds, finish above the rim and be an active shot-blocker/disruptor, he could be a massive weapon for Mike Brown to deploy against Wembanyama. If he’s limited, unavailable or ineffective, New York’s chances of stifling the Spurs drop significantly.
Iko: Julian Champagnie and Devin Vassell’s joint spacing. Similar to the Western Conference finals, I expect the Knicks to look to force turnovers in the middle of the floor, ceding open 3s and making a Spurs team yet to get a good shooting performance from both Champagnie and Vassell to punish them. Most of the attention will be focused on Wembanyama, anyway, and Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper and De’Aaron Fox’s drive-and-kick ability remains top-notch. San Antonio just needs to continue to knock down shots.
Haberstroh: Julian Champagnie. He had three points in the NBA Cup loss and 36 points in the Spurs win a couple weeks later. That’s what we call an X-factor. Karl-Anthony Towns may be “hid” on Champagnie so the Knicks center doesn’t get in foul trouble. Whoever can make hay with that matchup should swing the series.
Rohrbach: Dylan Harper. Since Magic Johnson’s 42-15-7 in Game 6 of the 1980 NBA Finals — the pinnacle moment in NBA playoff history for rookies — only Sam Cassell in 1994 and Manu Ginobili in 2003 have played more than 400 postseason minutes for a champion in his freshman season. And Harper doesn’t just play. He’s been an integral part of what the Spurs do and will be as both a defender against Brunson and as a scorer off the bench. Harper has a chance to be a special talent, and what better place to launch a Hall of Fame career than the NBA Finals.
After Game 1, everyone’s going to be talking about _______.
Devine: The end of the Knicks’ postseason winning streak, and whether anyone anywhere has any answers for Wembanyama.
Rohrbach: The Knicks, for better or worse. The NBA’s biggest media market hasn’t won a title since 1973, hasn’t reached a Finals since 1999, and that’s the biggest story going in all of sports — with the acknowledgement that a potential Wembanyama coronation is an awfully big story. If the Knicks are in a 1-0 hole, trying to figure out the impossible puzzle that is Wembanyama, or if they’re leading 1-0 — three wins from glory — either way the Knicks will lead the conversation.
Jones: Whatever Victor Wembanyama did in his Finals debut. At each step of this run he’s showcased a new layer to his game. The defense continues to speak for itself, but how will he look to put his stamp on this series from the beginning? What will the offensive aggression look like on the grandest stage of them all? His passion and energy in front of that world will likely be the discussion.
Iko: StephonCastle’s matchup with Jalen Brunson, and whether or not the guard who finished a few votes shy of an All-Defensive team was able to successfully contain him like he did Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Haberstroh: How exhausted Wembanyama was. Coming off a grueling seven-game marathon, Wembanyama’s discipline and stamina will be tested. I’m reminded of the Game 1 block party against Rudy Gobert and how the Spurs Frenchman burned out quickly in the loss to Minnesota. The Knicks will do everything in their power to try to wear him down and it might just work.
What’s your Finals prediction, and who’s the Finals MVP?
Haberstroh: Spurs in 5. Wemby, Finals MVP. I’ve backed them all season long, and there’s no turning back now. The piranhas of the Spurs backcourt should give Brunson more fits than he’s had all postseason, and that’ll free up Wembanyama to wreak havoc in the paint. Wemby stands to be the youngest Finals MVP since Magic in 1980.
Iko: Spurs in 6. Wemby, Finals MVP. I was in the locker room following a memorable Game 7 win on the road, and those guys are extremely confident going up against this Knicks team. As Mitch Johnson said, sometimes the lack of experience gets overblown and the inverse is leaned on way too heavily. San Antonio is young, hungry, talented and capable of more. Should be a fantastic series.
Devine: Knicks in 6. Jalen Brunson, Finals MVP. I finished my big Finals preview with that prediction, and I’ll stick with that here. (Consistency. Ethics.) After being named the Most Valuable Player of the NBA Cup and Eastern Conference finals, Brunson adds a third trophy to his case, and he never has to pay for anything in New York again. I didn’t say “never pay for a drink again.” I said never pay for anything.
Jones: Knicks in 6. Jalen Brunson, Finals MVP. There is a chance the Spurs (once again) prove me wrong by containing Brunson and taking the Knicks’ movement off the table with Wembanyama at the center of it. But it feels like the Knicks have the defensive personnel to slow the Spurs’ guards down. They have won games in different ways, had Brunson and KAT hold up on both ends and are fully bought in. If they are going to get it done, it will be in the Garden.
Rohrbach: Spurs in 7. Victor Wembanyama, Finals MVP. A new era is upon us.