There has been a subtle change in the way Fifa is determining league tables for the 2026 World Cup – and it might have a huge impact on the final group matches.
For the first time at a World Cup, Fifa is using head-to-head records instead of group goal difference as the primary tiebreaker for teams level on points.
And the change is already being felt, with Haiti and Turkey both going out of the World Cup despite only being three points behind the team in third.
Co-hosts Mexico and the United States, meanwhile, are guaranteed to top their groups with a game to spare.
Until 1966, goal ratio was used to separate teams – this involved dividing a team’s goals scored by goals conceded. In 1970, Fifa moved to goal difference – until now.
It brings Fifa in line with Uefa, which has always given priority to the results between teams.
The logic is that assessing the direct performance of two teams is fairer, because it removes freak results – such as Germany’s 7-1 win over Curacao.
Others say that taking overall goal difference is better as that compares the total record in the group.
Fifa first introduced the new system at last year’s Club World Cup, where Flamengo won Group D ahead of eventual tournament winners Chelsea after two matches.
Here’s how it changes things at this World Cup.
How the rule change is making an impact already
There are two main knock-on effects.
The first is a greater chance of teams not only advancing but winning the group before matchday three.
The other is that teams can be eliminated after two matches – this would not be possible if goal difference was used first.
Under the old format, a team would need to be four points clear of second to secure top spot after two games.
That was rare because it required the other two fixtures of the first two rounds in the group to both be draws.
Now it is possible to be three points clear and have first place in the bag.
It can happen in a few ways.
It requires either two draws, or first place to have beaten the team(s) on three points.
We have already seen it in Group A and Group D.
Mexico won their first two games and sit on six points – three points clear of South Korea, with the Czech Republic and South Africa on one point.
As Mexico have already beaten South Korea they cannot be overtaken if both countries end on six points. So Mexico have won the group.
They know they will play a last-32 tie in Mexico City against a third-placed team.
The same applies to the United States, who are three points ahead of Australia and Paraguay but have beaten both teams
Thus, the US have won the group and will head to Santa Clara to play a third-placed team.
There’s a knock-on effect, too.
Mexico effectively have nothing to play for when they meet the Czech Republic next Wednesday, and could opt to rest players.
And that creates an imbalance the Czech Republic could benefit from, though they can only qualify automatically if South Korea lose to South Africa.
But in a tournament where the best third-placed teams go through, it could be important.
The system is also used at the European Championship, where the best third-placed teams advance.
It also impacts the other end of the table.
Haiti, three points behind Scotland, are out because they lost to Steve Clarke’s men.
Similarly, Turkey are bottom and three points behind Australia and Paraguay. As they lost to both of those countries they are eliminated.
It means that Turkey v United States in Inglewood on Wednesday is a dead rubber for both teams.
Who else could win their group on matchday two?
For top spot to be determined after round two, a few things need to be considered:
- The top team must win both their games
- The two other fixtures must have draws, OR
- First place must have beaten the team or teams on three points
Groups B and C will go to the final day.
GROUP E
Germany win the group with a victory over Ivory Coast if Ecuador do not win against Curacao.
Ivory Coast will seal top spot with a win if Curacao do not beat Ecuador.
GROUP F
Sweden will qualify as group winners if they beat the Netherlands and Japan do not win against Tunisia.
GROUP G
No team can seal top spot on matchday two.
GROUP H
No team can seal top spot on matchday two.
GROUP I
No team can seal top spot on matchday two.
GROUP J
Argentina take top spot with a win over Austria as long as Jordan do not beat Algeria.
Austria can do so with a victory if Algeria do not win against Jordan.
GROUP K
Colombia will seal first place if they beat DR Congo and Portugal do not win against Uzbekistan.
GROUP L
England win the group with a victory over Ghana if Panama do not win against Croatia.
Ghana will be group winners with a victory if Croatia do not beat Panama.
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What are all the tiebreakers?
When teams are level on points, this is the order used to separate them:
- Head-to-head points between the teams in question. If there are three teams involved, a mini-league is created removing the results against the fourth team
- Head-to-head goal difference
- Head-to-head goals scored
- Group goal difference
- Group goals scored
- Fair play (yellow card -1, red card for two cautions -3, straight red card -4, yellow then straight red -5)
- Fifa world ranking
- Better position in progressively older Fifa world ranking
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