Brazil vs Japan prediction: Vinicius Junior can be the difference-maker against stubborn Samurai Blue

After co-hosts Canada got the knockout phase underway with their last-gasp victory over South Africa on Sunday night, there’s a packed slate of round-of-32 fixtures on Monday.

The early kick-off promises to be a doozy, as perennial contenders and five-time World Cup winners Brazil take on a Japan side that impressed during the group stage.

The prize for the winners in Houston will be a last-16 tie against either Ivory Coast or Norway. And while Brazil will be favourites to progress, can a plucky Japan side upset the odds?

Brazil vs Japan prediction

Japan went through the group stage unbeaten (Image credit: Getty Images)

Both teams were able to negotiate the group stage unbeaten, with Brazil’s toughest test being a 1-1 draw against 2022 semi-finalists Morocco, while Scotland and Haiti were both swept aside without too much drama.

For Japan, an opening 2-2 draw with the Netherlands was the kind of resilient performance that we have come to expect from the Samurai Blue in recent years, before Tunisia were thrashed 4-0. A 1-1 draw with Sweden was enough for both sides to then progress.

Carlo Ancelotti is aiming to lead Brazil to a sixth World Cup title (Image credit: Getty Images)

Recent history suggests an entertaining clash at the home of the Houston Texans, with Japan claiming a 3-2 win, to record their first victory over Brazil in 14 attempts when the two teams met last October.

This is a run that has seen Japan down the likes of England, Ghana and Scotland, with Hajime Moriyasu able to forge a side that are consistantly competative against any opponent.

Both sides netted seven times in the group stage, with Japan now on a 10-match unbeaten run, during which they have scored in every game, so our first prediction here is that there will be goals.

But do Japan have the quality and depth to go toe-to-toe with their storied opponents, should this one turn into something of a shootout? Even with Raphinha again ruled out for the Seleção, Carlo Ancelotti’s men will likely have too much attacking quality for Moriyasu’s men.

The key player in this one is likely to be Vinicius Junior, who netted four times in the group stage and appears to be rejuvenated under Ancelotti at this World Cup, no doubt thanks to their history going back to their days together at Real Madrid.

Brazil vs Japan score prediction

Brazil will be hoping to seal a last-16 place (Image credit: Getty Images)

We’re backing a thriller, with Japan giving as good as they get before the South Americans use their depth and experience to find an extra gear late on.

  • Score prediction: Brazil 3-2 Japan