A big talking point across MLB this season is that walks are way up across the league. Walks per game are up at 3.69, which is the highest rate since 1951 and the only time since 1999 it’s been over 3.50. I tried to figure out why that was and what impact it would have on the game, both from a real-life and fantasy standpoint.
My initial thought, since horizontal movement is also up this year, is that there may be a difference in the seams on the ball, but that idea seems less plausible after I spoke to a few pitchers. Tobias Myers of the New York Mets suggested that it may be weather: “Maybe colder weather…I know here we’ve had a lot of wind, which a lot of guys are getting crazy movements on their pitches, but it’s more on like the sinkers and the sweepers.”
That could certainly be a component of it, and we know that offense is going to heat up when the weather heats up (more on that later).
The other common hypothesis is that it’s ABS-related. However, ABS hasn’t added any walks when you look at specific challenges overturned. A look at Statcast’s detailed breakdown would seem to refute that. So far, league-wide, batters have gained 50 walks on challenges. However, catchers/pitchers have eliminated 60 walks on challenges. Now, this doesn’t mean that at-bat didn’t end in a walk, but it’s telling us that ABS challenges alone have not led to more walks.
But what if the ABS is impacting pitchers in another way?
“I think it’s probably more guys thinking about it a little bit more,” suggested Myers. “Maybe guys are pushing, pressing a little bit, trying to throw strikes.” That was a theory that was supported by Twins ace Joe Ryan: “Maybe because you’re thinking about it too much, that makes sense…That might be something subconscious. People are thinking about a little bit. Maybe guys who are living on the edges a lot, or maybe trying to make the perfect pitch.”
It might be worth an article looking into pitchers who have previously gotten the most called strikes on pitches outside of the zone, but that may have been a better focus in the offseason. Still, I may come back to that idea.
Another component of how ABS could be impacting the walk rate is in how it’s changed the strike zone, specifically the top of the strike zone, which many pitchers believe is lower this year. The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen wrote a great article specifically about that, so I’d encourage you to check that out.
What that means for us is that this increased walk rate is likely here to stay. So if pitchers are going to be walking more batters, it’s logical to ask which pitchers are going to be most impacted by it. Especially since we know that offense in baseball always improves across the league as the weather gets warmer. With that in mind, I wanted to look at pitchers who ALREADY have an elevated walk rate, so pitchers who are giving hitters free bases, but haven’t been hurt by it yet.
I took all starting pitchers with over 20 innings pitched who have a walk rate that’s higher than the league average. Then, I looked at which of them also had BABIPs, HR/FB rates, and Left On Base Rates (LOB%) that were much better than the league average. The theory behind this is that, since these pitchers are walking more guys than most, if home runs or balls in play or inherited runners start to move towards the league average, these pitchers are going to be allowing far more runs than they currently are, and we’re going to see regression in WHIP and ERA.
So, which pitchers might be most impacted by this as the season goes on?
All data is BEFORE games on Saturday, April 25th
Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Regression Candidates
Pitchers with unsustainable left on base rates
As of Friday, April 24th, the league average LOB% for all starting pitchers is 72.3%
You’re going to see Jose Soriano up here as the first name and say, “When are you just going to believe?” The truth is that I do believe. It shouldn’t be a surprise to suggest he is going to regress because he’s clearly not going to have a 0.24 ERA. One big reason he’s going to regress is this 100% left on base rate (LOB%). That’s just not sustainable. Soriano also has an above-average walk rate, and that has always been a bit of an issue for him, so I expect it to hang around. However, the top four names on this list (Gavin Williams, Robbie Ray, Chase Burns) are not pitchers I’m “worried” about or dropping. But we should acknowledge that they’re running high walk rates right now, and their LOB% is not sustainable. There will be regression, but that doesn’t mean they’ll become bad.
Taj Bradley is another pitcher who will appear multiple times in this list. You’ll notice later that he has an HR/FB% of 0%. Yeah, that’s not going to sustain. Now, I have not been a huge Bradley believer in the past. The command simply hasn’t been good enough, and that’s not to say that he walks a lot of hitters; it’s more than he struggles to consistently hit his spots, which leads to those stretches where he gets lit up a bunch. He has been better this year, and the changes to the pitch mix are ones that I buy. Also, his .333 BABIP is really high, so that should be in for some positive regression. That being said, his LOB% is 14% above league average, the HR/FB rate is going to go up, and he has struggled to maintain consistency in the past, so I remain a little wary.
We should note that the TaJ Bradley and Gavin Williams paragraphs were written on Friday afternoon, so their stats have not been updated since their poor starts on Friday night. But, I guess maybe we were onto something here.
I am less enthusiastic about Chad Patrick. I know he has a 2.35 ERA right now, and I’m sure you can’t sell him to anybody, but you should look to jump off this train at the first sign of trouble. The walk rate is only slightly above-average, but the LOB% is well above-average, the BABIP is .260, which is well below the league average, and his HR/FB% is .05%. There’s an argument that he should have appeared in all of these sections. I should also note that, of the pitchers in this article, Patrick has the largest gap between his SIERA (5.51) and his ERA (2.35).
I was high on Matthew Liberatore in spring training because of the modifications he made to his changeup, but the whiffs have not been there, and I don’t think they’re coming. So even if the walk rate isn’t that bad, the LOB% is 15% above league average, and the .267 BABIP is below the league average of .285. I just think the tight rope is so hard to walk when you don’t really miss bats, and I think Liberatore is going to be more of a 4.50-ERA type of arm.
Connelly Early also appears in this section, and I don’t love the 12% walk rate. I think Early is one of those pitchers we alluded to above who nibbles and likes to hit the edges of the strike zone and is not getting those calls or chases right now. His LOB% is also 12% above-average, which will be tough to maintain, but the HR/FB rate and BABIP are close to the league average, so there is some solace there. I don’t love that he has a 9.6% SwStr% this year after posting much higher marks last season. The way he is pitching now is much closer to his 4.40 SIERA, but I just think he’s also a better pitcher than this and will settle somewhere in the mid-3.00 ERA range.
Pitchers With Low BABIPs
As of Friday, April 24th, the league average BABIP for all starting pitchers is .285
Even as somebody who digs J.T. Ginn, I don’t think he’s necessarily a 3.73 ERA arm. The sinker is a good pitch, and that will keep the BABIP low, but not .193 low. Those hits are going to start falling. I also don’t love his home park, so that worries me.
I was out on Grant Holmes coming into the season because I didn’t believe the talk that his elbow was fine. What we’re seeing is a pitcher who really only has a slider, and that slider has far worse command this season than it did last season. The .208 BABIP that Holmes is running is never going to stay, and he’s just not missing enough bats in general for me to be overly optimistic. I think he’s closer to his 4.55 SIERA than his 3.41 ERA, and I’d be looking to deal him if I could.
Michael King has been super inconsistent this season, and I don’t love that his strikeout rate is only 22%. That being said, the sinker is still a good pitch, and the sweeper and changeup combination should work well off of it. I’m shocked that he has a 2.28 ERA with how he’s pitched, but I also think he can pitch better than this. So, on one hand, a 12.5% walk rate with a .239 BABIP and a 0.37% HR/FB rate likely means that more damage is coming; yet, I think he can clean up the walk rate and also start missing more bats, so I’d still project a low 3.00-ERA from King.
Jameson Taillon and Seth Lugo are veterans who we know will give us runs of solid production during a season. Yet, we also know that Lugo is not going to have a 0% HR/FB rate, and both of them should see some BABIP regression. Taillon has a career .283 BABIP, while Lugo has a .282 mark, so both of them will inevitably start giving up some more hits, which will lead to some more runs with the walk rates. Lugo has a 1.15 ERA, so regression coming for him makes some sense.
I’m sure most of you viewed Eduardo Rodriguez and Andre Pallante as streamers who are due for regression, so this shouldn’t surprise you.
Pitchers with Depressed HR/FB Rates
As of Friday, April 24th, the league average HR/FB% for all starting pitchers is 10.7%
Obviously, the pitchers who have a HR/FB rate of 0% are due for some regression here; that shouldn’t be a shock. That includes Taj Bradley, Seth Lugo, and Landen Roupp again, plus Edward Cabrera, Carmen Mlodzinski, and Dylan Cease.
José Soriano also shows up on here, which is the third time we’ve seen him on these lists (regression is coming). That’s also relevant to Cease because both pitchers are due for regressions, but, again, should not be considered “grenades” or “landmines” or whatever term you want to use. As we discussed above, you know Soriano isn’t posting a 0.24 ERA, just like you know Cease isn’t posting a 2.10 mark. I will say, I still think Cease is a better bet for a lower ERA than Soriano based on track record and this research. Cease will allow home runs this season, but his BABIP against is .365, so he’s going to allow fewer baserunners as the season goes on, and his LOB% is right around league average. Plus, Cease has more strikeout upside than Soriano, so I think he has less regression coming his way.
I’m a big fan of Landen Roupp, but we can’t ignore the 10.9% walk rate and 0% HR/FB rate. Roupp has also shown the ability to miss bats more consistently this season, so I’m still a fan of his, but I do think the walks will begin to hurt, especially since his BABIP is pretty low at .246. But Roupp has a 2.78 ERA right now, so a little bit of regression doesn’t mean you should move on.
Edward Cabrera‘s stats have been adjusted after his last start, but he did have a 0% HR/FB. He also started using his sinker more in his last start, so his walk rate fell from 12% to 9.2%. If he continues to use the sinker more often, his walk rate will fall, but he has always walked more hitters than average. If he goes back to using his four-seamer a lot, I’m going to be open to trading Cabrera away. The walk rate will just be too high to sustain a 2.73 ERA.
Carmen Mlodzinski has been a bit of a fantasy darling because of his potential strikeout upside, but he’s also sporting a 9.3% walk rate, which is higher than the league average. He’s one of the few 0% HR/FB ratio pitchers on here. I know he’s not giving up tons of hard contact and just a 27% flyball rate overall, but some of them are going to leave the yard. However, he’s also sporting a .352 BABIP, so digging in for this exercise has actually made me think that Mlodzinski could still produce in this range as the season goes on. Maybe more of a 3.70 or 3.80 ERA arm and not a 3.28 guy, but you’ll take that
I’m not as optimistic about Tigers teammates Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize (sorry, Sporer). Nothing about Flaherty supports a 3.47 ERA. His strikeout rate is down to 22%, his HR/FB% is due for clear regression, and did you see that walk rate? 18.5%!? There is just no way you can pitch to a usable ERA with that mark, and his WHIP is already killing you. Mize is in a much better situation with his walk rate (8.6%), but he’s also due for some ratio regression, with his 5.9% HR/FB rate and 83% left-on-base rate. Mize is missing more bats this year, which is great, but he has also allowed a 47% fly-ball rate, so balls are going to leave the yard when the weather warms up. Expect something closer to his 3.49 SIERA; I’d probably say he winds up a bit higher than that.
I like Jack Kochanowicz. I’ve written a lot about the changes to his pitch mix. However, I’ve also said that I like him as a streamer now, when I would not have streamed him ever last season. I do not believe he is a 3.10 ERA pitcher. His 13.9% walk rate is a major concern, but as you saw with Soriano, the Angels are OK walking guys this season. They have made the biggest improvement in baseball in keeping pitches out of the heart of the plate and have some of the biggest gains in pitchers thrown in the waste and chase zones. They are trying to limit hard contact and make hitters chase, and they are OK walking guys if they need to. That can work for Soriano because he has better pure stuff than Kochanowicz and will induce chases that Kochanowicz won’t. Kochanowicz is rocking a .214 BABIP that will absolutely go up and a .04 HR/FB that will go up, even though it will remain low because he’s a sinker baller. This is a mid-4.00 ERA arm that you can use in good matchups.