Almost every aspect of the Kentucky Derby is unpredictable, from the race outcome to the weather.
There always seems to be a chance of rain during the Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs. And, according to the National Weather Service, Kentucky Derby Day has included rain at some point nearly half of the time over the last 150 years.
Will May 2 see rain for the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby? Or will the 3-year-old colts trample on a fast track?
Here’s what to know about Saturday’s forecast and Kentucky Derby weather history:
Kentucky Derby 2026 weather forecast
A mix of clouds and sunshine with a high of 64 degrees and low of 43 degrees with winds blowing northwest at 10-15 miles per hour are expected for the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 2 at Churchill Downs, according to The Weather Channel’s website.
What was the 2025 Kentucky Derby weather?
Sovereignty won the 151st Run for the Roses on a sloppy track after 0.37 inches of rain fell on Churchill Downs last year. It ended a five-year streak of Derby horses running on a fast track. The high of the cloudy day was 65 degrees.
How often does it rain on Kentucky Derby Day?
According to the National Weather Service, 72 out of 150 Derby Days (48%) have experienced rain at some point during the day.
What was the hottest Kentucky Derby temperature?
Louisville reached a high of 94 degrees during the Derby in 1959. Tommy Lee won the race that year.
What was the coldest Kentucky Derby temperature?
The 1940 and 1957 Derbies were a chilly 36 degrees when the race took place with Gallahadion and Iron Liege, respectively, taking the crown.
Reach Louisville football, women’s basketball and baseball beat writer Alexis Cubit at acubit@gannett.com and follow her on X at @Alexis_Cubit.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Kentucky Derby 2026 weather forecast, Louisville, KY predictions May 2