Chennai Super Kings: Hanging by mathematics more than momentum
CSK’s defeat to SRH has left them needing the most improbable combination of results among the teams still mathematically alive.
They are on 12 points from 13 matches and can only reach 14 with a win against GT in Ahmedabad.
But 14 alone is unlikely to be enough unless almost everything else breaks in their favour.
For CSK to have a genuine chance, they need:
- Beat GT
- RR to lose both remaining games and stay on 12
- PBKS to lose to LSG and remain on 13
- KKR to lose at least one match and stay on 13 or below
- DC to lose to KKR and remain on 12
That is a narrow path already, and even then net run rate could complicate matters. CSK’s NRR of -0.016 is better than DC’s and marginally better than KKR’s, but not strong enough to feel comfortable if multiple teams finish on 14.
The biggest problem for CSK is that they no longer fully control the ceiling of rival teams. RR can still get to 16, PBKS to 15 and KKR to 15.
Kolkata Knight Riders: Two wins or nothing
KKR are the only other team apart from RR among the chasing group with two remaining games. Sitting on 11 points from 12 games, they simply cannot afford a defeat.
Wins against Mumbai Indians and Delhi Capitals would take KKR to 15 points. Anything less leaves them eliminated.
But even two wins may not fully settle matters. KKR’s qualification chances are heavily tied to what RR and PBKS do.
The ideal KKR scenario looks like this:
- KKR beat MI and DC
- RR lose at least one of their remaining two matches
- PBKS lose to LSG and remain on 13
- GT beat CSK
If all of that happens, KKR finish on 15 and likely grab the fourth spot outright.
There’s also a scenario where KKR finish tied on 15 with PBKS. In that case, net run rate decides the final position. KKR’s current NRR of -0.038 means they cannot merely scrape through victories; margins could matter.
What helps KKR is momentum. Unlike the others around them, they have won four of their last five games and suddenly look like the side peaking at the right time.
Delhi Capitals: Beat KKR and pray for collapses elsewhere
DC’s equation is the toughest among the realistic contenders because they have only one match left and an inferior net run rate.
At 12 points from 13 games, even a win over KKR only takes them to 14. That means Delhi cannot qualify on their own terms.
For DC to qualify, they need:
- Beat KKR
- RR to lose both remaining matches and stay on 12
- PBKS to lose to LSG and remain on 13
- CSK to lose to GT
But even then, NRR could become a major factor. DC’s current NRR of -0.871 is comfortably the weakest among all contenders. If qualification comes down to a tie on points, Delhi are almost certainly disadvantaged.
Ironically, DC may still have a huge role in deciding the playoff race even if they do not qualify. A win over KKR knocks Kolkata out and potentially opens the door for RR or PBKS. A defeat, meanwhile, could directly send KKR through.