We’ve arrived at the 50-game mark, just under one-third of the way through the marathon that is the MLB season. Teams have completed 16 of their 52 scheduled regular-season series, and the standings have begun to take shape in a way that can no longer be waved away as small-sample nonsense.
A lot of wins and losses have already been banked, meaningfully altering clubs’ chances of qualifying for October based on how much of a cushion they’ve earned or how much ground they’ll need to make up. Memorial Day is a common time on the baseball calendar to start taking the standings a little more seriously, so with that benchmark right around the corner, let’s take a look at which teams’ playoff odds have shifted the most since Opening Day.
For the purposes of this exercise, we’ll utilize FanGraphs’ playoff odds from March 24 (the day before the Yankees and Giants’ Opening Night game), and compare them to those on the morning of May 22.
This past week featured a ton of divisional action that impacted these percentages, and another weekend of consequential matchups — Rays at Yankees, Cardinals at Reds, Dodgers at Brewers, among others — is on deck.
There’s plenty of time left for teams to play their way in or out of the playoff picture. But for now, here are the teams who have diverted most dramatically from their preseason projections, for better or for worse:
Detroit Tigers — 20-31 (fifth place in AL Central)
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Preseason odds: 45% to win AL Central, 60% to make postseason
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May 22 odds: 12% to win AL Central, 24% to make postseason
A disastrous stretch for Detroit continued this week as the rival Guardians strolled into Comerica Park and took all four games, stretching their lead in the standings to a staggering 9.5 games over the suddenly last-place Tigers, all before June has arrived. The Tigers mustered just 13 runs during their seven-game homestand against Toronto and Cleveland, never scoring more than three in a single game, a brutal encapsulation of the offensive struggles that have plagued them for much of the season. Injuries to Gleyber Torres and Kerry Carpenter haven’t helped matters, but the lineup’s severe shortcomings make it difficult to feel particularly optimistic about Detroit turning things around, even if ace Tarik Skubal can return to the rotation sooner rather than later than as his expedited recovery from arthroscopic elbow surgery seems to suggest he could.
Skubal then becomes a fascinating character in an entirely different respect if the Tigers continue to scuffle. Initially, Skubal’s injury appeared likely to keep him on the shelf until after the trade deadline, but the fact that he is already throwing bullpens indicates that the two-time reigning Cy Young winner could be back well before the Aug. 3 stopping point for swaps. This is where the Tigers’ postseason odds — rapidly dwindling, but not yet dire — become particularly relevant. Should Skubal return and thrive while Detroit continues to dwell in the basement of the American League, the Tigers could be faced with the difficult question of whether it is best for the organization to trade the pending free agent Skubal for a hefty prospect package rather than hold onto him for the slim chances of rallying to a postseason spot and risk losing him to the open market for nothing more than a draft pick. President of baseball operations Scott Harris and the Tigers’ front office won’t just be scanning FanGraphs of course — every team has their own models that forecast their chances of reaching October that will influence their plan of attack come deadline time.
There’s still time to find their groove and render this ominous possibility moot, but if that internal number indicating their playoff odds sinks to an especially unfriendly number, Harris will need to at least consider what seemed unthinkable not all that long ago: trading Skubal in a season many expected Detroit to be contending.
New York Mets — 22-28 (fourth place in NL East)
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Preseason odds: 38% to win NL East, 80% to make postseason
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May 22 odds: 3% to win NL East, 27% to make postseason
The Mets have played somewhat better since their miserable 10-21 start that featured a 12-game losing streak. That early skid — in tandem with Atlanta’s spectacular start — has all but eliminated New York’s chances of claiming its first division title since 2015, something many fans in Queens were hopeful could be in play based on the club’s dramatic offseason roster overhaul and $350+ million payroll. A path to the postseason via wild card remains, but the Mets will likely need to get healthy for that consolation prize to be claimed, as a slew of injuries to the position player group have made it extremely challenging for their offense to find any rhythm. The Mets are paying a combined salary of $201 million to Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, Bo Bichette, Jorge Polanco, Marcus Semien and Luis Robert Jr., and they have appeared in the same lineup just six times — all within the first seven games of the season. And that doesn’t factor in starting catcher Francisco Alvarez who is out for the foreseeable future due to a torn meniscus, not to mention the several key pitchers (Clay Holmes, Kodai Senga) who are on the injured list as well. It’s a mess, to say the least.
Rookies Carson Benge and A.J. Ewing have added some much-needed youthful energy in those veterans’ absences in recent weeks, but this lineup is still notably undermanned and it’s not expected to be back at full strength anytime soon. With that in mind, it’s on stars like Soto and Bichette to step it up in a big way if the Mets want to have any chance of digging themselves out of this early hole. President of baseball operations David Stearns has consistently downplayed any concerns about manager Carlos Mendoza’s job security, but even factoring in the injuries, much about the Mets’ operation will be worthy of scrutiny if this ultra-expensive new-look roster fails to rally back into the playoff picture by the end of the season.
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Cleveland Guardians — 30-22 (first place in AL Central)
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Preseason odds: 9% to win AL Central, 16% to make postseason
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May 22 odds: 63% to win AL Central, 74% to make postseason
On the flip side of Detroit’s outsized struggles has been the Guardians’ impressive surge to a comfortable lead atop the AL Central. Their closest competition has actually been the upstart Chicago White Sox, who sit 3.5 games back and have played a much more compelling brand of baseball compared to the uninspiring efforts of not only the Tigers, but also the Royals, who have also underwhelmed relative to preseason expectations and have seen their playoff odds take a significant hit in turn (from 45% to 15%).
Meanwhile, the Guardians have once again looked like the class of this division, most notably featuring a lineup that is as deep and dangerous as any Cleveland offensive outfit in recent memory, thanks in large part to the arrivals of top prospects Chase DeLauter and Travis Bazzana. The rookies’ instant impact, plus big steps forward from holdovers Angel Martínez and Brayan Rocchio, the steady brilliance of face of the franchise José Ramírez, and a quality pitching staff (far less of a surprise), has made Cleveland one of the more impressive all-around clubs in an American League that hasn’t exactly covered itself in glory in the early going. Similar to Milwaukee in the National League, projection systems consistently underrate Cleveland’s competence on an annual basis, and this year is no different. That said, it’s notable how down FanGraphs was on Cleveland coming into the year, and credit to the Guardians for defying those forecasts so emphatically already, putting themselves in excellent position to claim what would be their seventh division crown in the past eleven seasons.
Tampa Bay Rays — 33-15 (first place in AL East)
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Preseason odds: 7% to win AL East, 30% to make postseason
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May 22 odds: 35% to win AL East, 92% to make postseason
Another small-market, low-payroll club that has completely demolished any and all preseason projections suggesting they could have a tough time keeping up the gauntlet that is the AL East, the Rays have been one of the stories of the season, amassing the best record in MLB through nearly two months of play. Their sweep of the Orioles earlier this week was already their sixth sweep of the season, while only three other clubs (Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers) have even registered four undefeated series this season, highlighting the consistency and dominance of Tampa Bay’s club.
Despite being tied for 27th in MLB in home runs with just 41 long balls in 48 games, the Rays rank eighth in runs per game (4.83) and seventh in OPS (.727), with an exciting offensive attack built on speed and contact with a trio of big boppers in Junior Caminero, Yandy Díaz, and Jonathan Aranda supplying the slugging when called upon. The pitching, though, remains the story, as has so often been the case for great Rays teams in the past. What’s different this year is the rotation has led the way rather than a supercharged bullpen, as Tampa Bay’s starting pitchers led by Drew Rasmussen, Shane McClanahan, and savvy free-agent addition Nick Martinez have combined for a 3.00 ERA, the best mark in MLB.
Remarkably, the Rays have built the second-largest division lead in MLB behind only Atlanta’s massive 9.5 game lead atop the NL East — 4.5 games over the Yankees. Tampa Bay will have a golden opportunity to extend that lead even further with a three-game series in the Bronx this week.
Atlanta Braves — 35-16 (first place in NL East)
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Preseason odds: 36% to win NL East, 79% to make postseason
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May 22 odds: 87% to win NL East, 98% to make postseason
Speaking of those Braves, no team has seized on its division rivals’ underperformance better than Atlanta, who has played like one of the best teams in baseball from Opening Day onward. The Braves have lost only one of their 16 series — dropping two out of the three at Seattle earlier this month — and have been stacking up wins with aplomb, even with several key pitchers missing time due to injury and without Ronald Acuña Jr. really contributing anything close to his usual star-level production. Instead it’s been Matt Olson and second-year catcher Drake Baldwin leading the charge on offense, with both players making compelling cases to be included in the non-Shohei Ohtani NL MVP discussion, at least until Baldwin landed on the injured list recently with an oblique strain.
Catching is now a major question mark for Atlanta with Sean Murphy also on the injured list, but the Braves have so much else going right, particularly on the mound with the likes of Chris Sale, a breakout Bryce Elder and a terrific bullpen. They also have such a big lead atop the division thanks to the awful Aprils for the Mets and Phillies that the Braves shouldn’t have to sweat too much the rest of the way, and the playoff odds reflect as much.
There’s still work to be done, but the Braves have already earned themselves about as comfortable of an early-season cushion as you’ll see. After a rare stepback for the perennially contending franchise last season, it’s no surprise to see Atlanta back on track and in the NL pennant conversation.
Seattle Mariners – 24-27 (third place in AL West)
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Preseason odds: 60% to win AL West, 81% to make postseason
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May 22 odds: 46% to win AL West, 69% to make postseason
By most measures, Seattle has been one of the most disappointing teams in baseball, having entered the season with enormous expectations following its deep postseason run and with a roster as loaded as any in the American League. But because the rest of Seattle’s division has failed to capture any semblance of the momentum in the meantime, the Mariners remain in decent shape to repeat as division champs — something they have never done in franchise history.
That’s not to overlook how frustrating Seattle’s performance has been to this point, though it is worth noting that like so many underperforming clubs league-wide — including their ALCS opponent last October in Toronto — injuries have played a major role. Catcher Cal Raleigh is on the injured list for the first time in his career, key offseason addition Brendan Donovan has appeared in only 25 games and the bullpen missed key arms Matt Brash and Gabe Speier for extended stretches. Granted, it’s not that Raleigh is now absent from the lineup, but also how poorly he played before his injury, as last year’s MVP runner-up was hitting .161/.243/.317 before he went down, the most glaring lackluster showing in an offense that has been stuck in the mud for much of the year.
Most of the ingredients are still intact for another memorable season in the Pacific Northwest for a fan base that is desperate to see its favorite team in the World Series for the first time, but the Mariners will need to start finding consistency of their own rather than relying on the underwhelming showings of their AL West rivals as their only source of comfort.