MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN – OCTOBER 14: Freddy Peralta #51 of the Milwaukee Brewers pitches during the first inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers in game two of the National League Championship Series at American Family Field on October 14, 2025 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)
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Friday nights are always big in MLB, and with a full slate on tap, there are some intriguing YRFI (Yes Runs First Inning) and NRFI (No Runs First Inning) bets to consider.
With that in mind, let’s dive into three such potentially profitable scenarios for tonight’s games:
Miami Marlins at New York Mets, 7:10 p.m. ET
- Bet: NRFI (-142 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Both the Marlins and Mets have put together an underwhelming first two months of the season, and consequently, the two squads are bringing up the rear in the NL East.
While Miami has played to a 26-31 mark that includes an ugly 8-16 road record, New York has been even worse – the Mets are 23-33 entering Friday, a full 14.5 games behind first-place Atlanta and tied with the Padres for the second-fewest runs (214) in the NL.
New York’s prospects aren’t exactly bright Friday considering the opposing starter. Max Meyer is in the early stages of a career-best season, having posted a 5-0 record, 2.52 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 and 0.6 HR/9 across his first 11 starts, per RotoWire.
Meyer has been at his best in his last six trips to the mound, a span where he’s generated a 4-0 record, 1.51 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 0.5 HR/9 over 35.2 innings. Meyer also just blanked these same Mets over seven innings of one-run ball in South Florida in his most recent start.
Additionally, per Baseball Reference, he’s held opponents to a .175 average in the first inning as well, and the Mets have failed to score a first-inning run in 73.2% of their games, per Team Rankings.
Freddy Peralta will oppose Meyer, and the talented right-hander checks in with a 3-4 record that doesn’t necessarily reflect the overall caliber of his performance. Peralta sports a 3.52 ERA overall, as well as a 10.1 K/9 at home.
Peralta’s peripheral metrics also support the notion his lackluster won-loss record is partly the result of poor offensive support. The veteran has a .224 xBA and .298 xwOBA, and he’s also surrendering the second-lowest barrel rate of his career (5.3%), per Baseball Savant.
Peralta has also been lights out in the first inning, pitching to a .154 BAA, .481 OPS and 1.64 ERA in those 11 frames. He’s limited current Marlins bats to a middling .238 average over 73 career encounters, a sample where he’s also rung up 25 Ks. Then, Miami has the fourth-lowest wOBA (.289) and a -8.2 wRAA against righties on the road in the last month.
Given the quality of the two pitchers and the numbers cited, an NRFI bet is certainly in play.
Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers, 8:05 p.m. ET
- Bet: NRFI (-120 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Royals and the Rangers, much like the just-discussed Marlins and Mets, are well below .500 as the third month of the season begins.
Kansas City checks in at 22-34 and sporting a three-game losing streak, while also having scored the second-fewest runs (211) in the AL. Meanwhile, Texas is an uninspiring 25-31 and has averaged an AL-low 3.1 runs per home game, although Skip Schumaker’s squad is just 2.5 games back of first-place Seattle.
The starting pitching matchup of Stephen Kolek and MacKenzie Gore portends another potential low-scoring game between two teams that often scuffle to push runs across.
Both starters have put together a solid first two months of the season, and Kolek notably checks in with back-to-back shutouts, including a complete-game blanking of the Mariners in his most recent time on the mound.
Kolek is holding both handedness of hitter to sub-.200 averages, and he’s facing a Rangers squad that’s sporting a .214 average, .281 wOBA and -19.5 wRAA against right-handed pitching at home, per Fangraphs.
The Rangers have also failed to score a first-inning run in 83.3% of their home games, and Kolek has yet to allow a run in the first inning while holding the opposition to an .071 average.
Gore has also been effective more often than not despite his 3-4 record and 4.42 ERA. The left-hander has a so-so 1.24 WHIP, but the majority of his troubles have come in a pair of road starts where he’s been touched up for five runs apiece by the high-powered offenses of the Yankees and Mariners.
A look under the hood at Gore’s statistical hood further supports the notion of a strong start to his season. The veteran southpaw’s 3.82 xERA and .225 xBA indicate he’s been largely effective, and he’s been at his best at home with a 2.63 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 11.3 K/9 over 24 frames. Gore has also done better at limiting the long ball of late, conceding just one home run over his last 15 innings across his last three starts.
Gore has limited current Royals bats to a collective .214 average and .241 OBP across 29 career plate appearances, and he’s held the opposition to a .154 average in the first inning this season. Kansas City has also failed to score a first-inning run in 76.8% of its home games, teeing up an NRFI wager.
New York Yankees at Athletics, 9:40 p.m. ET
- Bet: YRFI (-138 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
The combination of two inconsistent pitchers, a pair of potent offenses and a hitter-friendly park are the ideal ingredients for a successful YRFI bet, and we have such a scenario on Friday’s series opener at Sutter Health Park.
Carlos Rodon and former Yankee Luis Severino take the hill for the visitors and hosts, respectively, and both veteran hurlers check in with records below .500. Rodon has an 0-2 mark through his first three starts, although he certainly pitched well enough to win his last time out when he allowed just one earned run over five innings to the Blue Jays.
The Athletics come into Friday’s matchup on a tear against lefties at home in recent weeks, having posted a .286 average, .793 OPS, .356 wOBA and 5.6 wRAA in that split over the last month. Rodon has conceded a .724 OPS in the first inning during his long career, and he’s particularly had trouble with a player he’s going to face in the opening frame.
Shea Langeliers, who’s sporting a .298 average and .912 OPS coming into Friday, has tagged Rodon for a .500 average with a double and only one strikeout in nine career plate appearances during his career. The slugger is also boasting a .385 average, .967 OPS and .431 wOBA against left-handed pitching at home, cementing his status as a potential early-game trouble spot for Rodon.
Meanwhile, Severino is coming off an impressive 10-strikeout effort against the Angels in a no-decision, but he’s still sitting on an ugly 2-5 record and 1.44 WHIP across 11 starts. The veteran right-hander also has a 2.2 HR/9, 4.1 BB/9 and 5.55 ERA in 24.1 home innings, less-than-ideal numbers with the Bronx Bombers in town.
Current New York hitters have teed off on Severino for a collective .278 average and .893 OPS, along with nine extra-base hits (out of 22 total) over 91 career plate appearances. What’s more, two of his biggest tormentors, Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger, will very likely be due up in the opening frame and are a combined 8-for-20 with two doubles and a home run in their careers against Severino.
Finally, Severino has had an exceedingly difficult time in the first inning, surrendering a .326 average and .998 OPS while pitching to a 7.36 ERA. Meanwhile, YRFI bets have an AL-high 33.3% hit rate in Yankees away games, and the A’s are allowing an AL-high 0.72 first-inning runs per home game.
This article was originally published on Forbes.com