CHICAGO — The Chicago Blackhawks are guaranteed a top-four pick for the fourth straight season when the NHL draft lottery takes place Tuesday evening.
The Hawks have the second-best odds at 13.5% to get the No. 1 pick for the third time in franchise history. They struck gold with the other two: Patrick Kane in 2007 and Connor Bedard in 2023.
Only the Vancouver Canucks at 25.5% have a better overall chance at the top pick. The New York Rangers (11.5%) and Calgary Flames (9.5%) have the third- and fourth-best odds.
This year’s draft class has plenty of talent, especially on the blue line, but two clear front-runners to go No. 1 have emerged: forwards Gavin McKenna of Penn State and Ivar Stenberg of Sweden.
So which one should the Hawks pick if their number comes up? Let’s compare.
The case for Gavin McKenna
McKenna spent a good chunk of his freshman season at Penn State as the clear No. 1 pick in this year’s draft. “Tank for McKenna” was the motto for fans of any bottom team in the NHL — and for good reason. He totaled 226 points (75 goals, 151 assists) over his last two seasons with the Medicine Hat Tigers of the WHL, and his skill set quickly translated to the college game.
The Whitehorse, Yukon, native had 51 points (15 goals, 36 assists) in 34 regular-season games with the Nittany Lions. That included an eight-point game (one goal, seven assists) on Feb. 20 against Ohio State and a four-game stretch between Feb. 13-27 in which he took a combined 31 shots on goal.
McKenna, 18, is seen as a generational offensive talent for his ice vision, puck handling and most of all his playmaking. If you had to pick a weakness, his play without the puck could make him a liability on the defensive end when it comes to things such as forechecking.
He also made headlines during the season that weren’t for the desired reasons. He was charged with felony aggravated assault, plus three lesser charges, after an altercation several hours after Penn State’s loss to Michigan State in an outdoor game at Beaver Stadium. The felony charge, which carried a potential penalty of up to 20 years in prison, was dropped days later, though he still faces charges for misdemeanor simple assault, harassment and disorderly conduct.
That hasn’t tanked the winger’s draft stock much — if at all — but it’s also true he’s no longer the unanimous No. 1 pick that he was back in October.
The case for Ivar Stenberg
Stenberg’s name is thrown in that pool now after a successful season in Sweden.
The 18-year-old from Stenungsund is the brother of St. Louis Blues center Otto Stenberg, a first-round pick (No. 25) in 2023. Ivar Stenberg finished the 2025-26 Swedish Hockey League season with 33 points (11 goals, 22 assists) in 43 games for Frölunda HC. While he didn’t do much in the regular season in 2024-25, he heightened his game in the playoffs with six points (three goals and assists) in 12 games.
He was a part of his country’s gold-medal run in the IIHF World Junior Championship in December and January, totaling 10 points (four goals, six assists) in seven games. Before hearing his name in the NHL draft, he’ll play for Sweden again in the IIHF World Championship this month in Switzerland.
Stenberg’s two-way game makes him a threat on both ends of the ice. His active stickwork opened eyes this year, especially at the world juniors, while his hockey IQ and play creation are what many teams in play for the top pick desperately need. Consistency is a worry if you had to nitpick, but he’s producing most of the time on one side or the other, so that shouldn’t deter a team from selecting him No. 1.
Where would they play in Chicago?
Long story short: The Hawks really couldn’t go wrong with either one.
While adding to their center depth with Caleb Malhotra wouldn’t be a terrible idea, that would be a reach with the first selection. If the Hawks land the No. 1 pick, they should select McKenna or Stenberg with the intention of pairing either with Bedard on the top line.
Hawks coach Jeff Blashill tried Ryan Greene and André Burakovsky as Bedard’s top wings for a large portion of this past season, to little avail. Burakovsky was an offensive shackle on the right side, while Greene showed potential in many aspects outside of consistent finishing.
Bedard had chemistry with Anton Frondell upon his arrival, but Blashill’s idea of keeping those two and Frank Nazar at center makes sense so that one of them is on the ice most of the time. Oliver Moore or veteran Ryan Donato could be the fourth-line center, making for a quality depth chart in the middle.
Tyler Bertuzzi elevated everyone’s game in 2025-26 on whichever line he was on, and he scored a career-high 32 goals. He’d be a good pick to skate alongside Bedard to start.
With the No. 1 pick, the Hawks select …
Now, about the other wing.
Playing at the United Center would be a dream come true for McKenna, who has said that the Hawks were his favorite team growing up and that he models his game after Kane.
That’s a good role model to have, especially in Chicago. McKenna also was seen wearing a White Sox hat not long ago.
If drafted by the Hawks, he would have a familiar face in the locker room. He and Bedard are cousins by marriage — “like eighth,” McKenna said — and have texted each other often. In a news conference before his college debut, McKenna called Bedard “a guy I can lean on.”
McKenna’s elite playmaking will take some time to adjust to the NHL, but in the meantime he and Bertuzzi, Frondell or another finishing wing could collect pucks from Bedard, already one of the league’s best playmakers. In a best-case scenario, Bedard and McKenna would play keep-away from the defense and set each other up for a plethora of shots. It’s something the Hawks need, given that they were last in the NHL in shots per game (24.7).
One thing McKenna hasn’t checked off his list is skating against older players; he’ll get his first taste this month in the world championships. It’s something the young Hawks still are learning — and that might give Stenberg an edge.
The Hawks should have more chemistry now that most of them have a full NHL season under their belts, and plugging Stenberg into that would fit like a puzzle piece. His fellow Swede Frondell didn’t miss a beat coming out the SHL this season.
When Frondell was called up to the Hawks on March 24, he played like he’d been in the NHL for a while. It wasn’t perfect — there were defensive mistakes here and there — but he had nine points (three goals, six assists) in 12 games and averaged 17 minutes, 42 seconds of ice time.
Frondell and Stenberg won gold with Sweden at the world juniors earlier this year and will play together again in the worlds. Bedard with two seasoned wings in Stenberg and Frondell could spell danger for opposing defensemen.
The Hawks want to be a scrappy, tough, annoying team to play against. That includes being more aggressive with their sticks and bodies, along with sticking up for their teammates. Bedard said the Hawks weren’t “going to take any (expletive)” this season, but they proceeded to receive their fair share of it. Stenberg could be a young example of fierce, intentful play.
Of course, McKenna could gain those off-puck skills fairly quickly. But it would help the Hawks to have a new player who already excels there, and they need that tough identity to go with the offensive production.
So if the Hawks win the lottery, they should select Stenberg. But if they do get the No. 1 pick, fans should be excited either way that they would be drafting a stud.
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