Given the developments to date and the possibility, if not inevitability, of more developments to come, it remains possible that Mike Vrabel won’t remain the head coach of the Patriots.
The question has become a wager on both of the leading prediction markets.
At Kalshi, the question of who the Patriots coach will be as of Week 1 2026 has Vrabel at 77 percent. That’s a surprisingly low percentage, given that, a month ago, it was a given that Vrabel would be the coach in New England for years to come. Polymarket poses the question as whether Vrabel will be out by December 31, 2026. “Yes” is currently at 23 percent.
For now, the situation seems to have stabilized. That could change with any further revelation.
The wild card is whether and when the other person in this situation — Dianna Russini — will tell her side of the story. No one knows what, if anything, she’ll say. No one will know where she’ll say it. Surely, multiple outlets are already trying to get the interview. Maybe she’ll write a book. Maybe there will be a documentary.
However it happens, that’s the biggest unknown piece in all of this. Depending on what she says (if she says anything), it could reshuffle the deck in a way that complicates Vrabel’s situation to the point at which it’s not possible to continue.
For now, 23 percent of the people who are betting on Kalshi and Polymarket believe that the story will end with Vrabel not remaining. That’s still a low number, but it’s dramatically higher on May 1 than anyone would have expected it to be on April 1.