The news came down midday Monday, and it was impossible to shake. Tarik Skubal, headed to the injured list. Loose bodies in the pitching elbow. Likely a 2-3 month absence. As a fantasy baseball player and a Michigan native, this is how you ruin my day in 10 seconds.
The cooling off period has come and gone. Now it’s time to reflect, reassess, regroup and move forward.
We often talk about how starting pitchers are the running backs of fantasy baseball. When you land on the right ones — or when your stars stay healthy — life is wonderful. And when the injury gods frown at you, it can be a long season.
Healthy Christian McCaffrey has been a football cheat code in the right seasons. And he’s been a depressing pick in the wrong seasons, like in 2024, when he was hurt and mysteriously scratched Week 1, before the season even started. And fantasy baseball managers can certainly relate.
Before Monday, the injured pitcher discussion was dominated by fallen closers. Edwin Díaz, Jhoan Duran, Raisel Iglesias, Josh Hader, Pete Fairbanks and Carlos Estévez are currently hurt. It’s exhausting to see that list, consider just how much wreckage we’ve seen at fantasy baseball’s most volatile position.
But the starting pitcher position has also seen plenty of attrition. Skubal joins Garrett Crochet and Hunter Brown on the injured list — the top-three vote-getters in last year’s AL Cy Young voting. We’re still waiting for Hunter Greene, Gerrit Cole, Nick Lodolo and Blake Snell to pitch this year. Sonny Gray, Carlos Rodón and Nick Pivetta are currently hurt. If Milwaukee’s rising ace Jacob Misiorowski (hamstring) misses any time, I’m going to be in rough shape.
We also should mention there are plenty of name pitchers currently healthy — as far as we know — but not pitching like we expect. Logan Webb, Logan Gilbert and Bryan Woo all have ERAs over 4.00. Cole Ragans and Jesús Luzardo are over 5.00. Luis Castillo can’t get anyone out. Eury Pérez hasn’t put it together yet. That’s just the tip of the iceberg.
The starting pitcher leaderboard through one month is a mix of unusual names, as it often is. Cam Schlittler has been dominant, teammate Max Fried not far behind. Chris Sale and Jacob deGrom can still do it. José Soriano has been a revelation for the Angels, though his last start was messy. Davis Martin is a fun story for the competitive White Sox. Parker Messick is a breakout star in Cleveland. Paul Skenes was rocked on opening day — and he’s been terrific since.
Shohei Ohtani (0.60 ERA, 0.87 WHIP) deserves his own paragraph. There are no comps for that guy.
What can fantasy baseball players do with all this pitching madness? Again, we take our cue from fantasy football. Take as many bites of the apple as possible.
Your fantasy football bench will always have a few running backs who are “one break away” from popping. Your baseball bench should similarly have speculation plays at pitcher. The shape of the breakouts are different; in football it often comes down to opportunity, while in baseball it’s more the elusive nature of growth and improvement. Pitchers are constantly changing things — their mechanics, their pitch mix, their windup, their coach, their primary catcher, how they attack the platoon disadvantage. Velocity rises and dips, ebbs and flows. Careers can take off at any moment. Often the improvement won’t be detectable until after it’s happened, but we need to pay close attention anyway.
The key with winning any intellectually-challenging game is to make good decisions. Chess, poker, fantasy sports, it’s all the same. With pitchers, we consider pedigree and we consider environment and we consider ballparks and age patterns and all that stuff. And then we hope to get a break from variance. Good decisions, everyone.
Some measures and metrics are timeless, no matter how sophisticated we get. Some version of K/BB ratio is the best place to start (if you prefer K-BB%, that’s fine too). We’d prefer pitchers in the first half of their career, less mileage, less strain (while trying to stay open to a Sale or a deGrom if they make sense). Ballparks in Seattle or Texas or Tampa Bay can hide some of your mistakes; if you pitch in Colorado or Boston or Philadelphia, your margins are slimmer.
For every Skubal share you’re sweating right now, hopefully you have a Kyle Harrison share to offset it (post-hype sleeper, good age pocket, works for a defensively-sound team). If Castillo or Ragans is hurting you, maybe a Will Warren or a Nick Martinez is coming through for you. Payton Tolle has been excellent in his two Boston starts. Maybe this Sean Burke start is real. Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo have become Ibáñez All-Stars in Kansas City, the reliable value veteran.
Head up, gamers. There’s a bunch of season left. Keep making good decisions. For everything that breaks, the next breakout is never far away.