The Kentucky Derby is quickly approaching on Saturday in Louisville, Kentucky. The draw has been revealed and the early odds set. Looking for some start-of-the-week advice on how the race could turn out?
We turned to our old friend, Claude.
We asked AI to simulate the race using the present odds, draw and potential track conditions. We also asked it to factor in some human predictions.
Here’s how the race turned out. Claude was kind enough to explain why each horse finished where it did.
Kentucky Derby 2026 simulation
1. Further Ado (6-1)
“Further Ado delivered a textbook come-from-behind performance. Jockey John Velazquez slotted him in eighth through the opening half-mile as early speed horses set an honest pace. Turning for home, Further Ado unleashed his powerful closing kick. He powered past Commandment at the 16th pole and won going away.”
2. The Puma (10-1)
“Jockey Javier Castellano settled The Puma in a perfect tracking position (fourth–fifth) through the first six furlongs. The horse swung five-wide at the top of the stretch — the same wide move that works in big fields — and ran down Commandment to grab second.”
3. Commandment (6-1)
“Commandment ran a gutsy race and showed his class by hitting the board, but the late-race doubters were partially vindicated. Jockey Luis Saez stalked the pace in third through the backstretch. At the quarter pole, Commandment looked like the winner — but the closing pair ran him down in the final 16th.”
4. Chief Wallabee (8-1)
“Bill Mott’s colt ran an honest race from post 12, sitting in the middle of the pack. He lacked the late punch to get up for a board finish, but his consistency showed — a horse that never embarrasses. Jockey Junior Alvarado (who won in 2025 on Sovereignty) couldn’t replicate the magic this year.”
5. Renegade (4-1)
“The favorite’s Derby curse struck again — no winner from Post 1 since 1986. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. settled Renegade in close along the rail, saving ground, but when he needed room to accelerate at the top of the stretch, he was boxed in for crucial seconds. By the time daylight appeared, the leaders had opened a gap he couldn’t close.”
6. Emerging Market (15-1)
“The Louisiana Derby winner had one of the highest wet-track ratings in the field, which gave him a boost on the sealed surface. Flavien Prat angled him wide from post 15 and got a clean run, but the closing burst simply wasn’t enough against the top closers. A respectable effort for a 15-1 shot.”
7. So Happy (15-1)
“Mike Smith, a Derby legend, threaded So Happy through traffic skillfully. The horse showed his front-running transformation (he now wears blinkers) by pressing the pace early and hanging tough into the stretch. Faded slightly under pressure from the deep closers.”
8. Fulleffort (20-1)
“He showed his closing style but lacked the necessary gear on the deeper dirt. Was negatively impacted by a wide trip throughout. Still, a respectable effort for a horse many doubted would get here.”
9. Incredibolt (20-1)
“Riley Mott’s Virginia Derby winner ran credibly in the middle of the pack through the backstretch. Jockey Jaime Torres kept him out of trouble from post 11, but the son of Pin Oak Stud lacked the extra gear needed to sustain his run deep into the Churchill Downs stretch.”
10. Danon Bourbon (20-1)
“The Japanese contender ran a respectable race but could never get into a rhythm on a surface that wasn’t ideal. Ran bravely through the stretch but was outclassed in the final quarter-mile. Churchill Downs dirt proved a different challenge.”
11. Silent Tactic (20-1)
“Renegade’s Arkansas Derby stablemate was simply overmatched in a deeper field. Jockey Cristian Torres in his first Derby couldn’t find the right pace scenario from post 13. The horse was used up in traffic in the first turn scramble.”
12. Potente (20-1)
“Half-brother to Renegade and Commandment (all three sharing a sire line) was trying to give Bob Baffert a record seventh Derby victory. As a speed horse from post 14, he set pace through the first turn but was caught and passed as the real closers fired.”
13. Pavlovian (30-1)
“One of multiple longshots that tried to make a move from deep but couldn’t sustain it over Churchill Downs’ 1¼ miles. Pavlovian showed flashes of quality without the class to compete in this company.”
14. Golden Tempo (30-1)
“Cherie DeVaux’s mid-pack runner had a good wet-track but couldn’t translate that pedigree edge into a strong finish. Jose Ortiz moved him into position turning for home but found horses all around him.”
15. Litmus Test (30-1)
“Bob Baffert’s second starter (alongside Potente) ran as a stalker from post 4 but could never find the run-of-the-race position needed in a 20-horse field.”
16. Albus (30-1)
“Riley Mott’s second entry had a modest career earnings total heading in, and the Derby’s class level exposed him. Jockey Manny Franco kept him out of trouble early but the horse had nothing left by the far turn.”
17. Right to Party (30-1)
“The only American-based starter with actual wet-track experience — which should have helped on the sealed surface — but Right to Party’s Wood Memorial runner-up form wasn’t up to Grade 1 Derby standard. The coveted No. 5 post position gave Christopher Elliott a clean trip, but the horse’s class ceiling was evident once the closers fired.”
18. Wonder Dean (30-1)
“Japan’s second representative in this Derby. The Churchill Downs dirt and the extreme pace scenario of a 20-horse American field proved too much. Never a factor after the first quarter-mile.”
19. Six Speed (50-1)
“The UAE Derby runner-up came in as a front-runner from post 17 — an awkward spot for a speed horse who needs to get to the lead. In a 20-horse field with multiple speed horses, Six Speed got caught up in a hot pace battle through the first half-mile. He had nothing left for the stretch.”
20. Intrepido (50-1)
“One of the longest shots in the race ran as such. Intrepido was a significant step below the other 19 horses in this field by every meaningful metric — speed figures, prep race quality, and trainer/jockey Derby experience. Hector Barrios kept him clear of trouble but the horse was simply outclassed from start to finish.”
