JJ Bleday is having a career year at the plate.
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Sadly, with two incorrect MLB best home run bets on May 18, the dry spell extended to seven straight duds. It dropped the season’s record for home run props to 8-34, with two no-bets for players who didn’t play on those respective dates.
The slide has nearly dried up the season’s profits. Anyone who has bet $100 on all the MLB best home bets this year at the listed odds is up only $25. After two months of grinding home run props, sitting at nearly even money is unsatisfying, but it’s better than being in the red.
Home run props are challenging to pick successfully, hence their long odds. Cold streaks are part of the equation for home run bets. Still, calculated selections and line shopping – searching sportsbooks for the best available odds – can result in turning a profit. The following two home run props offer bettors the best combination of odds of success and betting odds.
MLB Best Home Run Bets
JJ Bleday (Cincinnati Reds – OF)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+400) at theScoreBet
has allowed eight homers in eight starts. He’s permitted a homer in his previous two starts, allowing three in total during those games.
Severino has allowed home runs in three of four starts at home, allowing two in each of those starts. Severino has allowed 16 home runs to 481 batters at home at 1.35 HR/9 at home since last season.
Unsurprisingly, Severino has struggled to keep the ball in the yard at home. Sutter Health Park has the third-highest park factor for homers (117) since 2025.
Ben Rice is equipped to take advantage of the matchup and homer-friendly park factors at Sutter Health Park. Rice’s 16 home runs are the sixth-most in MLB in 2026. He’s hit 11 of his 16 homers in 151 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.
Rice also has elite batted-ball data. Among qualified hitters this season, Rice is tied for 10th in barrels per plate appearance rate (11.2%), 12th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (17.6%), 13th in hard-hit rate (52.9%), tied for 27th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (96.3 mph) and tied for 18th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (41.2%).
Rice can add to his home run ledger tonight. His +328 odds are a bit chalky, but they’re still too good to pass up.
This article was originally published on Forbes.com