MLB free-agent rankings: In the 2027 class, it’s Tarik Skubal and everybody else

Posted on by GoalVerseNews

The calendar has turned to May, and still, we hardly know a darn thing about the 2026 MLB season. Everybody in the NL Central is good. The Phillies and Mets are collecting losses like stamps. The Athletics are leading the AL West, and they don’t even have a first name! What a world!

But as the weather warms, it’s never too early to think about cold weather baseball activities — namely, the 2027 free-agent class.

This will be the first in a series of monthly check-ins. Much will change between now and the offseason. Injuries, underperformance and unexpected breakouts are yet to come. At this point, we don’t know what we don’t know. As such, this list will change a great deal over the coming months.

Before we begin, a few big-picture notes about this class:

In every single offseason since 2015, at least one hitter received a contract with a total value of $100 million or more. That run might very well be snapped this winter. A strong walk year from Jazz Chisholm Jr. or Seiya Suzuki could lead to a nine-figure deal, but it’s far from a given. Why the shallow group? Extensions for Cal Raleigh and Nico Hoerner kept those shoo-in $100 million talents off the open market. And the 2020 rookie class was particularly light, for whatever reason.

Whatever you’re shopping for on the mound, this market has it: Game 1 playoff starters, mid-rotation innings-eaters, lefties, righties, velocity, control, reliability, upside. It’s all here.

It’s a near certainty that a work stoppage of some sort — probably the owners locking out the players — will happen when the current CBA expires on Dec. 1. When that transpired in the winter of 2021-22, there was a flurry of free-agent activity right before the CBA deadline. Things might happen that way again, they might not, but know that zero transactional activity is allowed during a work stoppage. Get ready to get bored.

With all that out of the way, let’s get to the rankings.

Notes: Whenever you see a number, a slash and another number, that’s a reference to contract years and total earnings. For instance, the shorthand for Bryce Harper’s 11-year, $330 million deal would be “11/330.” Ages listed below are for the 2027 season.

It’s difficult to envision Skubal getting knocked from the top spot. He’s the best pitcher in the world, fresh off two consecutive Cy Youngs and gunning for a third. Barring injury, he will break the record for the largest contract ever handed to a pitcher: Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 12/325. That Skubal is represented by mega-agent Scott Boras will only add to the drama.

Skubal did have a weird moment in his most recent outing, when he shook his arm out and massaged his elbow after throwing a pitch. His next offering was a 97-mph fastball dotted on the edge. So while that moment didn’t become anything bigger, it was a reminder that every hurler in the sport is always one pitch away from catastrophe. If Skubal dodges disaster, the payday will be nuts.

Think of Peralta as the best of the rest. Dealt from the Brewers to the Mets over the winter, the ebullient Dominican has been just OK through his first seven starts. But Peralta’s numbers should inch back to his career norms as the season goes along. This guy finished fifth in the NL Cy Young last year and has a career K/9 north of 11. He might not be an ace, depending on your definition, but Peralta is undoubtedly a very good No. 1 starter and will get paid as such.

As mentioned, these are the only two position players with a fighting shot at a nine-figure deal. Despite being notably older, Suzuki ranks over Chisholm for his offensive consistency. The Japanese outfielder has tallied at least 580 plate appearances with an adjusted OPS 30% above league average in each of the past three seasons. Suzuki hits the ball hard, in the air, very often. That’s a crucial, repeatable skill. He’s also a better athlete and outfielder than you might expect — Team Japan had him playing center in the WBC — even if those skills will decline over time.

Chisholm, though, could leapfrog Suzuki with a monster season. The gregarious Bahamian clanked 30 homers and swiped 30 bags last season but has gotten off to a slow start in 2026. He’s walking less, swinging slower and barrelling the ball less often. Still, Chisholm is talented enough to catch fire at any time. His defense at the keystone is stellar, as is his baserunning. Those attributes give him a decently high floor. If the offense bounces back, watch out.

Age is but a number. Gausman was initially much lower on this list, but he kept climbing higher with each edit. His performance, in the end, was simply too good to ignore. The Jays’ righty has thrown at least 174 innings in each of the past five seasons and is on pace to do so again. He’s no longer quite as dominant as he was from 2021 to ‘23, but this guy was the ace of a Jays team that was inches from winning it all last fall. The underlying metrics still love him, and his heater-splitter combo remains one of the game’s best. He won’t earn a lengthy pact because of his age, but some team (maybe the Jays) will pay big money over the short term to secure his services.

This is a weird one. Three left fielders, all of them nearly the same age, with very similar offensive production over the past three seasons. Happ gets the edge in the early going because he has the longest track record, and he’s merely average defensively, whereas Arozarena and Ward are active detriments in the outfield.

But if steals are your thing, Arozarena is your guy. He has 112 bags since 2022 (Happ has 43, Ward 20). And, of course, the Cuban-born Mexican goofball always brings a flair for the dramatic. Ward is off to a scorching start in 2026, with a batting average over .300 and a league-leading 13 doubles. He also owns the single lowest chase rate in MLB.

It's Tarik Skubal and everybody else when it comes to the 2027 free-agent class.
It’s Tarik Skubal and everybody else when it comes to the 2027 free-agent class.
Taylor Wilhelm/Yahoo Sports

King has a $28 million player option for 2027, but we think he’ll end up reentering free agency if he stays healthy. Despite an injured-plagued 2025, he got a three-year, $75 million deal last offseason. He should be able to beat that if he makes 30 starts. So far, so good.

Rogers and Bubic can be grouped together as younger-than-typical southpaws with short track records. The O’s lefty was one of the best pitchers in baseball after the All-Star break last year. Bubic was an All-Star himself. That’s more or less where the résumés end. Both have been good, not great so far in ‘26. Depending on how this season plays out, you could envision this duo as high as Nos. 3 and 4 — or way down the rankings.

Imanaga is coming off a bizarre foray through free agency in which he and the Cubs played contractual ping-pong before reuniting on a qualifying offer. His fastball velocity so far this season is back up to where it was during his stellar 2024. If that holds, Imanaga should get a nice multiyear deal.

Arraez is good at defense now? The 30-year-old Venezuelan settled for a one-year deal with the Giants last winter, in part because he was intent on moving back to the keystone from first base. Some teams were spooked by that, but the Giants were willing to take on the experiment. That has paid off so far, with Arraez grading out phenomenally on most defensive metrics. Offensively, he’s up to his old tricks. If the defensive improvement sticks, Arraez is a markedly different player and should get a better look this time around.

Lowe is a bad defender but has a much higher offensive ceiling and sturdier track record than Arraez. He has already gone deep eight times in his first season with the Pirates. Only Marcus Semien has more home runs among second basemen over the past five seasons. That’s all the more impressive considering Lowe has missed a ton of games over the years due to injuries. Perhaps that ends up dampening his free-agent case.

Torres was one of a record four players to accept the qualifying offer this past winter. For whatever reason, his exit velocity and bat-speed numbers are down precipitously compared to 2025. That hasn’t impacted his output just yet, but it’s something to monitor as the season unfolds.

Easily the top catcher on the market, Jeffers has quietly been one of the best-hitting backstops in the game over the past few seasons. His framing and throwing numbers are very poor, which probably takes him out of the running for a team that prioritizes defense behind the dish. As he ages, Jeffers probably works best in a hybrid catcher/DH role in which he can spend a bit more time focusing on hitting. He rakes, though, and is off to a magnificent start.

Here we have two occasionally electric, extremely flawed center fielders. Varsho gets the edge based on his glove, an area in which Grisham has curiously declined. The Jays’ center fielder has also cut his strikeout rate by more than 10 percentage points, one of the biggest drops in the sport this year. How that impacts his power production remains to be seen, but the bar is lower for Varsho just because he’s capable of brilliance in the grass.

Grisham was another of the qualifying offer acceptors from last winter. He’s off to a slow start with the Yankees, though the underlying metrics think a rebound is inevitable. Grisham does a few very important things — walk, not chase, square up the ball, hit it hard — very well. That gives him a high floor … as a center fielder. A bounce-back in his defense would go a long way; it was telling that Grisham was wary of testing the open market this past offseason.

Lets call this “Starting Pitching Tier 3.” Mize was off to the best start of his career but just went on the injured list due to a lower-body issue. That’s less concerning than a shoulder or an elbow and shouldn’t influence his free agency too, too much. Gallen returned to Arizona on a one-year deal after dipping his toe in the free-agent waters last winter but looks pretty similar to the pitcher he was in 2025. He’s throwing more sliders and getting more chase as a result, but that’s pretty much it.

Ray, an All-Star last season, looks like a perfectly reliable mid-rotation type right now — somebody you’d start in Game 3 of a playoff series. Maybe he becomes more than that as he gets further away from elbow surgery. Holmes’ transition from the ‘pen to the rotation has gone better than most anybody thought possible. He has a $12 million option for next year, which he’ll probably decline if he continues pitching this well. The Mets have problems; Holmes is not one of them.

Relievers are volatile things. Helsley, Luke Weaver and Devin Williams spent last season pinballing up and down these rankings with the whims of the wind. This trio here, though, represents the clear upper crust of the free-agent relievers to be. There’s an argument that Bednar belongs higher, given his long track record and current dominance. Let’s give it some time and reassess later.

  1. Ramon Laureano, Padres OF, 32

  2. Isaac Paredes (opt-out), Astros IF, 28 

  3. Jeff McNeil (opt-out), Athletics 2B, 35

  4. George Springer, Blue Jays DH, 37

  5. Adrian Morejon, Padres RP, 28

  6. Michael Soroka, D-backs SP, 29

  7. Foster Griffin, Nationals SP, 31

  8. Brady Singer, Reds SP, 30

  9. Nick Martinez, Brewers SP, 37

  10. Alec Bohm, Phillies IF, 30

  11. J.P. Crawford, Mariners IF, 32

  12. Carson Kelly, Cubs C, 32

  13. Sonny Gray, Red Sox SP, 37

  14. Matthew Boyd, Cubs SP, 36

  15. Jeffrey Springs, Athletics SP, 34

  16. Chris Bassitt, Orioles SP, 38

  17. Ha-seong Kim, Braves SS, 31

  18. Edmundo Sosa, Phillies 3B, 31

  19. Mauricio Dubon, Braves SS, 32

  20. Jason Adam, Padres RP, 35

  21. Jose Alvarado, Phillies RP, 32

  22. Eugenio Suarez, Reds 3B, 35

  23. Adolis García, Phillies OF, 33

  24. Jameson Taillon, Cubs SP, 35

  25. Jake Bauers, Brewers 1B, 31

Related Posts

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *