With the 2026 MLB season only a month old, both the players and owners are already looking to the future. The league’s collective-bargaining agreement (CBA) expires at the end of the season, and both sides are expected to engage in multiple contentious rounds of negotiation ahead of next season.
In an effort to get ahead of that, the owners and MLBPA will reportedly start meeting in the coming weeks, per The Athletic. At the center of those talks is a salary cap, which the owners are eager to implement.
Baseball has a long history of labor wars, but this rendition could be the wildest yet. The owners, an extraordinarily wealthy group, are planning to push for a salary cap, which players, a number of them quite rich themselves, have long considered a non-starter.
The current CBA won’t expire until 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 1. While starting negotiations in May or June could result in a deal ahead of that date, it seems unlikely, per The Athletic. If a deal isn’t reached by that date and time, the owners will likely lock out the players.
That’s what happened in 2021, the last time the a new labor deal needed to be established in the sport. That lock out lasted until March of 2022. While spring training games were effected, the league was able to play a normal 162-game slate during the 2022 season.
That same timeline is expected this offseason, with the resolution most likely coming in spring. In order for the 2027 MLB season to go off without any missed games, both sides would likely need to agree to a new CBA in or around March.
The issue of a salary cap isn’t a new one in MLB labor negotiations. Owners have pushed for a salary cap in the past, with players vehemently opposed to the idea. While a salary cap didn’t appear to be the main focus of the 2021 negotiations, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ ability to outspend other teams has become a major story across the game in the years since the last CBA.
Despite a massive payroll, the Dodgers have been the premier destination for free agents. Last offseason, the team inked outfielder Kyle Tucker — the top player on the market — to a massive four-year, $240 million deal. The Dodgers also signed the top closer available, picking up Edwin Díaz for three years and $69 million.
The Dodgers — which have won back-to-back World Series championships — are off to a strong start in 2026, and sit at 20-11 entering Thursday. The team’s projected competitive-balance payroll sits at $416.8 million, per Cots Contracts. The New York Mets rank second on that list with a $379.1 million competitive-balance payroll.
One of the biggest factors driving the Dodgers’ ability to spend is the team’s reliance on deferred contracts. The team is “delaying payment on all but $2 million of Shohei Ohtani’s annual $70 million salary for the life of his 10-year contract,” per The Athletic. Putting an end to those types of deferrals could also be a focus in labor talks.
The fact that both sides are willing to sit down so early in the season is at least a sign that they recognize these negotiations will take time. Even then, it might not be enough to prevent a lockout, especially if the salary cap is the true sticking point in talks.