Big Boards: Consensus Top 75 • Nate Tice • Charles McDonald | Draft guide
Whoever drafts Jeremiyah Love is very unlikely to regret adding him.
You probably can’t say that about anyone else in this NFL Draft class, at least with as much confidence. The edge rushers at the top of the draft have questions. None of the receivers are Ja’Marr Chase level prospects. There are even questions about Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza and his upside.
There is no guarantee Love won’t be a bust. Every prospect has bust potential. But throughout the NFL Draft process, there haven’t been many criticisms of Love’s game. He’s a complete prospect. The only knock has been that he plays running back.
That’s the rub. The player who some analysts have ranked as the best overall player in the draft doesn’t play a premium position in the modern NFL. The argument that “running backs don’t matter” is misguided and also largely a straw man, but one look at the salaries for the top players at each position tells a story. The NFL doesn’t view a star running back the same as it does star players at some other key positions.
But when teams do take a running back in the top 10 lately, they rarely miss. And shouldn’t that be a selling point for a team that has a top-10 pick?
Many recent 1st round RBs have been hits
No position in the draft is bust-proof. Any position has a long line of failed prospects, who washed out for one reason or another.
However the recent hit rate at running back, especially in the top half of the first round, is quite good compared to other positions.
Jeanty and Hampton, the two running backs taken in the first round last season, had moments of excellence as rookies and their grades are incomplete. Hampton was held back by injuries and Jeanty was held back by being drafted by the Raiders. Both could emerge as top-15 running backs this season. While there are some clear busts on the list — Rashaad Penny was a miss and Kansas City taking Edwards-Helaire over Jonathan Taylor in 2020 was regrettable to say the least — all the other backs taken in the first round since 2016 were productive for at least a stretch.
And a great player at that spot can make a big difference. Kenneth Walker III just won Super Bowl MVP. Saquon Barkley was the best player on an Eagles team that won a Super Bowl two seasons ago, and the 49ers got to overtime of the Super Bowl three seasons ago with Christian McCaffrey leading the way. It’s hard to say the Cardinals or Titans would become instant contenders by drafting Love in the top four on Thursday night, but they’d be adding a multi-talented running back who would eat up yards in the running game and also by catching the ball.
Running backs might not be as valuable as quarterback or a top edge rusher, but they matter. And, relatively speaking, they’re pretty safe investments in the first round.
Where will Jeremiyah Love go?
Free agency usually tells the story of what teams think about running backs. Last month, Walker got $14.35 million per year to sign with the Chiefs, the highest mark among running backs this offseason. That was less than players like Jaylen Watson, Kwity Paye and Cordale Flott. Last season Walker had 1,215 yards and nine touchdowns from scrimmage. Colts receiver Alec Pierce had 1,003 yards and six touchdowns. Pierce got $28.5 million per year to stay with the Colts, almost double Walker’s annual salary.
That’s why there’s a debate on Love. Even if Love becomes one of the best running backs in the NFL, the league won’t view him on the same plane as a great pass rusher or No. 1 receiver in terms of salary. When teams in the top 10 discuss whether to take Love, they’ll be considering that. If a David Bailey or Rueben Bain Jr. become an All-Pro pass rusher, they will make two or three times what Love will, even if he becomes the best at his position in the NFL.
But teams have a good idea what they’ll get from Love. He’s got the speed to hit explosive runs, and he’s so good in the passing game that Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman recently said he thought Love could be an elite wide receiver. He will impact an offense from his first game, which is undeniably important to a young quarterback like Cam Ward or Jaxson Dart, whose teams have the fourth and fifth picks of the draft.
Where Love lands is one of the biggest storylines heading into the NFL Draft. Whoever takes him will very likely be pleased with the player. We’ll have to see if that team just has some second thoughts about passing on a potential star at another position.
