NFL Draft bust candidates: Ty Simpson, Rueben Bain among riskiest picks in 2026 originally appeared on The Sporting News.
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The NFL Draft is not an exact science, to say the least. Even the wisest front office minds know selecting players is closer to an educated guess than anything else.
The draft isn’t completely random, though. First-round picks have a much higher rate of success than fourth-round picks, and second-round picks have a much higher rate of success than sixth-round picks. A first-rounder flopping could cost a general manager his job, but a seventh-rounder never panning out is nothing out of the ordinary.
That doesn’t mean all highly-drafted players fulfill expectations. The 2026 NFL Draft will inevitably have its share of busts, and a few players have already showed warning signs before hearing their name called in Pittsburgh.
Here are seven NFL Draft prospects who could be bust candidates in 2026.
MORE: Sporting News’ complete 7-round mock draft
Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama
The rate of success for quarterbacks with only one year of starting experience at the college level isn’t particularly high. Simpson spent four years in Alabama’s system between Nick Saban and Kalen DeBoer, but he didn’t take over as the Crimson Tide’s starter until 2025. Will that lack of experience matter?
Simpson, in essence, has only a half-season of impressive football under his belt. He looked like an NFL quarterback over Alabama’s first eight games in 2025, throwing 20 touchdowns to only one interception and beating some talented defenses, but his accuracy suffered late in the season.
Nagging injuries and health issues, including gastritis, might have hampered Simpson, but his slight build at 6-foot-1 and 211 pounds raises questions about his durability at the next level. Simpson’s arm is fine and he generally keeps the ball out of harm’s way, but it doesn’t jump off the page compared to NFL starters.
If Simpson is over-drafted, it will be the result of a lack of elite-level quarterback prospects in this draft. The hit rate for first-round quarterbacks outside the No. 1 pick is much shakier than other positions because teams are desperate to find a franchise quarterback, and Simpson could be the latest to fall short of those expectations.
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Rueben Bain, EDGE, Miami
Bain was an absolute monster at times on Miami’s defense in 2025, finishing the year with 15.5 tackles for loss and constantly disrupting opposing quarterbacks. By the eye test, he looked like a potential NFL star — and he could be. If he is, he will be breaking precedent related to arm length.
Bain’s arms measured in at 30 7/8 inches at the NFL Combine in February, which is one of the shortest measurements of any edge rusher in recent history. Since 2010, there is no comparison for a first-round edge rusher whose arms are as short as Bain’s. Carl Lawson and Trey Hendrickson are examples of pass-rushers who found NFL success with arms below 33 inches, but Lawson (31 1/2) and Hendrickson (32) still came in ahead of Bain and weren’t close to being first-round picks.
If Bain has found a way to be so successful to this point, there is little doubt he is capable of having a long NFL career. As he faces bigger bodies, however, it’s worth wondering whether he will live up to the billing that comes with being a likely top-10 pick.
MORE:Why Rueben Bain’s arm measurements could be troubling
Outside of the arm concerns, off-field concerns have also surfaced for Bain. A recent report revealed Bain was charged with careless driving after a 2024 crash that killed a passenger in his car, though the charge was later dropped. Subsequent reports said NFL teams already knew about the incident and weren’t concerned, but any red flag is something front offices pay attention to this time of year.
Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama
Mar 1, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Alabama offensive lineman Kadyn Proctor (OL41) during the NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
A talented player struggling to stay in shape is a tale as old as time. That doesn’t mean Proctor will be the latest to deal with those issues, but his weight is a potential red flag as he prepares for his his NFL career.
Proctor measured in at 6-7 and 366 pounds at the NFL Combine, but he said weeks later that he was already down into the 350s and didn’t consider 365-370 an acceptable playing weight. Proctor showed up to training camp weighing about 390 pounds in 2025.
While the offensive tackle insists he can manage his weight and keep it where his future team wants it, the fluctuations at Alabama and his inconsistency on the field are concerns, as is Proctor’s mobility. The raw talent to be a strong pass protector is absolutely there, but more than a few offensive linemen have cost themselves money in the NFL by struggling to stay in shape.
MORE:Biggest, strongest, fastest from 2026 NFL Combine
Drew Allar, QB, Penn State
Some consider Allar a boom-or-bust candidate. Others question whether there is any “boom” potential at all after the Penn State quarterback struggled to make the leap the Nittany Lions were hoping to see before going down with a season-ending injury in October.
Allar has the size and many of the tools of a prototypical NFL quarterback, but he couldn’t put it all together at Penn State, making some costly mistakes and never breaking through in an offense that wasn’t conducive to a great deal of success in the passing game.
All it takes for Allar to be drafted in the second or third round is one team that believes he wasn’t put in the best position to succeed at Penn State and has physical traits that can still be molded in the years ahead. While some quarterbacks are the exception, most don’t go from underwhelming at the collegiate level to quality starter at the NFL level. If Allar’s talent was going to shine through, it’s possible it would have by now.
MORE: NFL power rankings 2026 after free agency
Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon
Sadiq’s measurables were off the charts at the NFL Combine, cementing his first-round status and validating what many NFL teams already believed: he is an absolute physical specimen.
Dominating the combine, however, doesn’t always translate to dominating the NFL. Sadiq had all of those physical tools at Oregon, but it never quite resulted in dominant showings on the field. He didn’t break out until his junior season, which saw him put up 560 yards and eight touchdowns on 11 yards per catch. Sadiq had nine catches for 51 yards between Oregon’s two College Football Playoff games, which came against talented Texas Tech and Indiana defenses.
The talent is absolutely there, but the NFL team that selects Sadiq can’t expect him to be a finished product when he steps on the field. If he doesn’t end up in the right developmental situation, Sadiq could struggle to become one of the NFL’s top tight ends.
MORE:Ranking the 10 best tight ends in 2026 NFL Draft
Keldric Faulk, EDGE, Auburn
Auburn Tigers defensive end Keldric Faulk (15) blitzes as Auburn Tigers take on Ball State Cardinals at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, Ala. on Saturday, Sept. 6, 2025. Auburn Tigers defeated Ball State Cardinals 42-3. Imagn Images.
Shemar Stewart’s career still has a long way to go, but after a rookie season dominated more by a contract dispute than anything he did on the field, he is a warning sign for pass-rushers who have all of the physical traits but didn’t necessarily produce at the collegiate level.
Faulk produced more than Stewart did, to be clear. He posted seven sacks and 11 tackles for loss in 2024, emerging as a first-round prospect with top-10 potential, but two sacks and five tackles for loss over 12 games in 2025 were disappointing marks that raise more questions than answers.
Faulk impressed at the NFL Combine with a massive wingspan and strong performances on the field, coming in at a 9.10 Relative Athletic Score, but Stewart serves as a reminder that betting on physical traits without production is a significant risk that might not be worth taking in the first round.
MORE: Ranking top 10 wide receivers in 2026 NFL Draft
Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee
McCoy looked every bit like a first-round pick at Tennessee in 2024 after coming over from Oregon State, but there is always risk associated with using a first-round pick on a player coming off a major injury.
It’s been about 16 months since McCoy last played competitive football, so a team looking to plug him right into its secondary has to expect rust at the very least. The Cowboys selected potential first-round talent Shavon Revel Jr. in the third round of the 2025 draft off a torn ACL, and Revel struggled mightily in his five-game stint as a rookie.
McCoy’s injury is in the distant past compared to Revel, and he already impressed with a 4.38 40-yard dash in the lead-up to the draft. Given McCoy is expected to be available for the start of the season, it’s not a one-to-one comparison. Still, spending a premium draft pick on a player who has been away from the field for so long and has a major knee injury on his record is riskier than the average selection.