Move over, Sam Bradford. The infamous rookie contract the then-St. Louis Rams awarded the former University of Oklahoma quarterback in 2010—the breaking point that led to the implementation of the NFL’s rigid rookie wage scale the following year—is finally being eclipsed.
If Indiana University quarterback Fernando Mendoza is selected by the Las Vegas Raiders with the first overall pick in the NFL draft on Thursday night—as is widely expected—he is projected to sign a fully guaranteed four-year, $54.6 million contract, including a $36.1 million signing bonus, according to contract database Spotrac. That total would exceed the $50 million in guaranteed money that Bradford received in 2010, part of a six-year deal that was worth up to $86 million.
Since the 2011 ratification of the league’s collective bargaining agreement with its players’ union, every NFL draft pick has had a fixed slot value predetermined by a formula tied to the salary cap, which will rise to a record $301.2 million per team for the 2026 season, from $279.2 million in 2025. Every incoming rookie drafted in Thursday’s first round will receive a fully guaranteed four-year deal, which Spotrac projects will slide to $52.1 million for the second pick and eventually down to $16.2 million for the 32nd pick, held by the reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks.
Before Bradford helped bring to a close the wild west era of unregulated rookie contracts, Matthew Stafford landed a $41.7 million guarantee in 2009, and JaMarcus Russell, arguably the biggest draft bust ever, signed for $32 million guaranteed as the top pick in 2007.
In those days, rookies had the leverage of threatening to hold out for more money, and the cellar dwellers that earned the No. 1 pick every year were usually desperate enough to pay up to give their fans hope. But the contracts were ballooning so fast that it created a rift among players. Before Bradford had ever taken an NFL snap, his contract included more guaranteed money than even Tom Brady and Peyton Manning were receiving at the time, in the primes of their careers.
“There were a lot of issues that were contentious in those [CBA] negotiations, but taking a scalpel to rookie pay was not,” says Andrew Brandt, executive director of Villanova University’s sports law center and a former vice president of the Green Bay Packers. “The owners wanted it because they were embarrassed by these contracts, and the people negotiating for the players’ side were veteran players who were happy to move money away from rookie pay into veteran pay.”
The 2011 draft took place in the middle of a four-month lockout amid those negotiations, but when the dust settled, No. 1 pick Cam Newton had to settle for a mere $22 million over four years.
The rookie wage scale has gradually pushed contracts higher since then, with the biggest jump coming in 2025 following a few years of limited growth in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. After Caleb Williams inked a $39.5 million contract as the top pick in 2024, Cam Ward last year hauled in $48.8 million, with a $32.2 million signing bonus, thanks to a significant salary-cap increase driven by the NFL’s new media rights deals.
For the first time in 2025, several second-round picks also received fully guaranteed contracts. Guarantees gradually drop off as the rest of the draft progresses.
Here are Spotrac’s projections for the contract value and signing bonus for each first-round pick in this year’s draft. The top three selections are all expected to cross the $50 million threshold.
While Bradford’s contract cast a constant shadow over a lackluster career, with his 34-48-1 record as a starter from 2010 to 2018, Mendoza’s contract won’t be an albatross whether or not the 22-year-old reigning national champion and Heisman Trophy winner excels on the field. Bradford still has him beat when accounting for inflation—$50 million in 2010 would be roughly $76 million today—and the $13 million average annual value of Bradford’s rookie contract represented more than 10% of the salary cap 15 years ago.
By contrast, Mendoza’s projected $13.6 million per year average as the first overall pick would be only 4.5% of this year’s cap, giving the Raiders—or whichever team takes him—flexibility to build around him. Several of the league’s top quarterbacks now make more than $50 million per year.
“For someone like Mendoza, he’ll be paid less than any starting quarterback in the league on a veteran contract,” says Brandt. “For positions like quarterback and edge rusher, these rookie contracts are extremely valuable to teams.”
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This article was originally published on Forbes.com