NEWTOWN SQUARE, Pa. — Look, I don’t want to jinx anything here. It’s possible that someone is going to grab control of the PGA Championship on Sunday and run away with it, stiff-arming the field and walking up the 18th at Aronimink Golf Club with a four-shot lead.
You know what’s even more possible? We’re headed for a free-for-all like golf rarely sees, a jailbreak where we won’t know the winner of the year’s second major until the final putt on 18 — and maybe not even then.
“It’s a jam-packed leaderboard,” conceded Xander Schauffele, who’s in the mix after a -4 Saturday. “Come (Sunday), there’s going to be 25, 30 guys within striking distance with 9 to 10 holes to play.”
Heading into Sunday’s final round there are, actually, 22 players within four shots of the lead, 30 within five.
Alex Smalley, the loneliest man in professional golf, holds the lead at -6. Behind him at -4: pretty much everyone. If Smalley, in the final pairing Saturday, hadn’t suddenly caught fire with six birdies in his final 10 holes, the leaderboard would have been as thick as it’s ever been in a major championship. The combination of pin placement and wind kept the entire field bunched up, and until Smalley, no one — not future Hall of Famers, not journeymen, not rookies with the round of their life — was able to put any distance on the field.
Five players stand at -4 (including Jon Rahm), four at -3 (including Rory McIlroy), and a ridiculous 12 at -2.
The question for Smalley now is whether he can avoid the nerves that torched his opening holes on Saturday. DataGolf lists him with a 17.5% chance to win, best of any player in the field, with Ludvig Aberg (13.1%) and Rahm (12.7%), both at -4, not far behind.
This is exactly what a major ought to be: the world’s best players teein g it up with no margin for error, two dozen of their colleagues ready to steal their lunch. There’s an old line about how in golf, you’re not playing your opponent; you’re playing the course — but Sunday at the PGA Championship will be the golf equivalent of a Royal Rumble, a last-man-standing brawl that will test players in ways they aren’t often tested.
“If I wasn’t playing this tournament, I’d love what’s going on this week,” Rory McIlroy said after his round, “but watching and playing are two different things.”
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Saturday was one of the more remarkable days in recent major history; after two days of grim weather and diabolical pin placements, the field arrived at Aronimink to find warm weather and friendly pins. They responded pretty much the way Kentucky Derby horses do when the gates burst open, charging forward to post -5 round after -5 round.
On a land-rush day like Saturday, a two-under round was table stakes; an even-par round would leave you watching the leaders fade into the distance. Kristoffer Reitan, Chris Kirk and Justin Rose set the pace early with -5 rounds. When the afternoon wave teed off, a swirling breeze caused havoc all over the course and tamped down scores, leaving everyone bunched at the top.
In total, there were 15 — 15! — different players who held at least a share of the lead on Saturday.
Smalley, who started the day in the co-lead, made things harder on himself by bogeying three of this first four holes, then rebounded with some spectacular grit and grace. He was one of the few players in the afternoon waves to post low numbers. Even the mighty Scottie Scheffler, defending champion at this event, struggled and finished with a +1 round to leave himself at -1 for the tournament.
“When it’s a congested Sunday,” Patrick Reed said, echoing the players’ theme of the day, “not always great for the competitor(s), but it’s great for fans.
“The great thing about all the golf courses we play, no matter where it is, whatever major championship we’re playing, if you’re hitting the ball well and you’re putting well, you’re going to be able to handle anything,” Reed (-3 on the week) continued. “We’re the best players in the world, so when they throw a really hard challenge at us, that’s when the top players are going to show up.”
Perfect. Bring it on.