Previewing the WNBA’s 30th season with 30 key stats to track across every team in the league

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A new WNBA season is on the horizon. Not just any season; the 30th season in league history. There’s a more celebratory tone heading into this year, and rightfully so: the league has come a long way, and has a new, life-changing CBA to prove it. 

With the season tipping off on Friday, it felt fitting to preview the upcoming season with a twist. 

We have 30 stats to monitor ahead of the league’s 30th season. With 15 teams — welcome to the party, Portland Fire and Toronto Tempo — that gives us two stats per team to work with to get you ready.

Let’s dig in, shall we?

(Joseph Raines/Yahoo Sports Illustration)

Tale of the Tape: 30-14 (3rd), 108.2 offensive rating (2nd), 98.9 defensive rating (2nd), +9.3 net rating (2nd)

The Big Number: 648

When Karl Smesko was hired by the Dream, many pointed to his affinity for the 3-pointer as an easy-to-project culture shift. Indeed, the Dream saw a pretty dramatic uptick in 3s: a whopping 41.8% (2nd) of the Dream’s shot attempts were 3s, way up from 28.5% (9th) in 2024.

What kinda went under the radar: the Dream were able to do that while also posting up like an early 2000s team.

Brittney Griner (338; now with the Connecticut Sun) and Bri Jones (310) led the WNBA in post touches last season, combining for a whopping 648 during the regular season. To put that into perspective:

  • The Chicago Sky, second among teams in post touches, logged 523

  • Griner logged more post touches than seven teams

  • Jones logged more post touches than six teams

That doesn’t sound like a fling-and-pray team to me!

With Jones recovering from knee surgery and Griner no longer there, I’m curious to see what the interior touches are going to look like.

They’re not going to do away with post-ups entirely, but we may see the purpose of those touches shift in a real way. Newcomer Angel Reese and last year’s 6th Player of the Year Naz Hillmon will likely soak up more post touches, but I’d expect those touches to be vehicles to off-ball movement — for the NBA fans, think of the way the Warriors flow into their post splits — more than actual scoring opportunities. 

With that said, it’s worth noting that both Reese and Hillmon showcased growth in those spots. Hillmon’s aggression perked up in a real way, while Reese became more adept at doing her work early with seals and finding cleaner finishing angles (in addition to her already-strong foul-drawing). 

There’s still more growth available for both; I’m curious to see what the literal volume looks like.

Also Important: 34.6%

One potential effect of Jones’ injury, and potentially lower volume of (low) post touches, could be the Dream leaning further into their 5-out principles. 

The Dream were in a 5-out alignment on 34.6% of their ball screens last season, eighth in the league and slightly below the league average (34.7). In their two preseason games, that figure rose to 40.4% — a noticeable upswing.

With their ball screens, you not only saw all five players above the 3-point line to start, you’d also see subtle relocations during the action to put strain on help defenders — particularly the low man.

Account too much for the roll, and a 3 for a sniper like Te-Hina Paopao opens up:

Account too much for the lift to the wing, and a roll from Reese opens up:

Keep things 2-on-2, and you risk letting a budding star like Rhyne Howard lead the dance: 

Also of note: Help defenders were present on 69.6% of Dream drives last season, a noticeable drop from 2024 (roughly 72%) but still the fourth-highest rate in the league. 

In general, I’m curious to see how things open up for the Dream.

Tale of the Tape: 10-34 (12th), 97.0 offensive rating (12th), 109.9 defensive rating (last), -12.8 net rating (12th)

The Big Number: 95

As basketball continues to evolve, the rigidity of traditional positions only means so much — at least to me. We’ve seen, across the WNBA and NBA, an uptick in forwards and bigs being the recipient of guard-like actions and responsibilities. 

More grab-and-gos, more pick-and-roll reps as the ball-handler, more decisions being made as a hub, more off-ball screens received to set up perimeter touches. Naturally, that’s led to an uptick in guards setting screens on and off the ball. That inversion, and the evolution of that inversion, has been fun to track.

Still, you do need reliable ball-handlers that can draw and capitalize on the attention they receive. 

Being able to run offense through Kamilla Cardoso, or allowing newcomer Rickea Jackson (I still have mac-and-cheese-related questions!) to spread her wings are appealing options; you still want players that can get them the ball in favorable spots and, in general, make life easier for them as they expand.

Only 95 of the Sky’s 850 assists came from natural point guards last season. I’d think, with Skylar Diggins being given the keys, the eventual return of Courtney Vandersloot, and the late addition of Natasha Cloud on the roster, that figure will be much higher this season. 

Also Important: 35.5%

The Sky have been among the league leaders in offensive rebound rate — the percentage of available offensive rebounds secured — across the past two seasons. It’s hard not to rank highly when you have Angel Reese, arguably the greatest offensive rebounder of all time, on your roster.

(As a quick aside, this is my PSA to use things like offensive rebound rate instead of the pure per-game number. Every team plays at a different pace, so the percentage is a lot more reflective of how good or bad they are at something compared to the rest of the league. Grabbing a high percentage of your misses is better framing; even the most efficient scoring teams want extra possessions.)

Last season, the Sky led the WNBA by grabbing 35.5% of their own misses. It’s worth wondering, in light of Reese’s departure and some of the structural changes to the offense, just how hard the Sky will hit the offensive glass this year. 

Tale of the Tape: 11-33 (11th), 95.9 offensive rating (last), 108.8 defensive rating (11th), -12.9 net rating (last) 

The Big Number: 20.8

The post-up volume for the Sun was loud during preseason play: 33 reps across their two games, and a rate of 20.8 post-ups per 100 possessions.

It’s easy to press the Brittney Griner button here — she did account for 18 of those 33 (led the preseason) — but I was impressed by how rude and intentional the Sun were with some of these touches.

It felt like any time a guard or wing was cross-matched, whether that was due to transition randomness or a switch given after some sort of screen, you’d see a Sun player duck in and put their hand up. 

Griner’s first preseason bucket came against a helpless Kia Nurse, who had no choice but to pick up Griner during a transition possession. Aaliyah Edwards drew an early double team in a similar transition context by sealing guard Kristy Wallace. In their matchup against the Liberty, both Aneesah Morrow and Kennedy Burke buried guard Rebekah Gardner with random seal-and-attacks.

We may see a good bit of bullyball in Connecticut this year.

Also Important: 3

Among the players to secure $1 million or more during this year’s accelerated free agency period, Burke may have gotten the least amount of fanfare. Wings that can credibly defend multiple positions and knock down 3s are rare; wings that can credibly defend multiple positions, knock down 3s, and self-create are even more rare.

It’s why, in addition to the random post-up against Gardner, I was intrigued with this possession against the Liberty:

Burke attempted only three triples off the bounce last season, and attempted multiple (though one didn’t count) in this game. 

The pull-up shooting for the roster overall will be important; I’d love to see steps taken from Leila Lacan, Saniya Rivers and others. But I’m really curious to see how willing Burke is to let it fly.

Tale of the Tape: 10-34 (last), 101.6 offensive rating (9th), 109.1 defensive rating (12th), -7.5 net rating (11th)

The Big Number: 10.5

If we’ve learned anything from new head coach Jose Fernandez, he’s excited about how much pressure his team will be able to put on opposing defenses.

If we’ve seen anything from the Wings during preseason play, it’s that this group is going to play fast and put teams through the wringer with off-ball screening and movement. 

(More like the Winger? No? Sorry, trying to delete …)

They did such a great job of flowing from side to side if their initial action didn’t work. Having perimeter threats like Paige Bueckers, this year’s top pick in Azzi Fudd, and (eventually) All-Star Arike Ogunbowale gives the Wings the opportunity to pressure defenses on one side and strain them on the other.

With the additions of Alanna Smith and Jessica Shepard, they have a pair of frontcourt pieces that can pry those players open with great screens while being plus-passers in their own right. 

To the screening portion, I’ve really enjoyed their use of flares early in possessions, making it even more difficult for defenses to match and load up:

Per Synergy tracking data, the Wings generated 10.5 points per game via off-ball screens during preseason action, tops among all teams. They averaged only 3.5 last year, closer to the middle of the pack (7th). 

It wouldn’t shock me at all if they’re among the league leaders, if not the league leader this season.

Also Important: 21.7%

Only 21.7% of Bueckers’ shot attempts came from deep last season, a number I’d expect to climb quite a bit. At the very least, it’s something that Fernandez has discussed with Bueckers, and a growth area that Bueckers has acknowledged:

When I asked Fernandez about Bueckers’ ideal 3-point volume, he noted he doesn’t have a specific number in mind, but emphasized how important strong spacing and smart reads were to opening up the full breadth of the offense:

Bueckers is already one of the best playmakers and midrange scorers in the league. Becoming a more reliable and willing threat from deep will only make her, and the Wings, more difficult to deal with.

Tale of the Tape: 23-21 (8th), 101.5 offensive rating (10th), 99.8 defensive rating (3rd), +1.7 net rating (8th)

The Big Number: 52.2

There is, uh, plenty of discussion about the transaction history of the Valkyries circulating at the moment. I won’t indulge in the negative here; I’d instead like to circle back to their biggest acquisition of the offseason: former Storm wing Gabby Williams.

She’s one of the most dynamic defenders we have in the league, equally terrifying when deployed as an on-ball menace or an off-ball missile. I have no real concerns about how she’s going to slot into what was an elite defense last year; her and Veronica Burton (more on her shortly) are going to be one of my favorite defensive duos to watch this season.

The intrigue for me comes on the other end. Williams averaged 52.2 touches per game last season, 35th in the league and third among Storm players. She’s a bursty driver and a quality playmaker, though, like Burton entering last season, there are some questions about the viability of her jumper.

I’m curious to see how head coach Natalie Nakase plans to use her in half-court settings. Their spacing principles and actions were among my favorites in the league, even if the personnel couldn’t quite maximize it — they were 10th in offensive rating, after all. 

Also Important: 6

Burton attempted seven 3s in her lone preseason game, knocking down four of them. You take a 4-of-7 clip any day of the week; you especially take that with the variety she displayed. There were standstill 3s, relocation triples, and some off-the-dribble goodness in her film.

(Also: Per Second Spectrum’s fancy tracking data, Burton’s gather and shot motion on 3s were a tick faster compared to previous years, while the arc on her jumper was a tad higher. If the jumper felt a little different when watching, that’s probably why. A one-game sample isn’t enough to definitively say it’s changed, but it’s worth keeping an eye on.)

Burton logged only six games last year — four in the regular season and both postseason games — where she attempted seven or more 3s. Considering her prowess as a driver, playmaker and defender, a(nother) leap with her jumper is the only thing missing to stamp her as a firm All-WNBA caliber player. 

Tale of the Tape: 24-20 (6th), 106.2 offensive rating (3rd), 101.8 defensive rating (7th), +4.5 net rating (4th)

The Big Number: 0.93

Much has been made about the publicly conveyed desire to give Caitlin Clark some off-ball reps. It’s a common sense counter to the way teams defend her. 

Clark has dealt with legitimate backcourt pressure — a defender picking up her beyond half-court while actually getting into her handle — 928 times since entering the league in 2024, per Second Spectrum. Not only is that tops in the league, she’s the only player above 900 reps — and that’s with her appearing in only 13 games last season.

Over the past two seasons, on possessions where Clark was on the floor but didn’t bring the ball up, the Fever generated 0.93 points per trip. That’s a fine number, slightly above the league average of 0.91 in that span, but certainly lower than when Clark did the honors (0.96).

During the preseason, the Fever generated over 1.4 points per trip on the possessions where Clark was on the floor but didn’t bring the ball up. Now, that is a wildly unsustainable number for several reasons, but the process we saw is what should excite people. 

With Kelsey Mitchell, Raven Johnson, or even Aliyah Boston bringing the ball up the floor, Clark can be utilized in different ways. On a basic level, she could be afforded more spot-up opportunities. In terms of actual movement, we got to see Clark flying off of screens to either set up a touch:

Or to set a screen herself:

To the latter example, the Fever were experimenting with Boston initiating ball screens last season so this isn’t exactly new. But if we see the volume jump, I can’t imagine defenses having much fun deciding on a coverage. Do you really want to switch a small onto Boston? Do you really want a big or even a forward trying to chase Clark around? 

Also Important: 19%

The Fever made a noticeable leap defensively last year, going from one of the league’s worst units in 2024 (107.5 defensive rating, 11th of 12 teams) to a serviceable group last year (101.8, 7th). 

A big part of that growth was their uptick in aggression. Their pick-up points were higher; bigs were at the level of screens more often; their off-ball physicality was arguably the toughest in the league to deal with. Because of this, they forced a lot of turnovers; opponents coughed it up on 19% of their possessions last season, the third-highest rate in the league.

It generally isn’t easy to replicate that high of a figure as offenses (and spacing) across the league continue to get better. Luckily, the Fever have the personnel to maintain their concepts from last year; Johnson in particular should be a stocks (steals + blocks) monster for this group if the preseason is any indication.

Tale of the Tape: 30-14 (2nd), 105.9 offensive rating (4th), 101.9 defensive rating (8th), +3.9 net rating (5th)

The Biggest Number: 4

I mean, we kinda have to start with the fact that the Aces are going for their fourth championship in five seasons. 

If they’re able to pull this off, they’d join the Houston Comets and Minnesota Lynx as the only franchises in league history with four titles. They’d also join the Comets as the only ones to win back-to-back titles twice. 

(I will say: considering the Comets won the first four titles in league history, I feel like there should probably be a separate designation for them. Their early run of dominance still boggles my mind.)

The Big, Also Important Number: 1,043

Ask Becky Hammon, A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, owner Mark Davis, or BUCKET$ the mascot — anyone related to this team, really — and they’ll tell you that defense is the key to the Aces’ success. 

For all the firepower the Aces have, it’s effectively moot to them if they aren’t locked into their principles on the other end. 

Their main principle, based on last year and what we’ve seen in the preseason, is switching. They want to flatten out actions and keep the ball in front. When you have the reigning co-DPOY in Wilson, a wicked-strong wing in Young, and a guard that can effectively defend 4s in Gray, it’s easy to see why cross-matching and a high dose of switching has been on the table for them.

They switched 1,043 screens last (regular) season; not only was that the top mark in the league, they were the only team to switch 500+ on-ball and off-ball screens. They also allowed around 0.8 points per trip in either context, well below the league average (roughly 0.85).

The early returns in preseason have not been kind; their first half against Japan was a rough one, and the Wings toyed with them for most of their matchup. Tightening the screws there should make it easier for them to get off to a better start than they did last season. 

While their midseason turnaround (and seemingly endless win streak) was impressive, I don’t think they want to be in position to need that kind of run this season.

Tale of the Tape: 21-23 (9th), 105.2 offensive rating (6th), 108.5 defensive rating (10th), -3.3 net rating (9th)

The Big Number: 0.85

The Sparks had a clear goal entering this offseason: improve the defense.

It was seemingly the primary motivation behind trading Rickea Jackson to the Sky for Ariel Atkins, a multi-time All-Defense selection. It had to be a big part of bringing back Nneka Ogwumike, a future Hall-of-Famer who, even at this stage of her career, is a high-level defender that doubles as a scheme fit.

The Sparks deployed one of the most aggressive defenses in the league, opting to have their bigs at the level of screens or higher in an attempt to disrupt rhythm or force turnovers.

When they ramped things up against ball screens, via show-and-recover or an outright trap, they allowed 0.85 points per trip — a much lower figure than their overall pick-and-roll number (0.92), but ninth among teams executing those more aggressive coverages.

(The stingiest aggressive coverage team on that list? The team that employed Ogwumike last season: the Seattle Storm.)

I was pleasantly surprised to see the Sparks opt for more drop coverage looks during preseason action, though I’m curious how much of that is an actual shift in philosophy versus it being a nod to the teams they faced. 

Either way, I’ll be keeping an eye on what the Sparks look like whenever they do ramp things up.

Also Important: 167

I’m fascinated by the lineups the Sparks will toss out this year, whether it’s a starting/closing group or something we see in the flow of a game. 

Near the top of the list for me are the lineups where we’ll see Kelsey Plum paired with Erica Wheeler or rookie Ta’Niya Latson, who impressed during preseason play. 

Plum showcased real growth as a lead guard last season, having to face her own share of aggressive coverages while looking to get others involved more consistently. While acknowledging that growth, I still think Plum is at her best when she gets to attack a defense that’s already tilted. It affords her more catch-and-shoot opportunities, accentuates her driving skills, and makes the playmaking growth pop more.

Plum attacked 167 closeouts last season, a mark that ranked [checks notes] 48th in the league. It was a natural decline from her 2024 campaign in Vegas (270) considering the shift in role. It may not be that this year, but between some of the Plum-at-the-2 lineups the Sparks can toss out, and attention that Ogwumike and Dearica Hamby can draw, could we get up to 200 at least?

Tale of the Tape: 34-10 (1st), 109.5 offensive rating (1st), 97.5 defensive rating (1st), +12.1 net rating (1st)

The Big Number: 68.7%

As great as the Lynx were last season, one of the few holes you could poke in them last season — and the two seasons prior, honestly — was their inability to end possessions on the glass. They grabbed just 68.7% of available defensive rebounds, ninth in the league. Considering they had very good individual rebounders — Napheesa Collier and Courtney Williams in particular are among the best at their positions — it was odd watching some of their struggles in that regard.

My theory: their mix of space-eating switches and aggressive help at the nail (free-throw line area) could fluster opponents and work them later in the clock, but it would sometimes leave the Lynx behind the 8-ball when it was time to turn and box out. 

With Alanna Smith and Jessica Shepard in Dallas, Maria Kliundikova no longer on a roster, and Collier on the mend, a whopping 52.1% of the Lynx’s defensive rebounds from last season will be missing. The Collier absence looms especially large; not only is she their best player, she’s one of the league’s best half-court weapons.

Transition basketball will be even more important to the Lynx while Collier’s out; it’s a lot harder to get out and run if you don’t secure rebounds. This will be the swing stat for me.

Also Important: 74

Last season, we got 74 minutes of Williams, Natisha Hiedeman (now in Seattle), and Kayla McBride on the floor together without Collier. The Lynx won those minutes by five points, mostly off the strength of their defense (97.9 defensive rating).

Why does that matter?

It gives us a reference point to compare with what we’ll get from the trio of Williams, McBride, and Rookie of the Year favorite Olivia Miles. 

I’m super excited about what this trio could look like together. Miles’ preseason film is littered with explosive drives and live-dribble reads; she should be able to take some of the point guard duties off the plate of Williams. And because Williams is there, Miles won’t be tasked with doing everything and should have her fair share of second-side opportunities.

All of that should unlock off-ball fun for McBride, who can operate as a secondary creator in her own right, but thrives as a where-did-she-go shooting threat. 

Tale of the Tape: 27-17 (5th), 105.8 offensive rating (5th), 100.6 defensive rating (6th), +5.2 net rating (3rd)

The Big Number: 74.8

Based on the listed heights of Sabrina Ionescu, Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, Leonie Fiebich, Satou Sabally, Breanna Stewart, and Jonquel Jones, the Liberty’s projected top-six has an average height of 74.8 inches — roughly a 6-foot-3 player. 

Considering the skill sets of these players — a heavy mix of pull-up and spot-up shooting, high-level playmaking, driving prowess, midrange bucket-getting, post brutality, and multipositional defense — it’s hard not to be high on the potential of the Liberty. 

On paper, not many teams can match their high-end talent or collective size; the list of teams that can match both is incredibly small.

(Of course, I argued the same thing last year — especially after the midseason addition of Emma Meesseman — and their season ultimately ended in a first-round exit. Nothing’s guaranteed in this league!)

Injuries and overseas commitments mean we won’t get to see the full assortment to begin the year, a potential hitch you don’t want for first-year head coach Chris DeMarco, but I’m excited to see what this group looks like.

Also Important: 48.5%

One of the oddities of the Liberty’s title-defense year was their inability to grab rebounds, period. 

Injuries and spacing tweaks cut into their offensive rebounding, grabbing 29.9% (5th) of their own misses in 2024 but only 25.2% (last) last season. You can get away with that dip if you end possessions at a high clip; they certainly didn’t do that, grabbing 68.9% of available defensive rebounds (9th) after leading the league (74.3%) the year before. 

Overall, they grabbed 48.5% of all available misses — 10th in the league after, you guessed it, leading the league (52.5%) during their title year.

As high as I am on the Liberty’s skilled size, they simply can’t have a repeat of last season on the glass. I apologize in advance for the pun, but they have to clean this up.

Tale of the Tape: 27-17 (4th), 103.6 offensive rating (7th), 100.4 defensive rating (5th), +3.2 net rating (6th)

The Big Number: .677

This is an easy one: across the last four seasons, Alyssa Thomas has won nearly 68% (.677) of the regular season games she’s appeared in. That’s what four straight MVP-plus-DPOY-caliber campaigns can lead to. 

There’s some understandable angst around the Mercury heading into this season. The departure of Satou Sabally (Liberty) and the recent announcement of Sami Whitcomb being out for at least a month bring on questions of offensive consistency for a team that wound up close to league-average on that end (though late-season injuries/sit-outs affect that placement).

It’s just so hard to bet against Thomas, a high-level floor-raiser because of her driving, playmaking, defensive versatility, and impact on the transition game; her possession-ending via steals and rebounds puts opponents on their heels almost immediately.

Also Important: 47

When watching the Mercury during preseason play, one of the first things I noticed was how willing Kahleah Copper was to fire from deep. It felt like any time she had a pocket of space — in transition, in the half-court, lurking off the ball, attacking a drop or loose switch — she didn’t mind letting it fly.

Copper’s off-the-dribble scoring overall will be important to this year’s version of the Mercury, but I’m keeping an eye on her 3s in particular. She only attempted 47 3s off the bounce last season, knocking them down at a near-32% clip per Synergy tracking. 

Based on recent media comments, Copper seems very aware of the growth and opportunity ahead of her on that front:

A version of Copper that can put immense pressure on the rim, while complementing that with versatile 3-point shooting, is very dangerous.

Tale of the Tape: N/A

The Big Number: 29.8%

There’s only so much Fire film we have to go on, but one of the things that popped immediately for me was how they looked to space the floor around their actions.

Most notably, they had a player in the dunker spot (subscribe!) on 29.8% of their pick-and-rolls during preseason play, easily the highest mark among teams. To put that into perspective, the Sky led the league with a 24.5% clip last season. 

That, combined with a healthy mix of empty side actions — often paired with timely cuts and off-ball screens to occupy defenders — made for an enjoyable viewing experience. They seem well-coached, an early feather in the cap for Alex Sarama:

As we saw with the Valkyries last season, strong offensive concepts and principles don’t guarantee strong results, but establishing that foundation is important.

Also Important: 12

We’ll focus on Carla Leite here, a speedy reserve for the Valkyries last season who’s primed to be a full-time starter with the Fire this season. 

She logged 12 games (five starts) of at least 20 minutes last season, and largely produced when given extended opportunities: 12.0 points (55/17/82 splits), 2.7 assists, and 1.2 steals in 25.2 minutes. The Valkyries generated 1.04 points per trip featuring a Leite drive last season, 11th among 63 players to log at least 100 drives.

The combination of on-ball opportunities paired with the Fire’s spacing principles has me pretty excited about what this Leite season could be. 

Tale of the Tape: 23-21 (7th), 103 offensive rating (8th), 100.1 defensive rating (4th), +2.9 net rating (7th)

The Big Number: 30.4

Can I just say I’m a pretty big fan of the Flau’jae Johnson fit in Seattle?

For one, I don’t think she’s stopped smiling since she’s been there. Beyond that, there seems to be a strong understanding of where Johnson is as a player and it shines through on film.

She’s an explosive driver, but one with a handle that will need growth to reach her full potential. To alleviate that, the Storm have largely stationed her off the ball to begin possessions. There’s catch-and-shoot utility there, but they’ve also been intentional about running her off screens to set up her on-ball reps. That head start puts defenses in peril, and makes it easier for her to get downhill: 

Johnson received 24 off-ball screens across her two preseason games, roughly 30.4 per 100 possessions. That latter number would’ve ranked seventh in the league last season, slightly below Paige Bueckers (30.6) but ahead of Kahleah Copper (28.3). 

I don’t know if she’s going to be receiving off-ball screens at a top-10 rate, but the process is incredibly sound. New head coach Sonia Raman deserves a salute for having an early handle (no pun intended) on this.

Also Important: 15.4%

While Seattle’s offense wasn’t the most exotic last season, the one thing you could count on was them actually getting shots up. They turned the ball over on only 15.4% of their possessions, the lowest mark in the league. 

There’s a ton of veteran talent out of the door, namely Ogwumike (Sparks), Diggins (Sky) and Williams (Valkyries). With the team shifting younger while also being under new stewardship, it’s worth tracking how the offense will flow this year. 

I’m anticipating an uptick in decision-making from the bigs. You obviously want to see Dominique Malonga spread her wings (and dunk a few more times, if she wants), but lottery pick Awa Fam will likely see her fair share of high-post touches, too. Veteran big Stefanie Dolson is also no stranger to being used as a handoff hub.

It makes sense structurally, but I’d also expect the turnover rate to be higher than last year’s. The degree in which it’s higher could be the difference between being last year’s Mystics — a team that was hovering around the playoff picture before making trades — or a team that is firmly at the bottom of the standings all year.

Tale of the Tape: N/A

The Big Number: $2.39 million

Per the good folks at Her Hoop Stats, $2.39 million is the combined salary for All-Star wing Brittney Sykes and all-around bucket-getter Marina Mabrey this season.

Consider me intrigued by the inside-out dynamic these two can provide, and how they can help take pressure off of each other. 

Sykes saw a second defender on 15.7% of her touches last season, fifth among 91 players to log at least 1,000 touches. Mabrey was blitzed on over 12% of her pick-and-rolls last year, trailing only Paige Bueckers (14.3%) among 47 players to run at least 300. 

I’d imagine the threat of Mabrey’s shooting will make it more difficult for teams to load up against Sykes in the same way. Similarly, I don’t know if teams will be comfortable ramping things up against Mabrey if Sykes is available to attack tilted defenses. The juice from both should make life a little easier for rookie Kiki Rice whenever all three share the floor.

Also Important: 57.7

Again, there’s only so much to glean from preseason film, but the Tempo’s pick-up points defensively certainly caught my eye.

They had an average pick-up distance of 57.7 feet, a full 10 feet higher than last year’s league-leading mark from the Connecticut Sun (47.5). I don’t expect it to be that aggressive once the regular season starts — it’d be borderline irresponsible to do that across 44 games — but that kind of pressure being established early leads me to believe they’ll be among the league leaders this season. 

I, for one, am excited to watch Sykes and Rice in particular be rude to opposing guards.

Tale of the Tape: 16-28 (10th), 97.2 offensive rating (11th), 103.2 defensive rating (9th), -6.0 net rating (10th)

The Big Number: 19.4

No, 19.4 isn’t the average age of this Mystics group, though it might not be that far off.

The Mystics are a fascinating basketball team for me specifically. I am a stickler for strong spacing principles, and I’m a strong believer in teams having the appropriate level of shooting to make life easier for their most important players (or prospects).

The Mystics are not stocked with shooting, again. However, they do a bang-up job of initiating their actions in different areas of the floor, and spacing in a way to put pressure on defenses anyway:

The Mystics generated a paint touch on 19.4% of their touches last season, the fourth-highest mark in the league. With their cast of bigs and pre-trade production of Brittney Sykes, that figure makes sense; you could argue it’s lower than expected.

The kicker: only four teams — the Valkyries, Mercury, Liberty, and Lynx — saw a second defender at a lower rate on those paint touches than the Mystics. 

That can be interpreted two ways:

  • Glass half-full: The spacing principles were so strong, and/or the actual paint touches were so deep, that opponents couldn’t send help without opening up something more fruitful

  • Glass half-empty: Opponents weren’t afraid of the players driving or posting up, so there was no need to send a second defender.

The answer was “both” depending on who had the ball, but I generally lean toward the half-full interpretation. They’re going to be an annoying (complimentary) team to deal with this year.

Also Important: 2009

A little Rookie of the Year history that could matter for the Mystics: 2009 was the first and only season where a primary reserve won the award. In fact, the top three vote getters were all reserves: Angel McCoughtry took home the honor, with DeWanna Bonner and Shavonte Zellous rounding things out.

(Now, I am tilting my head at McCoughtry winning Rookie of the Year, but finishing second to Bonner for Sixth Player of the Year. Her stats as a reserve were pretty similar to Bonner’s, so it’s not like you could argue a massive difference in productivity. Ah, well.)

I mention this because there’s a non-zero chance that Lauren Betts, who wowed during preseason play, comes off the bench to start the season. That could be frustrating for fans considering Betts’ draft slot and upside, but I wouldn’t consider it a massive deal or a long-term omen. 

The prospect of Betts beating up on second units is frankly terrifying; I also don’t anticipate head coach Sydney Johnson being reluctant to close games with her if the situation calls for it. Regardless of if she’s part of the opening tip or not, Betts should get plenty of opportunity and find herself in the thick of this year’s Rookie of the Year race.

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