Adding to that, the track characteristics, temperatures and conditions at each round will swing in the favour of different teams. Being confident in predicting how that plays out at each track is very difficult in the new era, but given Miami has never been a stronghold for Mercedes – and it still took pole and the grand prix win last weekend, having never won there before – it might become just a blip. Or it might be the start of its downfall.
In short: too early to tell. But that’s a good thing, because it means we’ll be glued to the upcoming rounds to find out.
McLaren is already properly in the fight
Oleg Karpov, Motorsport.com Global edition:
Call me an optimist, but I still see McLaren coming back on top. The current standings don’t look particularly great for the team that won both titles last year, but if you break it down, the situation isn’t as bad as the numbers suggest. In fact, out of four races McLaren could easily have won two – in Japan and Miami – had circumstances played out just a bit differently. And that is with all the troubles the team experienced at the start of the season.
Most of those were related to getting to grips with the new product from Mercedes High Performance Powertrains. In China, none of the papaya cars were even able to start the race – but that’s something very unlikely to repeat. More importantly, it looks like the initial advantage Mercedes had as a works team has now more or less disappeared, as Miami was a clean weekend for McLaren from a reliability standpoint.
And the performance is there, too. Given the nature of the competition under the new regulations, we’re in for a season where the development race will, to some extent, become a yo-yo, too. There are still big gains to be found with these cars – as Miami proved – and each upgrade can potentially deliver more substantial steps than last year, for example. Mercedes will surely also make progress, but what McLaren has excelled at in recent seasons is exactly that – development.
Lando Norris, McLaren
There are also clear areas for improvement. Mercedes’ race starts have been consistently poor – something Toto Wolff openly described as “unacceptable”. It is reasonable to expect that this will be addressed, which would prevent their drivers – particularly Antonelli – from losing positions early on and allow them to capitalise more effectively on strong qualifying performances.
All things considered, McLaren’s step forward in Miami was impressive and, as reigning world champions, their credentials must be taken seriously. Red Bull has yet to fully reveal its true pace, and Ferrari cannot be ruled out just yet, so a genuine fight may well develop. But over the full season, Mercedes should still come out on top.
No, Miami was actually a missed opportunity for its rivals
Jose Carlos de Celis, Motorsport.com Spain:
Perhaps many would have answered yes right after the Miami sprint race, but Mercedes bounced back quickly. On Sundays, it remains the only team winning races. And that’s after a month without competition, during which its rivals have clearly closed the gap – though not enough to strip the Anglo-German outfit of the privilege of still having the best car in F1 2026.
McLaren will win races, and Antonelli will make the mistakes expected of someone his age as the pressure mounts. But there are two aspects that those who believe Mercedes is no longer the team to beat fail to consider. On the one hand, they have lost the lead at the start of every race, within the first few meters, and it’s not crazy to think that once they manage to hold on to their pole positions, we can expect even more lopsided victories and more boring races.
Oscar Piastri, McLaren
As Frederic Vasseur, Toto Wolff, and other team principals have acknowledged, the real battle now lies in the development race over the remainder of the season.
This brings an important question back to the table: could Mercedes lose what currently looks like two almost certain titles?
Predicting how the competition will unfold is clearly not an easy task, especially in the early phase of a completely new era. Still, the signs offer a glimpse of potential cracks in Mercedes’ solid armor.
We must not forget that the implementation of the ADUO system is approaching, along with stricter controls on engine compression ratios, an issue that sparked considerable debate at the start of the season.
Everyone remembers McLaren’s remarkable comeback following its mid-season updates in 2023, and then the Miami upgrades in 2024, which ultimately paved the way for two consecutive championship titles. The papaya team, therefore, is no stranger to winning formulas.
Ferrari, despite inconsistent performances and updates, remains a force to be reckoned with. As for Red Bull, it cannot be ruled out from securing podiums or even victories with a driver of Verstappen’s caliber, who thrives on competition as we saw last season.
Will the Silver Arrows lose? In my view, it is still too early to say. We need to wait until Canada before drawing clear conclusions about the season. What is already clear, however, is that this season is shaping up to be far more exciting than the pessimists had anticipated.
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