There’s the Cade Cunningham who spent six months as an MVP candidate, and there’s the Cade Cunningham we’re watching right now.
The first Cade was fifth on my MVP ballot, averaged 24 points and 10 assists, and quarterbacked Detroit to a 60-22 record and the top seed in the East. The second Cade is shooting 29% from 3, just had back-to-back games with more turnovers than made baskets, and is the face of a 1-seed Pistons team trailing the 8-seed Magic 3-1 in the opening round.
Now, in fairness to Cade, he did suffer a collapsed lung that knocked him out of the lineup for 11 games. And despite his inefficiencies, he’s still averaging 29 points per game. Detroit also isn’t built like a modern contender. We can talk about the shooting. We can talk about the secondary creation. We can talk about Jalen Duren turning into Darko Miličić.
You can say Detroit doesn’t have enough shooting around Cade. True. The Pistons finished 29th in 3-point attempts and 17th in accuracy, a profile that has screamed “playoff problem” all year long. Detroit starts a non-shooting wing in Ausar Thompson that Orlando constantly ignores, and it has plenty of other non-threats across positions from Duren at center to Tobias Harris at forward to Javonte Green at guard. Duncan Robinson is the only real threat to worry about. Otherwise, the Magic are packing the paint and daring anyone to shoot.
Well, this was the situation all year. With help defenders often present inside, Cunningham made only 52% of his shots at the rim in the half-court. That’s the worst mark of the 138 players with at least 100 attempts. Despite those struggles, Detroit still had a top-10 offensive rating because of his ability to get into the paint and create easy shots for teammates. But problems can grow in the playoffs. The Magic don’t want him in the paint at all since he definitely can’t make the defense pay from the perimeter. Cade is making only 25% of his dribble-jumper 3s in this series. Last postseason against the Knicks, he made just 17%. He’s a career 84% free-throw shooter with some real touch on his midrange jumper. Someday, his 3-pointer might come around. But so far it hasn’t, so the paint stays occupied.
You can say Detroit doesn’t have enough secondary creation. Also true. The front office looked at Harris, Caris LeVert, and Daniss Jenkins behind Cade and decided that was sufficient ball-handling depth. So their big trade deadline move was Jaden Ivey for Kevin Huerter, even though they have all of their future firsts and there were acquirable players who could’ve helped. Ayo Dosunmu may not have won the series for the Pistons, but he sure has been a swing factor over in Minnesota and didn’t even cost a single first. There were opportunities for Trey Murphy or Michael Porter Jr. A trade would’ve been extremely expensive, just like Desmond Bane was for the Magic, but sometimes paying through the nose is the cost of getting out of the first round.
Well, the creators they do have can’t get Cade going either. He’s making 27% of his catch-and-shoot jumpers in the series, down from 35% in his career. Neither number makes a defense sweat. So the secondary playmaker Detroit never went out and got would’ve been feeding a star who hasn’t punished anyone without the ball in his hands anyway.
You can say Duren has been a disaster. Definitely true. The runner-up for Most Improved Player went from 19.5 points on 65% shooting in the regular season to 9.8 on 47% in the playoffs. Wendell Carter Jr. has taken his lunch money four games in a row. Jamal Cain produced the dunk of the playoffs over him. And this is the second straight playoffs in which Duren got outplayed by the opponent’s bigs. Last year against the Knicks, it was the same story. He’s an All-Star center heading into free agency, and he’s been so bad in this series that Detroit now has to figure out what he’s actually worth.
Well, Cade is the one who has to get Duren the ball. He hasn’t. In Games 2, 3 and 4, he had 24 total turnovers. That’s the most over a three-game stretch in NBA playoff history. I watched all 24 of them: six were a result of the Magic sending two at him. But 10 were sloppy, inaccurate passes, and eight were the result of the ball simply being poked away one-on-one or carelessness with his handle. Averaging 6.8 turnovers per game doesn’t happen purely because of the defense.
Every Pistons problem leads back to the same place. The shooting is a problem, but Cade also can’t exploit the defense. The lack of creation matters, but Cade can’t thrive without the ball in his hands. Duren’s collapse matters, but Cade also can’t get him the ball. The roster has real flaws, and so does Cunningham.
Detroit didn’t invest enough around Cunningham. But this the second straight postseason that his turnovers have spiked and his efficiency has cratered the moment a defense was built specifically to take away what he does. The Knicks did it. The explanation then was that he’d figure it out. He’s yet to provide an answer. And now, the Magic might have just revealed a problem much harder for Detroit to solve. The Pistons might have just found out their No. 1 isn’t a No. 1.
