What to make of AJ Dybantsa’s 3-point shooting, both at BYU and the NBA Combine

AJ Dybantsa garnered plenty of attention during his lone college campaign at BYU, and it’s only intensified in the days since the NBA draft lottery.

All eyes are on the potential No. 1 overall pick. Every word Dybantsa says is being carefully dissected; every facial expression he makes brings widespread interpretation. Some think he’s content to land in Washington, while others believe he’d prefer to remain in Utah. There’s no shortage of speculation.

And with speculation comes scrutiny.

A video was posted to X on Tuesday showing Dybantsa missing his first four 3-point attempts during a shooting drill at the NBA Combine in Chicago. The original video, which has since been deleted, quickly went viral, spurring jokes and criticism toward Dybantsa all across social media.

One popular response to the video, tongue-in-cheek or otherwise, was that Dybantsa had tanked the drill on purpose in order to avoid the Wizards and fall to the Jazz at No. 2.

It should go without saying that such a far-fetched conspiracy shouldn’t fool anyone. No one would ever advise a top prospect to deliberately hurt his own draft stock, and from what this writer has observed over the past year, Dybantsa — who has publicly shared his desire to be the No. 1 pick — is too competitive to take his foot off the gas pedal.

Besides, Dybantsa ultimately recovered from the four initial misses to finish 8 of 15 from behind the arc in that specific drill. In another video, he was seen draining 7 of 11 3-pointers. Clearly the effort was there.

And even if his results had been truly putrid, a single performance likely wouldn’t have done any lasting damage for Dybantsa.

“Everyone can have a bad day,” a Western Conference executive told the Deseret News’ Sarah Todd. “(The Combine is) a new place, an unfamiliar gym. I’m not judging anyone on what happens here. I have a whole body of work to look at.”

More of A.J. Dybantsa shooting threes at the NBA Draft combine. pic.twitter.com/E5XJupAxIS

— Chase Hughes (@chasedcsports) May 12, 2026

The viral drill video alone shouldn’t affect anyone’s opinion of Dybantsa, but the full scope of his deep shooting ability does merit some discussion ahead of June’s draft.

Dybantsa made 33% of his 3-pointers at BYU — not bad by any stretch, but certainly short of elite.

Some have compared Dybantsa to his fellow projected lottery picks, where he holds one of the lower success rates from distance, especially against Darryn Peterson (38%) and Cameron Boozer (39%).

However, to knock Dybantsa’s 3-point shooting right now would be the same as nitpicking Tom Brady for not being fast or “The Shawshank Redemption” for not being funny. You’d be missing the point.

Part of what makes Dybantsa such a tantalizing prospect — particularly on offense — is how he managed to score so profusely at BYU without much help from the perimeter.

3-pointers accounted for less than 25% of his total collegiate field goal attempts, practically serving as a bonus on top of his mid-range mastery, fearlessness in attacking the basket and knack for getting to the foul line.

Dybantsa’s national scoring title of 25.5 points per game can be broken down to 14.8 points from 2-pointers, 6.5 points from free throws and 4.2 points from threes.

When removing 3-pointers from the equation, he averaged 21.3 points per game — still good for No. 7 nationally and tops in the Big 12.

That’s not to say Dybantsa didn’t benefit from his outside shooting. He cashed 14 games of multiple 3-point makes, including a 5 of 8 showing at Oklahoma State, a 4 for 5 performance against Utah and a total 6 of 9 mark across two matchups with Houston’s notoriously stingy defense.

But there were some duds in the mix as well. Dybantsa had six nights of going 0-fer on multiple attempts, along with a couple 1 for 8 outings and a 1 of 7 finish in the NCAA Tournament against Texas — the lone blemish from his otherwise outstanding 35-point, 10-rebound effort.

Through the first 24 games of the season, Dybantsa was actually netting 37% of his triples on an average of 3.6 attempts per game. The volume wasn’t immense, but the efficiency was more than solid, especially given the large sample size.

When teammate Richie Saunders went down with a torn ACL, however, Dybantsa’s workload increased to the tune of nearly 40 minutes on the floor each night. This resulted in shooting more 3-pointers than ever before (5.6 attempts per game) while making less of them (27.4%) in the season’s final 11 games, weighing his year-end deep shooting clip down to 33%.

The most pressing area for Dybantsa to improve on the outside is his catch-and-shoot success, having made 30% of such shots at BYU (and just 27% while being guarded on those attempts), according to Sports Illustrated.

Dybantsa could avoid excessive catch-and-shoot opportunities at BYU by bolting elsewhere, but given the nature of the NBA and its defenders, he will need to embrace a more quick-trigger approach and become a better spot-up option.

“When you get to the NBA, it’s going to be a lot harder to get clean looks,” BYU head coach Kevin Young said earlier this week on ESPN. “So if you pass on an open 3, in college you might be able to get to your spot, raise up and just jump over everybody and shoot it. In the NBA … you’ve got to be able to get shots off a lot quicker.”

Transition catch and shoot three from AJ Dybantsa from the wing pic.twitter.com/81jTkCj3lv

— Mike O (@Mike_Synaptic23) April 13, 2025

There’s definitely reason to believe in Dybantsa’s 3-point shooting future. He has a smooth jumper and clean release that have proven effective in a number of spots on the floor. His ability to make tough shots in college is encouraging.

He’s an athletic workhorse, one who hit 36% of his self-created triples off the dribble at BYU in addition to 36% of his wide-open catch-and-shoot chances. Improvement for Dybantsa is necessary, but he’s far from a complete perimeter project.

NBA coaching and experience will benefit him as well — just look at fellow BYU product Egor Dëmin, who went from shooting 27.3% from 3 as a Cougar to 39.5% as a rookie with the Brooklyn Nets.

Even if nothing changes for Dybantsa as a 3-point shooter, he can still be a valuable scoring weapon at the next level thanks to his other tools.

But if he does end up improving to grow more potent and consistent from behind the arc, Dybantsa’s ceiling will rise even further to be the dynamic offensive engine for a contender, whether it be in Washington, Utah or somewhere else.

And of course, Young has total faith in his prized pupil.

“The repetition, the confidence, he’s a confident kid,” Young said. “He’ll get there from 3-point land.”