Why Padres’ Mason Miller’s Cy Young chance relies upon 71.1% strikeout rate originally appeared on The Sporting News.
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The San Diego Padres have had some great pitchers come through their organization, but the elite closer from the early 2000’s, Trevor Hoffman, is easily the best the franchise has had.
He is a Hall of Fame closer with 601 saves in his big-league career, with plenty of accolades. But he never won the NL Cy Young award, finishing in second place twice in 1998 and 2006. In 2026, Mason Miller is making his case early this season.
However, if Miller is to win the NL Cy Young award, as ESPN’s David Schoenfield highlighted, his 71.1% strikeout rate will need to stay that elite for him to have a chance for the Cy Young this season.
Mason Miller needs 71.1% SO rate to stay elite for Cy Young chance
“71.1%. That’s Mason Miller’s strikeout rate,” Schoenfield writes. “Is it too early to start thinking of a reliever as a potential Cy Young winner? It hasn’t happened since Eric Gange in 2003, but in Miller’s case it’s not out of the realm of possibility.”
Winning the NL Cy Young award as a reliever will be incredibly challenging. There will have to be a few factors at play, one of which is the rest of the starting pitchers in the NL not having elite seasons.
If Paul Skenes, Cristopher Sanchez, or Yoshinobu Yamamoto had the seasons they did a year ago, the Cy Young odds for Miller will be incredibly slim.
But if they struggle, and Miller’s dominance continues over the course of a full season, then he will have a chance.
Hoffman never won the Cy Young award, and he never once had a season with a strikeout rate over 40%. Eric Gagne has a 44.8% strikeout rate in his 2003 Cy Young season.
More: Three ways Pirates’ Paul Skenes could lose NL Cy Young Award
Miller maintaining a 70% strikeout rate for a full season would be a stunning achievement, and make his odds for the Cy Young award fairly strong.
But, more realistically, his numbers will dip a bit over the full season. However, if he can stay around a 50.0% strikeout rate while posting an ERA under 2.00, he will have a decent chance for the Cy Young award.
Add in leading the league in saves and posting a 3.0 bWAR season as a closer, and a successful season from the Padres, and Miller could have a decent chance to win the Cy Young award.
His 71.1% strikeout rate will likely be the biggest X-factor for Miller in the NL Cy Young race, and if he can keep such ridiculous production up all year, the award might be his to lose.
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