Australia vs Paraguay will be a fascinating watch for the neutral, with either side looking to claim second spot in a quietly competitive Group D.
The Socceroos hit the ground running at the 2026 World Cup with a 2-0 victory over Turkey, while Paraguay fell 4-1 to the USA.
In the second round of fixtures, the roles were reversed: USA prevailed over Australia with a 2-0 scoreline, and Paraguay stuttered to a 1-0 victory against Turkey.
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Australia vs Paraguay prediction in Group D: Will Nestory Irankunda etch his name into 2026 World Cup history?
FourFourTwo doesn’t like to only rely on statistics, but for a near guaranteed dogfight in Australia vs Paraguay, they’re of help.
In Australia’s sole victory of the tournament, the Socceroos fell on the xG scoreline vs Turkey, with 1.18 to their opponent’s 1.36.
Against the USA, they lost out again, but actually lost, this time, with 0.35 xG to the Americans’ 1.08.
In not so great contrast, Paraguay lost 4-1 to the USA, recording over one xG less than their opposition.
Against Turkey? An even more tragic story for the Turkish fans, losing 1-0 to Paraguay despite recording almost two full xG more than their opposition.
The statistics paint a clear picture: Australia and Paraguay are, hilariously, the two worst chance-creating sides in Group D.
What they are, however, is more clinical than Turkey, and less so than the USMNT, but their underperformance is virtually identical.
This is amplified by Paraguay’s red card vs Turkey, the first ever for a mouth covering incident.
That explains the greater disparity in xG than the Socceroos in their win, making them incredibly similar attacking sides in regard to conversion and chance creation.
So, what will this come down to? Australia boast a slightly more robust midfield, a better shot-stopper, but a marginally inferior defence.
The result? A game-breaker. Specifically by the name of Nestory Irankunda.
The youngster’s name has felt destined to be etched into World Cup history since his Luis Suarez-esque strike in the Socceroos’ opener against Turkey, and this is his stage.
Prediction: After a tight first half, with the Socceroos leading by one at the break, Paraguay will respond before Irankunda strikes just after the 70th.
Score: Australia 2-1 Paraguay