Fantasy Football: What 5 players must do to go from inconsistent rookies to more relevant as sophomores

Each year, the rookie hype grows as the season inches closer. Plenty of first-year players hit their ceiling potential out of the gate, but the sophomore breakout is real. Success often takes time and change. Analyst Joel Smyth breaks down what changes need to be seen for five members of last year’s rookie class to make a leap in 2026.

Emeka Egbuka, WR, Buccaneeers

It all fell apart in Week 6. Egbuka was on track to be the greatest fantasy rookie WR of all-time with 18.0 half-PPR points per game through his first five weeks. It fell apart fast, but there’s reasons that can be reversed. Egbuka ranked last in the NFL in catchable target rate, had the hardest fantasy WR schedule, dealt with a hamstring injury and had a QB dealing with health issues as well. It wasn’t a walk in the park for the rookie who showed so much promise early.​

Time should fix any injuries and help build chemistry with QB Baker Mayfield, who was much more accurate targeting receivers such as Mike Evans than Egbuka after the first month. More than anything, experience was the main issue rather than talent.​

To help boost Egbuka’s bounce-back chances, the Buccaneers brought in new play-caller Zac Robinson, who was great for fantasy players in Atlanta. They also moved on from Evans, who dropped Egbuka’s targets per route by 8% when he was on the field.

​Bottomline: What needs to stick is his versatility and volume. He played all over the field, led the NFL in average depth of target from the slot (same as Jaxon Smith-Njigba did in 2024) and finished third among receivers in air yards. If you believe in the talent, not much needs to change that hasn’t already been changed for him. There’s a risk that it was a one-month outlier that never fully meshes, or new coaching isn’t the right fit, but Tampa Bay’s offseason moves wouldn’t suggest this to be the case. The Buccaneers drafted a WR in Round 1 in 2025 when they didn’t “need” to for a reason, and the moves made this offseason set Egbuka up for success if healthy.

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TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Patriots

From Weeks 9-12, Henderson scored 19.4 fantasy PPG on nearly 20 touches per game as Rhamondre Stevenson was banged up. It’s what fantasy managers had waited two months for and would’ve been worth the wait if it hadn’t disappeared as fast as it developed. After Stevenson struggled with ball security early on, it seemed his injury was the turning point for the Patriots’ second-round pick. Yet upon Stevenson’s return, Henderson fell back to a single-digit fantasy player who only got worse in the NFL playoffs.​

Several things need to change for Henderson, with the hope of being a fantasy RB1, which is clearly within the range of outcomes from what he showed on his best days in 2025. First: pass blocking. The dirty work was Stevenson’s speciality as a veteran and Henderson’s downfall. He was widely touted as a great pass blocker in college, but struggled in his rookie season, ranking 50th in PFF’s pass blocking grade, while Stevenson ranked third. As a result, his snaps in the two-minute offense were nonexistent, and his pass-catching role diminished late in the season. Having a full offseason of development should do wonders to get Henderson back to his college pass pro level.

The second reason was his rushing ability outside of his explosiveness. Henderson broke multiple huge runs, similar to how he did at Ohio State, but as an every-down between the tackles runner, he was sub-par. That led to 37.7% of Henderson’s yards coming after contact, the lowest in the NFL. Basically, when he didn’t hit an open lane and breakaway, he was going down easy, especially in the inside run game. It’s another reason why Stevenson had the primary red-zone role, as well as being the more trusted goal-line back.

​Bottomline: In order to be a top-20 fantasy RB in 2026, Henderson has to clean up his pass blocking substantially, while being able to shrug off tacklers when given the opportunity. Stevenson can get the job done, but Henderson has the true game-breaking talent if he can become a reliable player throughout his game.

Matthew Golden, WR, Packers

Opportunity is for the taking in Green Bay, and Golden must find his role. There was not much positive in Year 1, as he was limited to only one game with over 60 receiving yards and failed to score a single TD. He became one of seven first-round picks at WRs with zero top-20 fantasy weeks as a rookie since 2015, joining a scary list of John Ross, Jalen Reagor, N’Keal Harry, Laquon Treadwell, Josh Doctson and Mike Williams.

The main issue for Golden was that he could not find a role in which he thrived. With so much competition, he ultimately played a nameless role when players were healthy. He played 49% of snaps in the slot … until Jayden Reed came back. He had 25% of the team air yards and plenty of deep targets … until Christian Watson came back. It didn’t just dip but completely vanished, I’m talking 5%(!) of the Packers’ air yards to pair with his 3% red-zone target share. He was a fill-in receiver rather than a first-round star.

​Bottomline: To become a usable fantasy receiver, his best path is as a downfield weapon. Fifty-five percent of his receiving yards came via deep targets in 2025; the role just wasn’t there when Watson returned. Tucker Kraft and Jayden Reed will be the primary screen receivers, forcing Golden to have to pick up what Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks left behind. Golden needs to prove himself as an equal to Watson in the deep passing game, while also shoring up his ability as an intermediate threat. With only eight targets coming in the intermediate area of the field last season, Golden needs to become a more reliable option in 2026. The Packers seem to think he can, given their offseason moves to date, but Golden must be the primary beneficiary of the 30% vacated WR target share.

Cam Ward​, QB, Titans

It was a rough season for the 2025 No. 1 overall pick, averaging a low 11.1 fantasy PPG. There was promise in a dark season. Ward immediately played the hardest fantasy QB schedule in the NFL and had the highest avoided sack rate as he ran for his life. The odds were against him, and the odds won. It wasn’t until his final month that it began to come together, with the rookie QB averaging 15.3 PPG in his final four weeks.

Tennessee began a complete overhaul to help its young quarterback develop into a franchise player. Robert Saleh comes in as head coach with former Giants head coach Brian Daboll as offensive coordinator. A new offense comes with new weapons, primarily the fourth overall selection, Carnell Tate, a WR out of Ohio State. Wan’Dale Robinson is also now in the mix. The offense will be unrecognizable from the 2025 version with Brian Callahan. The former Titans coach is most similar to a West Coast passing offense, asking a lot of the quarterback with a pass-first mindset. Daboll is known for being QB-friendly, molding his offense around his players’ strengths as he did with Josh Allen and Jaxson Dart. Maybe that means more RPOs and simple throws for Ward in 2026, but it at minimum gives him a more proven system to work under.

Bottomline: To break out as a true fantasy QB1 or superflex QB2, Ward needs to take advantage of his new receivers and coaching to maximize his big-play ability we saw in college. He is not the kind of QB who will go out and run for 50 yards a game, but he is a scrambling, aggressive QB who takes shots. When he attempted to do that last season, he ranked last in completion percentage on throws 15+ yards downfield, even though these were not the plays in which he was under pressure. He was only throwing downfield when in a clean pocket, and not doing so accurately. The offensive line is a concern, with very few additions this offseason so far, with rumors of more to come. Ward’s fantasy money maker has to be the big plays downfield, meaning he needs a more accurate Year 2 when kept clean, while also making plays on the move when necessary to his (now) more talented receivers. Tate should be the perfect fit for Ward’s abilities, the best contested catch and deep ball receiver in the class, who can mask some of Ward’s mistakes from his rookie season.

RJ Harvey, RB, Broncos​

Harvey will benefit this offseason from many fantasy football managers paying less attention after title matchups were settled in Week 17. Following J.K. Dobbins’ injury, Denver’s rookie RB took over with a substantial increase in volume. He was scoring receiving touchdowns early on, but was heavily limited by the presence of Dobbins before the injury, only handling 24% of the rushing attempts. Although he averaged 15.3 fantasy PPG from Week 11 to the end of the fantasy season, from Week 18 to the AFC title game, Harvey fizzled out with 6.9 PPG and under 30 rushing yards on average.​

Some rookies take time, but Harvey really struggled when breaking down his efficiency numbers (he may not have been getting many early opportunities for a reason). After failing to break 50 rush yards in each of his first five games, Harvey finished the season 42nd out of 49 running backs in yards per attempt. Now, I don’t think that’s usually a good stat to measure an RB’s success, but in Harvey’s case, with a great offensive line and Dobbins ranking seventh-best, it’s a red flag. He was also last when you remove 20+ yard runs, showing a lack of consistency play to play as he struggled to hit holes with haste and failed to produce after contact.

Bottomline: With Jonah Coleman coming in as extra RB competition and Dobbins returning in 2026, Harvey will need to prove he can be reliable on the ground as much as he is in the passing game. Experience and familiarity should help. One key area that needs to be fixed is Harvey had the second-longest time behind the line of scrimmage on average. The holes are there, Dobbins proved it, Harvey just needs to grow his vision in Year 2. Playmaking on the ground in general would be No. 2. The former UCF RB displayed this in high fashion in college, which was part of the reason his draft stock rose so high. It might be tentativeness, but Harvey needs to put himself in situations where he can shrug off the contact rather than bear the brunt of the force.

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