For much of this decade, Iga Swiatek has been the default favorite at the French Open — which makes sense given that she won it in 2020, 2022, 2023 and 2024.
But times have changed in women’s tennis. Swiatek not only lost her No. 1 ranking to Aryna Sabalenka over the last couple years, she’s no longer dominant on clay and comes to Roland Garros having not won a title yet in 2026.
So who is the favorite at the season’s second Grand Slam?
Though No. 1-ranked Aryna Sabalenka deserves to be the favorite for the French Open, it’s been a strange clay court season for her thus far. Practically unbeatable for the last couple years except by the very top players, she comes into Roland Garros after losses to opponents ranked outside the top-20 in Madrid and Rome, the two big clay tournaments preceding the French Open.
Was Sabalenka merely leaving something in the tank for Paris, or is she suffering a slight dip in form? If she fails to win her first French title, the tournament will be wide open, as many of the typical favorites are not playing their best tennis at the moment.
Women’s favorites to make the final: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elina Svitolina
Svitolina, the 31-year old from Ukraine, might be a better player now — almost four years after giving birth to her daughter Skai — than she was when she reached No. 3 in the world in 2017. After reaching her first Australian Open semifinal to start this season, she just took home the Italian Open trophy by beating Elena Rybakina, Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff. A five-time quarterfinalist at Roland Garros, she has a real chance to win her first Grand Slam title and will have the French crowd on her side given that her husband, Gael Monfils, is playing for the final time in Paris before retirement.
Favorite to be the last American standing: Coco Gauff
Last year’s champion has had a bit of an uneven year with some really good results (finals in Miami and Rome) mixed with occasional poor play. Gauff has made some technical adjustments on her serve over the last year, but it’s still a bit unreliable under pressure and there’s no telling whether her game will be on or off on a given day. But Gauff is still such a competitor that she can win matches without her best stuff and should at least make the quarterfinals here.
Three first-round matches worth watching
Iva Jovic (17) vs. Alexandra Eala
Just 18, Jovic broke into the top-20 after making the quarterfinals in Australia to start the year and is poised to stay there for a very long time with her elite ballstriking ability. Eala, the charismatic 20-year old who has brought Filipino fans to tennis by the millions, just missed out on being seeded. This should be a real battle.
Hailey Baptiste (26) vs. Barbora Krejcikova
Baptiste, the 24-year old from Washington, D.C., has risen to new career highs this year thanks to big results like a quarterfinal in Miami and a semifinal in Madrid, the latter of which featured a three-set win over Sabalenka. Krejcikova’s ranking is down in the 40s at the moment due to a leg injury earlier this year, but she’s as good as anyone on tour when she’s right physically — as evidenced by her French Open title in 2021 and Wimbledon title two years ago.
Coco Gauff (4) vs. Taylor Townsend
Two of the most popular American women will face off to start the tournament. Interestingly, they have only played once in singles — and it was way back in 2019 when Townsend won 6-1 in the third set in Charleston. Though Townsend is one of the best doubles players in the world, she’s ranked just 72nd in singles, which makes Gauff a clear favorite here. But Townsend has pulled some singles upsets in Slams before and Gauff will not be taking this matchup lightly.
Three potential matchups we’d love to see
Coco Gauff (4) vs. Amanda Anisimova (6) in the quarterfinal
Everyone has been waiting for Anisimova to win her first Slam after making the finals of Wimbledon and the U.S. Open last year, but she’ll potentially have to go through Gauff and Sabalenka just to make the final. They have unfortunately only played once in the last 3 ½ years.
Jelena Ostapenko (29) vs. Iga Swiatek (3) in the third round
The hard-hitting, often volatile Ostapenko has been Swiatek’s kryptonite for years, beating her all six times they’ve played. Swiatek, who has won the French Open four times, will have a huge mental challenge if this matchup materializes — even at her favorite tournament.
Mirra Andreeva (8) vs. Elena Rybakina (2) in the quarterfinal
Though Rybakina beat her pretty handily on indoor clay earlier this year in Stuttgart, this has been a back-and-forth rivalry matching Rybakina’s offensive game versus Andreeva’s counterpunching and tactical manipulation. Still just 19, Andreeva made the semis here two years ago and isn’t too far away from putting it all together and winning a Slam.
Three longshots who could go deep
Victoria Mboko (9)
The 19-year old Canadian has not had ideal preparation for this tournament after dealing with an elbow injury, wisdom teeth removal and a stomach illness that forced her to withdraw from Rome. But making the third-round at Roland Garros last year launched her remarkably fast rise into the top-10.
Dayana Yastremska (unseeded)
Though one of the more erratic players on the women’s tour, when Yastremska is good, she’s really good. And she might be on one of those hot runs after winning a minor title in Italy last week. Yastremska landed in a pretty open quarter of the draw and could easily upset No. 13 seed Jasmine Paolini in the first round.
Lois Boisson (unseeded)
She was the story of the tournament last year, making the semifinals as the 361st-ranked player in the world. Though Boisson’s results lately have not been very good, her first-round opponent Anna Kalinskaya has never played well at Roland Garros. If Boisson gets by that one, the draw might open up again for her to make a run.
With two-time defending champion Carlos Alcaraz sidelined by a wrist injury, the French Open may seem like a little bit of a letdown. Sadly, we won’t get a repeat of last year’s final when he came back from two sets down and saved three match points to beat Jannik Sinner in arguably the best match of the decade.
But Alcaraz’s absence means opportunity — either for Sinner to complete the career Grand Slam, for Novak Djokovic to win his 25th major title or someone else to grab a rare title of this magnitude in the Alcaraz/Sinner era.
Even if Alcaraz was healthy, Sinner would still be the favorite to win this tournament based on what has happened over the last couple months. Since losing to Djokovic in the Australian Open semifinals, Sinner has been on an incredible heater, winning 29 matches in a row and sweeping the Masters 1000 titles in Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome.
Sinner should win this tournament. But without Alcaraz in the mix, this might be the most pressure he’s ever felt with the winning streak and career Slam on his shoulders.
Favorites to make the final: Jannik Sinner (1) vs. Arthur Fils (17)
Yes, we’re calling it now. This is going to be the big breakthrough for Fils, the 21-year old Frenchman who has come back from last year’s back injury with a vengeance, winning a big clay title in Barcelona last month and reaching the semifinals in Madrid. Fils’ forehand is as good as anyone’s, and the French are going to be out in full force behind their charismatic future superstar. With Alexander Zverev managing a bit of a back issue the last few weeks, the bottom half of the draw is there for the taking.
Favorite to be the last American standing: Learner Tien (18)
Though he’s still got a lot to learn on clay, Tien has the right game style and the right coach — 1989 French Open champ Michael Chang — to make something happen in Paris. He’s also got the right draw, landing in a quarter of the draw headlined by noted clay hater Daniil Medvedev and Felix Auger-Aliassime, who has been in spotty form of late. Don’t be surprised if the 20-year old from Southern California follows up his Australian Open quarterfinal appearance with another deep run.
Three first-round matches worth watching
Novak Djokovic (3) vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Djokovic should be able to handle this matchup, but the 6-foot-7 Mpetshi Perricard is the biggest server on tour, which makes it a little bit scary. Djokovic will certainly do everything he can to get into rallies, where Mpetshi Perricard’s game tends to break down, but it’s unclear what kind of form the 38-year old Djokovic is in. Since the Australian Open final loss to Alcaraz, he’s only played four matches and lost to Dino Prizmic in the first round of Rome a couple weeks ago.
Arthur Fils (17) vs. Stan Wawrinka
There was a gasp in the room when this match popped up on the screen at the Roland Garros draw event. Wawrinka, 41, is making his last run through the circuit before retirement and there will be a lot of sentimental value to seeing him play for the last time in Paris, where he won in 2015. Given his recent results, it would be stunning if Wawrinka made this competitive, but sometimes the old greats can muster one last big performance on this kind of stage.
Francisco Cerundolo vs. Botic Van de Zandschulp
Ok, we may be reaching here, but there aren’t a lot of first-round matchups that pop off the screen this year. And if you like guys who can flat-out crank it from the baseline, these two are always worth the watch.
Three potential matchups we’d love to see
Novak Djokovic (3) vs. Joao Fonseca (28) in the third round
Tennis sometimes gives us great inter-generational battles at the Slams, and it would be fitting to see the 19-year old Fonseca — who has the makings of a future superstar — get a crack at Djokovic in his twilight. Fonseca hasn’t won as much yet as many predicted, but close losses earlier this year to Alcaraz and Sinner suggest he’s getting close to a big breakthrough.
Ben Shelton (5) vs. Frances Tiafoe (19) in the fourth round
These two Americans have had a couple of awesome battles at the U.S. Open, but how would it look on clay? It would be cool to find out — and both have shown enough proficiency on the surface to advance this far. Tiafoe made the quarterfinals in Paris last year, while Shelton won the ATP 500-level title in Munich last month.
Gael Monfils vs. Daniil Medvedev (6) in the third round
Monfils, 39, is making his final run in Paris after being the face of men’s tennis in France for many years. Though his career perhaps did not live up to what some thought it might be — semifinals at Roland Garros in 2008 and the U.S. Open in 2016 are his best Slam results — he’s been a true entertainer and gentleman who is beloved by fans all over the world. A match against Medvedev, whose over-the-top antics make him a terrific heel, could turn into a wild scene.
Three longshots who could go deep
Rafael Jodar (27)
Yes, Spain keeps producing ridiculous tennis players. And this 19-year old from Madrid has kind of come out of nowhere. After playing a season at University of Virginia, Jodar turned pro and has risen from outside the top-150 to No. 29 in just a few months. After quarterfinals in Madrid and Rome, he’s got a real chance to make noise in his first Roland Garros.
Alexander Blockx
Given the spelling of his last name — it’s pronounced “blocks” — the 21-year old from Belgium stands out on any draw. But he’s going to be a big problem for many years to come at the French Open given his proficiency on clay, piling up wins recently over the likes of Casper Ruud, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Tallon Griekspoor and Flavio Cobolli. He’s legit and has a pretty interesting second-round matchup against No. 8 seed Alex de Minaur, who’s been struggling since late February.
Valentin Vacherot (16)
Arguably the best story in men’s tennis over the last year, this guy was basically a journeyman struggling to get out of the Challenger Tour until lightning struck last fall when he came through qualifying to win the Masters 1000 title in Shanghai as the 204th-ranked player in the world. But it doesn’t look like a fluke. Since then, Vacherot has had some good results and seems poised to stay in the top-20 for a good stretch. The 27-year old from Monaco could be a sneaky semifinal threat coming out of that wide-open Auger-Aliassime/Medvedev quarter.