LOUISVILLE, Ky. — With 20 horses and so many different kinds of bets offered on the Kentucky Derby, it’s often hard to know where to begin. But without a strong favorite this year, there are some interesting opportunities to make money — if we’ve handicapped the race well.
In general, the Kentucky Derby makes more sense if you can break the race down into tiers.
The Tier A horses that I think are most likely to win the race, in order of preference, are Emerging Market, So Happy, Chief Wallabee, Further Ado, The Puma and Commandment. Given that Emerging Market is my overall pick to win the race, I’m going to key him in several exotic bets and give myself a chance to win something if he finishes anywhere in the top three.
The Tier B horses that I believe have an outside shot to win are Renegade, Potente and Danon Bourbon.
The Tier C horses that I think could hit the board and juice up trifecta or superfecta payouts are Incredibolt and Golden Tempo.
For betting purposes, I’m going to just toss everyone else. With a $100 bankroll to bet the Derby, you have to make some choices and I see a pretty big dividing line between Incredibolt and Golden Tempo and the rest of the longshots.
Here’s how I plan to spread out that $100 bankroll:
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$10 to win on Emerging Market, hoping to get odds somewhere around 10-1.
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$2 exactas with Emerging Market over all the Tier A horses ($10 total)
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$2 exactas with the Tier A horses over Emerging Market ($10 total)
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$5 to win on Potente simply because you don’t often get a Bob Baffert horse with a chance at this big of a price
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.50 cent trifecta with Emerging Market over the Tier A+Tier B+Tier C horses in the second and third slots ($36)
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.50 cent trifecta with the Tier A+Tier B horses on top of Emerging Market in the second slot on top of the Tier A + Tier C horses ($25.50) in the third slot.
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.10 cent trifecta with the Tier A horses + Tier B horses on top of the Tier A + Tier C horses on top of Emerging market ($5.10)
That comes out to $101.60, which is just a smidge over budget, but we’ll make it work. If Emerging Market hits the board, we have enough combinations here to get a decent shot at an exacta or trifecta payoff. If he doesn’t, we’ll either root for Potente to save us or go home with our tail between our legs and wait for next year.
Either way, good luck to everyone, enjoy Derby Day and, most of all, be responsible and don’t bet more than you can afford to lose.