It’s going to be a while before Pat Kelsey pencils in the first Louisville basketball starting lineup of the 2026-27 season.
The process of determining the first five will begin soon, though, when the Cardinals report to campus for summer workouts.
Kelsey is, essentially, starting from scratch in Year 3. The coach lost 11 members of his 2025-26 roster and returns only one player who logged minutes for him during the campaign.
The newcomers? They’re talented. So much so that UofL’s nine-man incoming class — six NCAA transfer portal additions, three freshmen — ranked fifth on 247Sports’ national leaderboard as of May 28.
Now, Kelsey gets to have some fun seeing how all of the pieces fit together.
While that process plays out, here’s our prediction for what Louisville’s starting lineup will be when the season begins:
Jackson Shelstad
Kelsey locked down Jackson Shelstad within a week of the portal opening — passing the Point Guard U torch from a one-and-done lottery pick in Mikel Brown Jr. to a seasoned veteran who’s started 77 of his 79 appearances at the Division I level.
An injured shooting hand derailed Shelstad’s junior season at Oregon. But, in the 12 games the 6-foot-1 floor general was available, he improved upon a sophomore campaign that saw him earn third-team All-Big Ten honors, averaging a career-best 15.6 points, 4.9 assists and 1.4 steals across 34.8 minutes per contest. His 31.7% assist rate ranked ninth in the conference last season, per BartTorvik.com. His 12.6% turnover rate was third-lowest among the league’s top 10 facilitators.
Sounds like someone who meets Kelsey’s PG1 criteria: “Give the ball to them at 7 p.m., and they give it back to you safe and sound at 9 p.m.” The question is how the coach will refine the West Linn, Oregon, native’s game as the conductor of a rotation that looks a bit different from what we’ve grown accustomed to seeing at the KFC Yum! Center. Shelstad, per CBBAnalytics.com, ranked in the 98th percentile with 10.6 shots attempted either at the rim or beyond the arc per contest in 2025-26. In that regard, he should feel right at home in the 502.
Adrian Wooley
Adrian Wooley offers some much-needed continuity to an otherwise overhauled roster, and the former top-10 transfer should benefit from a more clearly defined role than he had in his first season at Louisville.
Wooley, a 6-4 rising junior, averaged 8.7 points on 45% shooting (35% from 3), 3.9 rebounds and 1.8 assists across 22.5 minutes per appearance in 2025-26. He embraced the challenge of running the point when called upon to replace Mikel Brown Jr. in the starting lineup, but it was clear the Tuscaloosa, Alabama, native is much better off as a more traditional shooting guard who focuses on creating his own shot over creating for others.
With a season of competing at the high-major level in Kelsey’s system under his belt, Wooley is primed to put his best foot forward in 2026-27. He’ll need to step up defensively because one of the country’s best perimeter stoppers, Dayton transfer De’Shayne Montgomery, is going to command playing time, too.
Karter Knox
Karter Knox starting at the 3 would signal Kelsey wants to change things up this season.
Louisville leaned on a three-guard lineup in 2025-26 — typically, a combination of Brown, Wooley, Ryan Conwell and Isaac McKneely. In Knox, a former McDonald’s All-American, the Cards are turning to a more prototypical wing: bigger, stronger, more athletic and more versatile defensively.
The 6-6 native of Tampa, Florida, should arrive to campus with a chip on his shoulder after an injury-plagued sophomore season at Arkansas that ended Feb. 19, when he underwent a procedure to repair the meniscus in his left knee. Knox’s career stat line doesn’t jump off the page — 8.2 points on 46.1% shooting (36.1% from 3), 3.8 rebounds and 1.1 assists across 23.3 minutes per appearance. But his best moments with the Razorbacks suggest he has loads of potential to tap into at UofL.
Alvaro Folgueiras
One stat explains why Iowa transfer Alvaro Folgueiras is our pick to start at the 4 when Louisville’s season tips off.
Per Torvik: The 6-10 rising senior from Spain was one of two D-I players who, across 50% or more of their team’s available minutes in 2025-26, posted an offensive rating of 120 or better, a defensive box plus-minus of +3 or better, a defensive rebounding rate of 18% or better and an assist rate of 20% or better. The other player? Duke freshman phenom Cameron Boozer.
We’re not saying Folgueiras will make a jump from sixth man to Naismith Trophy winner. He did, after all, average only 8.4 points, 3.6 rebounds and 2.2 assists across 20 minutes per appearance during his first season at the high-major level. But the rising senior has the size and the skillset to be an ideal stretch forward for this lineup — and offers more than 100 games of collegiate experience to boot. Whether or not he holds onto a starting spot depends on how Kelsey wants to approach the Cards’ frontcourt rotation. More on that below.
Flory Bidunga
Last but not least: Flory Bidunga — considered by many to be the top player who entered the portal this spring. Having withdrawn from the 2026 NBA Draft, the 6-foot-10 Congolese forward is a lock to anchor Louisville’s frontcourt.
The Cards haven’t had a big man of Bidunga’s archetype under Kelsey, and you’ll be hard-pressed to find one as dominant as the reigning Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year anywhere else in the country this season. As a sophomore at Kansas, he was the only D-I player in 2025-26 to average more than 13 points (13.3 on 64% shooting), 8.5 rebounds (nine) and 2.5 blocks (2.6).
Here’s where things get really interesting. In addition to Bidunga, UofL has 7-foot freshman Obinna Ekezie Jr., who will step foot on campus as the No. 1 center in the Class of 2026 despite reclassifying to begin his college career a year ahead of schedule. Depending on how Ekezie acclimates in the coming months, Kelsey could opt to start him at the 5 and Bidunga at the 4 — pushing Folgueiras to the bench. No matter what the coach chooses, it’s nice to have that kind of upside and flexibility in an area that was a glaring weakness for his team last season.
Reach Louisville men’s basketball reporter Brooks Holton at bholton@gannett.com and follow him on X at @brooksHolton.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Louisville basketball 2026-27 lineup prediction for Pat Kelsey Year 3