The Western Conference’s top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder, the defending NBA champions, will play the seconded-seeded San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference finals of the 2026 NBA playoffs. The two franchises last faced off in the postseason a decade ago, when the Kevin Durant/Russell Westbrook/James Harden-led Thunder defeated the Spurs in Tim Duncan’s last playoff series in 2016.
Schedule| Odds|Thunder breakdown| Spurs breakdown
Head-to-head| Matchup to watch|Key question| Prediction
Series schedule (all times Eastern)
Game 1: Mon., May 18 at Oklahoma City (8:30 p.m., NBC/Peacock)
Game 2: Wed., May 20 at Oklahoma City (8:30 p.m., NBC/Peacock)
Game 3: Fri., May 22 at San Antonio (8:30 p.m., NBC/Peacock)
Game 4: Sun., May 24 at San Antonio (8:30 p.m., NBC/Peacock)
Game 5: Tue., May 26 at Oklahoma City (8:30 p.m., NBC/Peacock) *
Game 6: Thu., May 28 at San Antonio (8:30 p.m., NBC/Peacock)*
Game 7: Sat., May 30 at Oklahoma City (8 p.m., NBC/Peacock) *
*if necessary
Series odds
Oklahoma City Thunder (-260)
San Antonio Spurs (+210)
What we know about the Thunder
That this team is much more than the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander show. In the second round, the Lakers boldly attempted to limit the reigning MVP (a now two-time award winner) with a combination of Marcus Smart as the primary point-of-attack defender and a rotating cast of less-equipped teammates. And through three games, it (kinda?) worked, “holding” Gilgeous-Alexander to 63 points on 48 shots and forcing 12 turnovers.
The only issue was that, where Los Angeles tried (and ultimately failed) to shift its heliocentric offense from Luka Dončić to LeBron James, Oklahoma City worked in reverse. The Thunder’s approach was simplified — less Gilgeous-Alexander meant more touches for Ajay Mitchell, Jared McCain and Chet Holmgren, multi-faceted options capable of initiating offense in pinches, sustaining runs with quality shooting and putting pressure on defenses. The Thunder are rooted in efficiency, working smarter and not harder, attempting the fewest passes per game but averaging a shade off the most assists in the playoffs thus far.
Their ability to function without relying on SGA every time down the floor has also helped them when he’s off the floor altogether. The Thunder have outscored opponents by 59 points over the course of nearly 200 possessions and 100 minutes of non-Gilgeous-Alexander time in the playoffs.
San Antonio is a much more capable defensive unit than Los Angeles — with the very large Frenchman patrolling the restricted area as a deterrent — but its hopes for an upset must involve cutting off the water supply to the Thunder’s various roots (including All-NBA guard Jalen Williams, who is healthy enough to return), not simply the base.
What we know about the Spurs
Victor Wembanyama remains the straw that stirs the drink, but their guard-centric attack is getting better with time, reps and experience. Think of the Spurs — or the triumvirate of De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper in particular — as three starter Pokemon, all with individual strengths and weaknesses. Fox’s best quality is his speed, Castle’s is his strength and Harper is a youthful combination of both worlds. Head coach Mitch Johnson is extremely comfortable with any combination of the three, whether it’s Fox and Castle, Fox and Harper or even Castle and Harper, generating success regardless of configurations. (San Antonio’s net rating with Fox/Castle and Castle/Harper would rank tops in the league and Fox/Harper would place them right below Boston in fourth.)
Not only are the three of them quality playmakers with high assist-to-turnover ratios — especially impressive for the likes of Castle and Harper in their first postseason go-around — there’s enough shooting to keep defenses honest all while affording Wembanyama enough time and space to operate. Through eight games, Castle is shooting an impressive 44% from 3-point range, with Harper clocking in at 37.6% and Fox right around 35%. All three also do a good enough job getting to the free-throw line, with Castle in a tier of his own thanks to his bullyball nature, but Fox and Harper ranked in the 60th percentile in free throw rate as well.
Head-to-head
If this series goes the distance, these two teams will have faced each other 12(!) times this season. San Antonio won four of the five regular-season meetings, outscoring Oklahoma City by a convincing margin of 47 points.
The first meeting, a 111-109 thriller (and the Spurs’ official coming out party), came in December during the NBA Cup semifinal. Wembanyama came off the bench and played just 21 minutes (as part of his conditioning return from a calf injury), but led the team in plus-minus (+21). Gilgeous-Alexander finished with 29 points on 23 shots and turned the ball over five times, as San Antonio enacted a smart, aggressive scheme to limit drives. The Thunder struggled from 3-point range, converting just nine of their 37 attempts.
The rematch 10 days later was even more convincing, a 130-110 walloping. Again, the Thunder had their original starting lineup from their Finals win and Wembanyama was deployed off the bench, but that wasn’t enough to overcome what was quickly becoming a pesky Spurs group that shot 54% from the field, 40% from 3 and 86% from the line.
After a third-straight defeat, with Wembanyama again not in the starting lineup, Oklahoma City’s frustrations began to seep through. Fox led all scorers with 29 points, Gilgeous-Alexander struggled (22 points on 19 shots) and the Spurs simply looked like the better team despite what the standings showed. “You don’t lose to a team three times in a row in a short span without them being better than you,” Gilgeous-Alexander said after the 117-102 loss. “We have to get better, look in the mirror, and that’s everybody from top to bottom.”
It’s somewhat ironic that by the fourth meeting in January — with Wembanyama in the starting lineup, and the Thunder missing Isaiah Hartenstein and inserting Cason Wallace and Aaron Wiggins into the starting lineup due to injuries — Oklahoma City cruised to a 119-98 victory behind SGA’s 34-point, 5-rebound, 5-assist, 4-block masterclass. (The fifth and final matchup in February should be taken with a grain of salt, with the Thunder missing their entire starting lineup.)
Matchup to watch
Wembanyama vs. the world
Because there is no such thing as a “Wemby stopper,” expect the Thunder to cycle a number of defenders on the 7-4 center. Williams has taken the bulk of the responsibility, with Oklahoma City trusting his unique combination of length, size and physicality, but it won’t be a one-man show. Here’s how it looked during the regular season:
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Jalen Williams – 55.3 possessions, 14 points on 7-for-14 shooting, two turnovers
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Alex Caruso – 32.4 possessions, 7 points on 2-for-5 shooting, two turnovers
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Chet Holmgren – 29.8 possessions, 22 points on 9-for-17 shooting, one turnover
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Jaylin Williams – 23.2 possessions, 7 points on 3-for-7 shooting, two turnovers
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Aaron Wiggins – 21.5 possessions, 21 points on 10-for-16 shooting, three turnovers
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Cason Wallace – 21.1 possessions, 25 points on 10-for-16 shooting, three turnovers
The playoffs, of course, are never a direct reflection on the regular season (keep Wallace and Wiggins far, far away), but I’d expect the four most frequent Wembanyama defenders to keep him occupied — with the insertion of Lu Dort as a nice change-of-pace option. Wembanyama’s rim rate has increased from the regular season, along with his efficiency, hitting over 80% of such shots, meaning the Thunder will force him further away from the rim, daring him to attack in isolation. Oklahoma City’s compact shell (or 10 feet in, as I like to call it) should create such opportunities, which will be one of the more fascinating chess matches in recent memory.
Key question
Can San Antonio hit enough corner 3s to capitalize on Oklahoma City’s gamble?
During the regular season, the Spurs were 14th in 3s attempted (37.9) and 15th in conversion rate (35.9%). In the playoffs, their frequency has dipped (32.5), but their efficiency has jumped (38.4%, third-best). This is in part due to Castle’s improvement, as well as the presence of Julian Champagnie.
As I referred to earlier, the Thunder utilize a very compact defensive shell, keeping all five players close to one another to protect the rim, funnel action toward the middle and cause chaos. What that does, because no scheme is foolproof, is leave the corners exposed. Second Spectrum defines “open” shots as ones where the closest defender is four-to-six feet away; Oklahoma City allows the third-most such shots per game, but because opponents are shooting just 35.4% on those, the gamble pays off more times than not. The Spurs, tied with the Knicks, led the league in corner 3s during the regular season and shot nearly 40%, good for eighth among all teams. In the playoffs, however, those numbers have plummeted, taking less corner 3s and converting only 33% of them, which is fourth-worst among playoff teams.
Getting more production out of Devin Vassell is a good start, but the Spurs will need to clean that up or else Oklahoma City will hammer them in the half-court.
Prediction: Spurs in 7
Let’s get weird. The Thunder are everything an NBA franchise dreams of — depth, an uber-efficient star, a stellar defense and a true tactician on the sidelines. The Spurs possess all of those qualities as well, plus have the hunger to create an upset and a French force that no one seems to have an answer for. Oklahoma City should get back to their second consecutive NBA Finals, but San Antonio officially plants its flag in the ground for the next half-decade.