Thunder offseason outlook: Yes, they have a big Chet Holmgren problem

In a shocking turn of events, the Oklahoma City Thunder’s quest to repeat as NBA champions did not come to fruition, falling to the San Antonio Spurs in seven games in the Western Conference finals.

We could spend this whole segment discussing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP season, but instead we have a more pressing subject at hand.

Chet Holmgren, Oh Brother, Where Are Thou?

The 7-foot-1 center has a 25% max contract extension (five-year, $239 million), which triggers next month, and the overarching question right now is: Will this be a problem for the Thunder?

Holmgren not only disappeared in Game 7, taking just two shots, but looked terrified throughout the series.

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As someone who has watched the NBA, thoroughly, for over 27 years, I have never seen this level of fear in someone’s eyes before.

Not only did Holmgren get bullied, multiple times, by Julian Champagnie off the dribble, but Holmgren often didn’t even look at the rim when guarded by Victor Wembanyama.

On the very, very rare occasion he mustered the courage to take a shot, Wembanyama rejected him, claiming his soul in the process.

It will take an enormous mental effort from Holmgren to recover from this series, and frankly … he might not. This felt like a career-defining moment and something that could linger for years.

Let’s hope that isn’t the case.

Record: 64-18, first in the Western Conference. Lost to the San Antonio Spurs in seven games in the Western Conference finals.

Whenever a player wins MVP, that automatically becomes the highlight. Gilgeous-Alexander was phenomenal all year, averaging 31.1 points and 6.6 assists, playing rock-solid defense and being an efficiency darling (66.5 TS%) to claim the honor for the second consecutive season. He’s still in his prime, and as long as OKC has SGA, it has a legit superstar with whom to pursue a title.

Jalen Williams
Chet Holmgren
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Alex Caruso
Isaiah Joe
Aaron Wiggins
Jaylin Williams
Cason Wallace
Nikola Topić
Thomas Sorber
Jared McCain

Isaiah Hartenstein (Team option)
Lu Dort (Team option)

$193,339,150

Nos. 12, 17 & 37

Draft focus: The Thunder might be making a few deals on draft night, but if they don’t, identifying cheaper replacements for Dort and Hartenstein should be heavily prioritized to optimize their cap sheet. The Thunder are very expensive, and the more inexpensive talent, the better.

The Thunder have picks to use in trades, but are almost assuredly capped out, to the point where they’d have to relinquish players in order to have spending power. Moving valuable contributors seems far-fetched, so assume they won’t have any significant financial flexibility.

The goal remains the same: Winning another title. But to do so means leaning into fulfilling some needs, such as optimizing their big man rotation, and perhaps identifying a player who could compete against Wembanyama long-term. Aday Mara, anyone?

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